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Top Section Poker Podcast No. 46: Marginal Spots

Craig Posts: 756Administrator
In this episode, David discusses a few tough spots he's played recently where he's run ambitious bluffs and made difficult hero calls.

Episode Posts at 11 AM PST.

http://www.crushlivepoker.com/podcasts/marginal-spots
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Comments

  • hobe Posts: 209Subscriber
    In hand 2- I can't imagine V folding pairs here very often as played especially if he thinks we would turn hand like AK into a bluff often.
  • DavidChan Posts: 1,208Pro
    edited December 2016
    Hmm, it depends on what Villain thinks my 3bet range looks like in this spot. If Villain thinks that I am 3betting a tight range with relatively few 3bet bluffs because he knows that I don't normally play 10/20/40 NL (and because I have VPIPed relatively little so far in session because I was card dead), what hands am I bluffing here besides AK?

    Villain probably thinks that I would be cbet bluffing AsKx. He might think that I would cbet AxKs. Assuming that he thinks that I have a tight 3bet range in this spot, he can only put me on AK without A of spades or maybe AK without A/K of spades. That could be 12 combos of AK without Ace of Spades or 8 combos of AK with no spade at all. It is also debatable whether I would bluff with all those combos.

    With that said, I think that it is reasonable that he could still hero call pocket pairs if he thinks that I am bluffing most of those combos on river...especially if he thinks that we would turn hand like AK into a bluff often. I am not sure whether he would think that we would take those combos of checked down AK combos into a bluff at a high frequency though. He might be thinking that I would be scared to bluff in this bigger game because he thinks that I normally play smaller than 10/20/40 NL.

    On the other hand, Villain might also be thinking that I am 3bet bluffing a decent number of Ax/Kx that are now bluffing river. If he is ranging me on some preflop Ax/Kx 3bet bluffs that might have checked down to river, then this could be a really bad bluff by me.

    In summary, I think that you have a lot of merit in your post. I just wanted to give you my take on what I was thinking. On balance, I think that it was a bad to decent bluff...but it being bad versus mediocre versus decent bluff really depends on how accurate my assumptions were regarding Villain's thought process with respect to my perceived range.
  • hobe Posts: 209Subscriber
    Great feedback, thanks David.
  • DavidChan Posts: 1,208Pro
    No problem. Happy to review my thought process with you.
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