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3/5 shallow--Bet top pair on the flop?

CarpeZiem Posts: 19Subscriber
edited November 2016 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Playing a 3/5 game on a Sunday night. Been at the table for maybe 20 minutes, so no real reads on the players. I am dealt K:s: Q:c: in BB, 300 effective, everyone covers me. UTG limps, UTG-2 raises to 25 calls from the c/o and button. The s/b folds, and I have K:s: Q:c: in BB and call, the UTG limper also calls. $100 in pot. Five to a flop of Kc 9:d: 8:d: . Should I lead out?
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Comments

  • CarpeZiem Posts: 19Subscriber
    Playing a 3/5 game on a Sunday night. Been at the table for maybe 20 minutes, so no real reads on the players. I am dealt K Q in BB, 300 effective, everyone covers me. UTG limps, UTG-2 raises to 25 calls from the c/o and button. The s/b folds, and I have K Q in BB and call, the UTG limper also calls. $100 in pot. Five to a flop of K 9 8 . Should I lead out?
  • DSPoticDSPotic Posts: 28Subscriber
    edited November 2016
    The pot is $100 and you have $275 behind. If you bet $60 and get raised, and then it folds back to you, you will be getting 435:215, which means you will need 33% equity to call. If you think you get raised by a range of better hands (sets, two pair, AK) and good draws only, then you will have 29% equity and could fold. If the raiser can have some junk too, then you may have a breakeven decision. You only need everyone to fold 3 out of 8 times for that bet to be immediately profitable.
    Much of the time you will have one or more calls behind, since it is so easy to catch a piece of this flop. Then the pot will be $220-$340, and you will have under a pot-sized bet to shove the turn. Shoving the turn on any non-diamond, non-ace card (33 out of 47 turns) should be highly profitable, even though you will occasionally lose to a hand that makes a straight or two-pair on the turn.
    The argument for checking is that you can safely fold in most 3/5 games if there is a bet and a raise, and if it checks around, you can make a profitable bet on a safe turn.
    I would guess that the EV of the two options is pretty close, and therefore you should have a mixed strategy with KQo--for example, check KQ with no diamond, bet your KQ combos with a diamond in them.
    If the game is especially wild, and you think you could get raised by hands like gut-shots with no diamond or A8 or A7, then you can profitably bet/get it in on the flop.
  • pokertime Posts: 2,194Subscriber
    I think OoP I just check and see what happens. You get called by a draw but then get forced to GII vs better when you lead and get raised.
  • workinghard Posts: 1,573Subscriber
    This hand illustrates the issue with the preflop play. You flop top pair good kicker, which is the best you would typically expect, but it's a multi way pot OOP starting only 60BB deep so you're kinda stuck with what to do. Unless you have very predictable opponents, I'd consider either 3 betting or folding pre. Probably 3 bet to around $150 so that even if the PFR calls, the CO and btn may not overcall. I feel you're better off heads up vs one who will often have underpairs and occasionally better hands that yours than against 4 other opponents.

    As played, I'm betting out since I don't want to get checked thru and there are not a lot of second best hands that will catch up. The PFR isn't going to bet into this field as a bluff. Let's say you check and PFR bets out $80 and the CO calls and folds to you, what are you going to do? Folding is too weak so CR all in? why not instead bet out $90 then all in on the turn. You'll still get the money in with the risk of a giving a free card.
    by 1PBJTIME
  • CarpeZiem Posts: 19Subscriber
    Helpful comments from everyone. I am learning a lot-- thanks! As played, I bet 70 and the UTG called. The original PFR now shoved. SB and BB folded. It is 205 to call. The pot is now 515 and it is 205 to call with the UTG still around. What now??
  • pokertime Posts: 2,194Subscriber
    Idk. You can probably fold and kick yourself for betting in the first place. Bet folding means you were turning your hand into a bluff or betting for info which are both probably bad here. UTG +2 is more likely to have a good hand he's protecting than a draw here.
  • CarpeZiem Posts: 19Subscriber
    I ended up folding and the UTG called. The original PFR had K 10 and the board bricked out and the UTG guy folded and she won. It is a tricky spot because she can have a variety of draws and made hands here. The three bet comment makes some sense here, and DSpotic's analysis was excellent. Thanks again for the comments.
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