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I butchered this hand....can I save it with some out of the box river bet sizing?

BananaStandBananaStand Posts: 1,455Troll
edited December 2016 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Villain is mid-20's, wearing a hoodie with a logo from a poker room that is now closed. Carbon dating puts the hoodie circa 2009. He's wearing headphones so he can listen to the audio from his tablet, which is streaming a Doug Polk video.

Earlier in the evening, I 3-bet him with A4dd from the blinds and he called. I led out on a 345 flop, he called, and all the money went in after the turn was a 2. He had AK, we chopped. A little while after that hand I left the table for a bit, and then stopped by teh mens room before returning. Inside, I encountered the villain, talking to one of his friends. All I heard was "and I had AK...". The conversation abruptly stopped when he saw me. But his friend was unaware and kept talking..."How aggressive is he?". V's response "Don't know, haven't played with him much". I was mid-stream so I couldn't follow them out and listen to the rest of the conversation.

On to the hand.

1/2 NL, about 300 deep. I raise JJ to $15, a somewhat loose player calls BTN, and V calls from the blinds.

Flop $45 - J 9 5 r Checks through. I'll take the criticism for not betting flop. I'm about 70% sure it was a mistake. At the time, I just felt like I had the board smothered, and I didn't totally write off the possibility of BTN taking a stab.

Turn 5, brings a heart draw. I have the Jh

V leads out for $15. I raise to $60, BTN folds, V calls.

River (165) offsuit T. V checks...

If I were on auto-pilot, I might bet 125 here. But what calls?

Any merit to a weak bet, trying to induce a bluff? Like $60 again?

Any merit to over-bet shoving to try and get a "wtf" call from a hand like QT

Any merit to flatting the turn, expecting him to lead river and then raising big on the end?
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Comments

  • TastesLikeBurning Posts: 429SubscriberProfessional
    Your line looks really strong (we are raising with players yet to act) so when he calls the turn raise, his range should be a lot of draws with the faintest of possibilities that he's going to get stubborn with the case J. Of course that depends on how wide he's closing the action pre. If he's defending all the AT-JT combos, I'd bet 1/2 pot. If he's only got a few suited Tx then I think we could bet smaller to hopefully induce a bluff raise from a missed draw.
  • chilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    First of all , I think I speak for the entire CLP community when I say I'd love to hear more stories about you in the restroom.

    Secondly, please bet the flop. When villain pegs you as high on the aggression scale, he's expecting a cbet here. He very well will call with any draw including gutters and could easily play back at your cbet with a draw or even A high air as this flop doesn't connect very well with the pfr's range.

    As played , it's hard for him to call much here as the only hands that got there were combo draws like KQhh, 78hh, which we guess he might have played a little faster.

    I probably toss in 1 black chip ($100) to make it easy for him to call with QT or 9x.
  • JKH Posts: 835Subscriber
    Yeh I like a bet around $150 targeting trip 5"s. It's pretty lofty to think the busted draws are gonna call. The other jack might call and I think a lot of the mines fold the turn / most every river. Players just don't check raise bluff almost ever so I would not underbet. I think The busted draws pretty much never call so targeting trip 5"s and the other jack. If he did not 4bet Ak he could also have qq here.
  • snapper35 Posts: 243Subscriber
    edited November 2016
    The flop check isnt as bad since its top set b/c you block high cards. It protects your check backs on later hands too.
    Checking bottom set would be worse b/c villains could have a J.

    As played I would use this river to set up bet for later, not so much the max value.

    Overbet pot with 2 blacks chips to look polarized to see if he will be a hero. Overbet with nutz later.

    Ninja bet 1/5 pot, induce missed draws or to make crying call with 10x.
    If he has a green $25 chip I would bet that.
    Later when you miss a draw you can bet 25 and thinks you got boat again-lol


    by 1Durk
  • beauregard Posts: 1,592Subscriber
    ahhh.... not playing your A game?

    I like a shove here.
    your turn raise looks bluffy like you have an overpair or AK or you're spazzing with some underpair.
    for the times you don't get called - me thinks you'll more than make up for it when you do
    ...making a shove more +EV long-term.
  • iamallin Posts: 1,173SubscriberProfessional
    He bet 1/3rd pot into so many people. I don't think he has that many 5x that do this.

    He's got a draw or has a full house on the turn.

    I would bet 25.
  • BananaStandBananaStand Posts: 1,455Troll
    edited November 2016
    Snapper split his vote, so after six comments in this thread so far, survey says.....

    Bet $25 - 1.5
    Bet $80 - 1
    Bet $100 - 1
    Bet $150 - 1
    Overbet - 1.5

    Thankfully there is a consensus on the need for more BananStand bathroom anecdotes. Other than that though, I think we're throwing darts here. So here are the results

    Spoiler:
    Hero bet $125. Villain tanked for a long time. After a while he asked how much I have behind. I asked "Why? Are you thinking about a bluff?" He tanked for a while longer, finally flashed a J and folded muttering something about not having played with me enough

  • chilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    edited November 2016
    Why did you goad him into folding?

    Btw : if you had bet my suggestion of $100 and kept quiet , it sounds like you very well may have gotten a call.
  • BananaStandBananaStand Posts: 1,455Troll
    chilidog said:
    Why did you goad him into folding?
    You think I did? I'm not sure my comments influenced anything. I think it was the bet size that made him fold more than anything. With benefit of hindsight, I feel like $80 was the right number.

    But honestly, I'm feeling more and more like river bet sizing is such a unique and personal decision for each villain. I'm not sure how much efffort I'm gonna be putting into problems like this. I'll probably just try to avoid this shit show altogether by betting the flop next time.

  • TastesLikeBurning Posts: 429SubscriberProfessional
    BananaStand said:
    chilidog said:
    Why did you goad him into folding?
    You think I did? I'm not sure my comments influenced anything. I think it was the bet size that made him fold more than anything. With benefit of hindsight, I feel like $80 was the right number.

    But honestly, I'm feeling more and more like river bet sizing is such a unique and personal decision for each villain. I'm not sure how much efffort I'm gonna be putting into problems like this. I'll probably just try to avoid this shit show altogether by betting the flop next time.

    I think you thinking aloud marks you as someone who takes the game seriously and that's not good IMO.

    I'm not sure it affected the opponent's decision but I can't see how any good can come out of the sequence of events on the river.

    Oh, and bet the flop. :lol:
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    edited November 2016
    i might be bad at math but betting the river is the most important street to know how much and how often.

    this is absolutely worth the effort. saying its not is just laziness

    and verbal tells are very important and you absolutely affecting him calling you. maybe its only ten percent but if he was close that might have just put him over the edge to fold.

    so I ask you @banana. do you want to win more or do you want to be right?

    I am wrong alot as was well demonstrated last week. but I am open to learning and keep old ideas I thought I had mastered renewed. you seem very close minded and want to be right all the time.

    oh and about 99% of folks losing. I am a winner. not as much as I would like but I have kept copious records and have won last three years. each year improving on the previous

    my objective is to keep getting better learn and the money will flow. I could care less about always be right. (even though I am more often than not). the point is if you always think you are right there is no room to learn and improve
  • BananaStandBananaStand Posts: 1,455Troll
    edited November 2016
    @TheHammah, I think I liked it better when you just ignored all of my posts.

    It seems that you are still ignoring my posts, but for some reason, decided to be offensive anyway. Its apparent from your diatribe that you haven't even read a word I've written in this thread. Not sure why you choose to be combative when you're so hopelessly uninformed. I believe the word for people like you, is "troll"

    First of all....the fact that I posted this hand at all pretty much proves you wrong. I could have easily gone to bed that night and said "yeah B, you played it perfect, and you're really fucking handsome". But I didn't, I put up a wordy post where I openly and publicly shamed myself for not betting the flop. I agree that mistakes were made, and I'm committed to correcting them.

    I finished that post by suggesting THREE alternate lines I could have taken and asked for input and discussion on those. How pig-headed of me huh???

    In regards to my conclusion on river sizing.....I realize that not everyone agrees with my conclusion. Flaming me for being disagreeable is absolutely fucking insane. Six different sizing suggestions have been given in this thread. After giving open-minded consideration to ALL of them, I used my knowledge of having BEEN THERE, to conclude that one of those suggestions was preferable to the actual line that I took.

    I openly and publicly embraced a line of play that was different from my own. Why isn't that good enough for you Hammah? There were six different choices. No matter what I do, five people are going to think I'm making a mistake. If you're one of them, I don't know what to tell you. Maybe just go back to ignoring my posts.
    Thehammah said:
    i might be bad at math but betting the river is the most important street to know how much and how often.

    this is absolutely worth the effort. saying its not is just laziness
    So this, right here, is conclusive evidence that you and I have very very very different approaches to poker Wendy.

    River sizing manipulation really only comes into play when stacks are deep relative to the pot on the river, and we have a hand that's worth thin value. However, we're not in one of those 'thin value' situations. We have top full house!!!

    For me, winning live poker is about winning stacks, not pots. I religiously pay attention to SPR, frequencies, and almost always have a plan for the entire hand, as well as some contingencies, before I even VPIP. If you're doing those things, then river sizing should be "all-in" pretty much every time. If you're in a situation where you'd like to play for stacks but "all-in" would be an awkward or unreasonable bet size.....then you probably screwed up somewhere earlier in the hand. In this case, I didn't bet the god damn flop!!!!

    This game is won and lost pre-flop. Not on the river. If you disagree, then I recommend, again, that you just recognize our philosophical differences, and go back to ignoring my posts.

    Finally, with regard to the verbal tells. I listened to the criticism. Considered it. And ultimately concluded that it didn't affect the hand. Actually, after reading this...
    TastesLikeBurning said:
    I think you thinking aloud marks you as someone who takes the game seriously
    ....I think a little table talk might have been ok. Go back and read my description and hand history of the villain. He obviously takes the game seriously. If he thinks I do too, then he will recognize that I have a much more balanced range.....which should get me more calls.

    So thank you CLP community for the input on this, but I respectfully disagree. I should be able to do that without getting flamed. I've given my reasons for why, if you'd like to continue this debate, please address them specifically. The comments here definitely did help me think about it in some different terms, but ultimately I landed at my original conclusion. If that offends you......get help.

    The villain folded because he felt he didn't know me well enough to know if I can bluff at the end. After the A4 hand, I would have expected him to give me a little more credit for balance, and he didn't. He made a very conservative decision and folded. I don't think that necessarily means that anything I did on the river was bad, or wrong. Sometimes the guy just folds. If this villain and I had played a few more sessions together....I probably get this call.

    TL/DR: If all of your value bets work, your sizing is too small.
  • JKH Posts: 835Subscriber
    edited November 2016
    @bananastand @thehammah
    Banana when are you going to California next .... I think u need to play Hammah heads up for rolls ....& televise it on stones live feed or live at the bike
  • BananaStandBananaStand Posts: 1,455Troll
    JKH said:
    @bananastand @thehammah
    Banana when are you going to California next .... I think u need to play Hammah heads up for rolls ....& televise it on stones live feed or live at the bike
    Unfortunately, I"m too handsome for TV.
  • TastesLikeBurning Posts: 429SubscriberProfessional
    BananaStand said:
    TastesLikeBurning said:
    I think you thinking aloud marks you as someone who takes the game seriously
    ....I think a little table talk might have been ok. Go back and read my description and hand history of the villain. He obviously takes the game seriously. If he thinks I do too, then he will recognize that I have a much more balanced range.....which should get me more calls.

    So thank you CLP community for the input on this, but I respectfully disagree. I should be able to do that without getting flamed.
    Don't see where I ever flamed you about the table talk, but w/e perhaps you're referring to someone else. Just was offering my opinion.

    Just because he takes the game seriously doesn't mean he thinks you do. For all he knows, you could be a button-clicking mouth-breather. I say, let him keep guessing you may be an idiot rather than remove all doubt.
  • BananaStandBananaStand Posts: 1,455Troll
    edited November 2016
    TastesLikeBurning said:
    Don't see where I ever flamed you about the table talk, but w/e perhaps you're referring to someone else. Just was offering my opinion.
    You didn't. You and I are totally cool here TLB. Sorry if there was any confusion. I only meant that what you posted actually validated my thinking. I was talking about someone else with regards to teh flaming..
  • iamallin Posts: 1,173SubscriberProfessional
    We are all desperate to be relevant. - Denny Crane
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    iamallin said:
    We are all desperate to be relevant. - Denny Crane
    Denny Crane? Character played by William Shatner? good one!!!
    :wink:
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    Denny Crane 2020!! he he
    460 x 689 - 47K
  • Durk Posts: 30Subscriber
    edited November 2016
    I definitly do agree that your talk on the river may have helped induce the fold.. I know it might push me closer to the fold button in his spot. Just my opinion. Although I don't like your conclusion of betting small on that river. I like your 125 and may have even bet more. That is just my style of play though and possibly not the best in that specific situation. My reasoning is simple. If your hammering rivers it going to make your opponent's game much harder to play. Wether your nutted or have air they will be wishing they stayed at home. In my experience when people are consistently put in those spots they just don't get to play optimally wether you get the call there or not. You'll know a spot you'll be able to in the near future, and all 8 villains at the table see you hammering that river!(which also makes my opinion depend on how often your playing these specific villains at your table). GL! Thanks for the discussion.
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