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hero call river 2nd pair?

maphacks Posts: 2,009Subscriber
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
hey guys,

nl500: hero should have a pretty tight image.

bad player limps in MP, hero iso raises to 20 in the CO with Qc5c, solid TAG calls on the BU, 2 players call.

pot 82, flop: Ax7c2c, 2 checks, hero bets 55 into, BU calls, 2 folds.

turn: Qs. hero bets 155, villain quickly calls

river Jh. hero checks, villain moves allin for 750, hero???

thoughts: I intended to tripple barrell that hand to get him off basically any Ace. The Jack tough seemd to be one of the worst cards for me since based on his timing on the turn I put him on AJ a lot. Would anyone still bet the river? I think he would AT LEAST tank a little longer and think about raising on the turn with AQ.
As played, his shove looks really weird. I tanked a long time because I felt that he maybe would regard me as moneyscared and tried to make me fold AK. Also I would be surprised if he pretty much snapcalls the flop and turn with a set or turned two pair. AND if he thinks I am kind of a anxious player and wants value why would he bet double pot and make me fold what looks obviously like AK or AT.
Villain seemed to be quite solid and run really good that night but he also missed a couple of valuebets against fish. Tough he seemed to be very well aware of deepstacked play

Comments

  • WackabrewWackabrew Posts: 400Subscriber
    The bluffy overbet shove when the draw bricks out is a great move to make when you have a near nutty hand because you will get looked up lighter. If this villian is competant, then I would be wary.

    The other problem is that he could be bluffing with the best hand here. Acxc may play it this way to add max fold equity on the river, and the problem is that we don't beat any Ax hands. I have made calls like this before when, based on the look of the guys face, it's clear that he didn't want me to call and then he'll flip up A4 or some other shit hand that beats my shittier hand.

    This is a fold for me
  • LucasE Posts: 167Member
    Weird spot. He's shoving 750 into ~500 after calling you down multiple streets after the obvious draw misses. I don't expect many people to do this with AXcc because they're going to check back a ton of the time. If you have seen him miss value bets, then I don't think he's making a thin value bet with Ax here either. He might be bluffing with missed clubs but the sizing is weird. I don't see many overbet shoves in my game (almost none, actually, the dynamic doesn't exist in my casino) but I feel like this is some slowplayed monster that is going nuts. Maybe an AX hand that made two pair or a slowplayed set that is now just trying to shovel money into the pot. Without some significant read or dynamic with the villain, I think this is an interesting spot to 'think about' but a trivial fold in the heat of the moment.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,086Subscriber
    maphacks said



    thoughts: I intended to tripple barrell that hand to get him off basically any Ace.
    I wouldnt try to do this .... I would think virtually 99% of the players we are targeting would not be able to fold tp.. Now if you have seen this guy fold an ace before then maybe just maybe it would work. but its high variance..

    I agree with everyone else.. the overbet is very polarized and if you havent seen this guy check back an ace on the river then I think you just have to fold.. On that flop I would think AclubXclub KclubXclub

    some players would know to bet the river when they backed into a monster and in this case that would be KclubTclub but many would just shove because they see they have the nuts..

    FOLD

    ww
  • maphacks Posts: 2,009Subscriber
    to be honest I think that most good regs will fold at least small Axs. I personally would also fold AT some portion of the time against a tight looking player who cbets against 3 ppl. As pfa I will have Ax more often than fds and some flushdraws no also have TP beat on the river.
  • LucasE Posts: 167Member
    maphacks said

    to be honest I think that most good regs will fold at least small Axs. I personally would also fold AT some portion of the time against a tight looking player who cbets against 3 ppl. As pfa I will have Ax more often than fds and some flushdraws no also have TP beat on the river.
    Good regs can fold top pair hands. But most players aren't good regs. Also, good regs may be good enough to realize that you're likely to be bluffing missed flush draws and this is a great spot to snap off a missed flush draw bluff. In theory you're right, this line should get people to fold most Ax hands. In practice, I think you'll be disappointed more often than not (that's been my experience, at least).
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