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Calling odds and implied odds

Tom H Posts: 45Subscriber
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
I'm attempting to get the nuances down of combining these concepts.
2/5 NL local casino.
Villain is one of the more looser players and is aggressive with hands, but easy to put him on ranges, and he shuts down when front door flush cards hit.
Effective stacks $600
I limp with 55 and there are three limpers after. Gets to villain who raises to $35. This bet from him is AA-JJ, and AK almost always. I call and the others fold.
Flop($85) 6heart 4club 2heart
He bets $55 and I call with 6 hidden outs
Turn($195) 6spade
He bets $100
My question here is (1) I'm getting 4:1 on my money right? ($100 to win $400) If I have 6 outs that roughly 12%. So technically I'm not quite getting correct odds. Looking at it closer is how should I factor in implied odds in that he'll put in a big bet and probably not ever fold if a non-heart 5 or 3 comes on the river? And lastly, I think I could successfully rep a flush when a non-paint heart comes. How do I factor in bluffing range into this decision? Should I increase my calling odds with 6 what I think are clean heart "outs"?

Comments

  • Steve Posts: 149Subscriber
    Edit: Working on this post.
  • Derek Posts: 44Subscriber
    If he is one of the more lose players why would you be putting him on such a tight range when he has position on everyone? If he is lose then I would think his pf range would also contain lots of broadway hands and more pairs.

    Maybe with the turn bet you can narrow the range.

    If he has a range of AA-JJ and AK then I don't think you have the odds to call that shallow. If you were over 200 BBs and he is likely to stack off then maybe.
  • Tom H Posts: 45Subscriber
    Sorry. A more specific description would be loose when calling but fairly polarized with raise sizing.
  • Arenzano Posts: 1,399Subscriber
    I think your math is off given the action you described . You are trying to set mine a loose player with a wide range . I think pre this a fold. I don't believe you are the right price.
  • Tom H Posts: 45Subscriber
    I feel that given history with any player where you can peg their PF raising range as big pairs then if their stack is greater than 10x the call then the call is correct.
    My main question concerns calling the $100 on the turn adding in implied odds and bluff odds when flush card hits.
  • Arenzano Posts: 1,399Subscriber
    I think the short answer is no; you aren't getting the right odds.
  • JCW Posts: 591Subscriber
    Beyond the Math, here is your problem.

    If you are putting him on a Big Pair. Does he Hero fold it?

    River is a 9heart does he fold to your bet? That is the question you have to ask yourself here.

    Also do you bluff a Kheart? If not then you are not bluffing the Aheart - Qheart are you? So less Hearts to bluff.

    One of my first post was about a hand where I saw a guy's hand and he had AA and I thought about bluffing a flush. I wasted $40 on the hand. But the more I thought about it is this, do you really expect to me +EV in the long run trying to bluff people off AA?
  • WackabrewWackabrew Posts: 400Subscriber
    Tom H said

    I'm attempting to get the nuances down of combining these concepts.
    2/5 NL local casino.
    Villain is one of the more looser players and is aggressive with hands, but easy to put him on ranges, and he shuts down when front door flush cards hit.
    Effective stacks $600
    I limp with 55 and there are three limpers after. Gets to villain who raises to $35. This bet from him is AA-JJ, and AK almost always. I call and the others fold.
    Flop($85) 6heart 4club 2heart
    He bets $55 and I call with 6 hidden outs
    Turn($195) 6spade
    He bets $100
    My question here is (1) I'm getting 4:1 on my money right? ($100 to win $400) If I have 6 outs that roughly 12%. So technically I'm not quite getting correct odds. Looking at it closer is how should I factor in implied odds in that he'll put in a big bet and probably not ever fold if a non-heart 5 or 3 comes on the river? And lastly, I think I could successfully rep a flush when a non-paint heart comes. How do I factor in bluffing range into this decision? Should I increase my calling odds with 6 what I think are clean heart "outs"?
    You are getting 3:1 (pot is $195 and he has bet $100, so total in pot is $300 and you have to call $100. That said, if you can credibly rep all hearts, you have 15 outs on the river (do we have the 5heart?). You are getting the correct odds to call IF (as JCW says above), he folds out his big pairs. If you have a really solid read that he will do this, then go for it. Only issue I see is that your set/straight outs put 1-liners out there, and people tend to get a little crazy when there is an obvious hand on the board (even when it doesn't make any sense that we would have it)
  • Tom H Posts: 45Subscriber
    I have plenty of history with this guy and he never bets into a river made flush. I saw it four times that session previous to this hand. In fact earlier I hit a flush vs him on the river where he made a straight on the turn. He checks and I call time to look like I'm concerned about the flush. I finally bet $110 into a $240 pot an he insta-folds. I firmly believe that if the river was any heart lower than a queen that I could have successfully bluffed the river. Alas, my game is not yet in the "Conscious competence" range and I failed to factor bluff cards into my decision.
  • LucasE Posts: 167Member
    Tom H said

    I have plenty of history with this guy and he never bets into a river made flush. I saw it four times that session previous to this hand. In fact earlier I hit a flush vs him on the river where he made a straight on the turn. He checks and I call time to look like I'm concerned about the flush. I finally bet $110 into a $240 pot an he insta-folds. I firmly believe that if the river was any heart lower than a queen that I could have successfully bluffed the river. Alas, my game is not yet in the "Conscious competence" range and I failed to factor bluff cards into my decision.
    How do you know he had a straight when he insta-mucked? Did he show you? If so, why do you think he showed? My guess would be so he can have the 'what a good fold' feeling. Which is great info for us; if he can make a straight and still fold, he may be capable of folding other strong hands when obvious draws come in. This will help in hands like this, where we are drawing to a straight but can rep other draws. We can also rep aces on the river if opponents are able to think we had a nut flush draw and now have a higher pair - don't do this too often, though. In my experience people are incredulous that you had a flush draw and hit a pair of aces; I've gotten a lot of spite calls saying 'show me the suckout' type statements when I'm bluffing that ace.

    Also - probably no need for the hollywood 'I'm calling clock and thinking hard' stuff ;) .
  • Tom H Posts: 45Subscriber
    LucasE said
    Tom H said

    Also - probably no need for the hollywood 'I'm calling clock and thinking hard' stuff ;) .
    Indeed. An odd thing at my card room is that if you don't act right away dealers will feel the need to prompt you, so when you want a minute to think on a decision one just says, "time" to let everyone know you are acting shortly.
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