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QJs in MP, top pair, wet board, facing donk bet

milbanks Posts: 4Member
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
1/2nl

EP limps, I raise to $10 with QsJs in MP. BTN and SB call. Limper folds.

Flop: Qd9d4c (Pot: $30)

SB, fishy old man, donks for $10. I have seen him do similar with an OESD before.

Hero raises to $35. BTN, mid 30's white guy, has been pretty quiet the few hours I've been here, so I am just expecting him to fold.

BTN flats, SB folds.

Turn: Qd9d4c9c (Pot: $108)

Hero checks, villain checks.

River: Qd9d4c9c7h (Pot: $108)

Hero bets $35

I honestly don't feel comfortable with a single street of this hand. I'm not saying I played every street wrong, I may have some spots right and some wrong, but I really have no clue. Results are lolwtf, but even with results aside I was kinda lost the whole hand. Critique on all streets is very welcomed.

Comments

  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,086Subscriber
    Millbanks

    Welcome to the forum. So your instincts were correct but you just need to follow through a bit more..

    1. When someone donk bets tiny into a pot they are most likely on some kind of draw.. you even say you have seen this guy do this before.. So what you need to do is raise.. You did.. but you didnt make the raise big enough in my opinion.. charging him only 25 more into a now 45 pot is giving him pretty juicy odds..

    2. when someone overcalls a bet and a raise on a board that has a draw on it.. they are most likely on the nuttier draw.. ie a flush draw in this situation. and this is weighted towards either a combo draw or the nut flush draw.. that is my experience..

    so you have two folks who are on draws.. one most likely on an oesd and the other on a flush draw.. so when the turn pairs the 9 that is one of the best cards in the deck for you. alot of players wont draw to straights on paired boards and many players wont draw to flushes on paired boards. you need to bet again here.. and I would bet something like 75-80 bucks.. fold to a ship.. but I dont know what the effective stacks are so I cant tell you if this bet would pot commit you.

    now you make a rather small I mean just tiny value bet on the river? eek.. I am not sure what is going to call you considering everyone checked the turn.. and you might induce a bluff raise from a spazzier player..

    ww
  • milbanks Posts: 4Member
    Thanks for the reply, sorry about leaving out stacks.

    SB has probably $120 in front of him. BTN has $200. I cover.

    One question: Say I did follow up on the turn and got called by BTN, what is my play on the river?
  • shmed Posts: 321Subscriber
    I agree with Wendy.

    If you did follow up on the turn, and just called, I would take him off of a 9 (as trips should shove on the turn), and put him mostly on a Qx type hand or a busted draw (rarely a slowplayed monster e.g. 44). Obv draws would fold to a river bet, but would a better Q fold? You don't beat most reasonable Qs he would play (only QT) so I don't see this as a value bet. My guess is at $1/2 the answer is no, so I would lean toward checking. Most of the time a Q will check behind anyway.

    If you think he would bet a missed draw (which is a big part of his range), rather than give up, on the river, then you can check/call. If he never bluffs, I would check/fold.
  • The Clubber Posts: 110Member
    Wrote my response below then realized I can sum it up in 3 words - Wendy is right.

    I like the raise on the flop as you most likely have the best hand and you want to get value from the draws. When the button calls, I would expect his range to be a strong draw like NFD or combo straight and flush draw like KJdd or KTdd or a queen with a better kicker. I don't think he would raise with the draws hands since it's unlikely both of you will fold and he doesn't want to get reraised off a strong draw . He might also flat with a set here (99 or 44) to encourage the SB to build a pot.

    On the turn, the 9 makes a set for him much less likely. I doubt he call the flop with a bet and a raise with any hand containing a 9 other than 99, especially since the 9 is a diamond, which rules out 9x of diamonds. So if we think his hand is either a draw or a better queen we should bet now. The pressure might get him off of a hand like KQ or even AQ since we could have an overpair or boat now, and it could get value from the NFD hands If we check now and bet the river, none of the draws will call us and most of the better queens will. In short, bet the turn since you can get value from worse hands that can't pay you on the river.

    If he calls the turn bet, most rivers I will c/f. I'm definitely folding any diamond, king, or 8.
    If the river is a queen or 9, I probably check / call. I think it's unlikely he's going to bluff but it seems slightly more likely than he would call a value bet.
    If the river is an ace I probably check fold. He could easily have the nut flush draw that rivers top pair or AQ.
    If the river is a jack, I bet and hope I get looked up by AQ or KQ.
  • milbanks Posts: 4Member
    Ok so first I want to thank everyone for their input. I pretty much agreed and understood everything everyone was saying, and had put this hand behind me, until today when someone on 2p2 commented on a personal challenge thread I have there where I posted this hand. The poster is well respected (by me and many others), but his analysis of the hand on the turn and after is quite different from the consensus of this thread.

    I'm wondering what everyone here thinks, because I find myself agreeing with Wendy and others in this thread, but this person's analysis is very different:

    "checking turn is fine. Sometimes in poker you will run up against competing principles. On one hand you have an opponent whose range includes draws. On the other hand his range also includes better queens and a few rare trips, full houses, and overpairs. But better queens are going to make up a significant part of V's range.

    So, its okay to employ "Small hand small pot big hand big pot." and check the turn. Also, checking turn does keep JJ/TT or even baby pockets in his range.

    if you bet turn then you are looking at a PSB on river which would be sick given that your hand is essentially a bluff catcher.

    Your river bet of $35 is not a bad blocking bet to freeze out better hands from blasting you on river. However, it fails to get any value from busted flush draws. This hand is a great example of how position impacts our ability to play a hand. Because we are out of position we are forced into awkward decisions and bets. If we were in position there is a good chance action checks to us and we can just let it check through and get to showdown. But because we are OOP we are pressured into betting river and our bet is more of a blocking bet than a value bet meaning when we are called we are beat. But if we check river and V blasts the pot then we have to fold. Our only hope is we check river and V puts forth a half hearted bluff that we can call. Basically, this is just not a good hand for us when you look at it in its entirety. "
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,086Subscriber
    I wonder if the 2+2 guy plays live poker. Live poker gives you an opportunity to get additional information that online poker does not. We see alot with how the villains bet or call and what their actions are.. Yes there is a chance that one of the villains has a Q .. that is why chip stacks are important. If any bet I make on the turn pot commits me then I am more inclined to check ..that is the problem with being out of position.

    but you still need to raise more on the flop to the donk bet .. and based on your read at the table I am more inclined to think that villains ranges are both draws.. Since this is a game of imperfect information you have to go with your best guess. and that is my best guess. If I feel that both are on draws and one of the best cards comes on the turn then you are at an inflection point. If you bet you might have to call off .. if all you have is 300 in front you are the one that has to make the decision if that is the play you wish to make..

    ww
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