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top two raised and barreled

BigOwl Posts: 80Member
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Been at table for about 3 hours. Villain seems average haven't played many hands with him, or seen him get out of line. Effective stacks are 850. I raise to 20 in MP with AspadeJheart, folds to him on button and he calls.
flop $45
AclubJspade9diamond I cbet 30 and he raises to 75 I call
turn $195
6heart I check he bets 175 call
river $545
6club check he bets 360

Comments

  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,085Subscriber
    Your bet on the flop is only 30.. that means his min raise could easily be just an ace.. AK probably. Most players on this board would flat a set so I think you are almost always good here..

    ww
  • BigOwl Posts: 80Member
    With no 3bet pre and the fact that many would showdown AK when I called a raise and a 175 turn bet I'm discounting AK some. You just don't see people three barreling $600 off with one pair or a bluff very often.
  • DavidChan Posts: 1,208Pro
    Because the "average" Villain called our MP raise from the BTN, he could have A9o and definitely A9s in his range. For this reason, I definitely do not think we can fold our hand until Villain bets big on the river.

    At this point, we should probably be honest with ourselves about the aggression level of the Villain. I find that the "average" Villain at the 2/5 level is way too passive. So, I would be surprised that he would bet big with A9 on the river. I would expect an average Villain to bet smaller or check back with A9 because "average" 2/5 players are usually showdown monkeys.

    Anyway, we are facing a 360 bet into 545. That's a 2/3 pot bet. We are getting 2.5 to 1 pot odds -- meaning we need 28% equity.

    If we give Villain a tight range (no bluffs) of the following combos that would bet 360 on river: JJ (1), 99 (3), AJ (4), A9 (2, discounted 66% from possible 6 combos), we see that our equity is 40%.

    Even in the worst case scenario where Villain is only betting 360 on river with a super-tight range of JJ, 99, AJ, we have 25% equity.

    Basically, we have to call here if we think that Villain has even 1 combo of overplayed A9 or busted straight draws.

    Cliffs: I call here all day long.
  • BigOwl Posts: 80Member
    Thanks guys. I folded here using the "guys don't bet that much on the river without 1st or second nuts" theorem and didn't take the pot odds I was getting into account enough. Sometimes I'm guilty of not thinking through the hand enough. I looked at his range, the fact that the board paired, so now he knows his J9 is probably no good, and I didn't think he would value bet A9, so he he checks back anything but sets. If I went further and looked at my equity I would have called.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,085Subscriber
    Big Owl

    See your avg player would think any ace is the nuts.. especially with the paired board they say to themselves I am chopping.. I cant tell you how many times I let someone value own themsleves and they berate me after for "not raising" ah duh..why would I let you know I have a better hand you dufus.. lol..

    ww
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