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2/5 Top boat on river

ClockClock Posts: 1,081Subscriber
Borgata 2/5 (500 cap) Sat night.

HERO mid 30s looks like a tourist

Villain is 40s white dude, looks pretty intelligent and my read is that he's thinking player.
He has a massive stack 1.5K+ (remember this is 500 cap gm!)
I've been at the table for maybe 1hr and he has been UBER active.
I've payed VERY close attention to his SD and have concluded that he's raising almost ANY suited or connecting cards from LP, as well as more premium holdings from ALL positions, but his sizing is usually a bit stronger with good hands.
It looks like he's trying to cultivate a maniac image while trying to get paid when he actually has it.

Eff ~600

V raises to 20 from LP, HERO calls on BU with K9ss (I think I'm ahead of his range here and actually dominate quite a few of his hands) SB calls...
Flop (60): K8T - V checks, HERO bets 40, SB folds, V calls
Turn (140): 8 - x x
I check behind because I don't think think I can get 3 streets from weak holding from this guy (he's not a donk)
I think he can also bluff missed draws on river and I disguise my hand.

River (140): 8 - he leads for 175 ...HERO?
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Comments

  • PBJTIME Posts: 333Subscriber
    edited December 2016
    If he is "not a donk", I don't think you get called by worse on the river even with a min raise. Obviously he will never fold better either. Raise/fold is not an option given these stack sizes. Probably just a call on the river.

    I prefer betting on the turn rather than checking. You don't think you can get three streets but there are a lot of straight draws given the range you've assigned him.
  • ClockClock Posts: 1,081Subscriber
    He looked like thinking player, but he still made mistakes. He called almost all 3bets with hands that he had no business calling and obv opened way too much/too lose - but I can see him being able to get away with this on that table/that game (most are clueless nits post flop)


    Spoiler:

    HERO decided that the way hand played out V can have anything including air or a T, so HERO raised to 350.

    Before I raised, I already decided that given stack depth if he shoves - I cannot fold - thoughts on that?

    Well V shoved - HERO called and V showed Q8s :frown:

  • Acidhauss Posts: 291Subscriber
    edited December 2016
    Pre

    Flatting is ok. What I prefer to do, however, is to 3bet my entire continuing range against guys like this. Now, hear me out ;)

    1. Theres no way this guy can defend anywhere near enough vs your IP 3bets if hes opening 87o, A8o, Q3s and the like in the HJ. If you dont believe me plug in your guess of his range and see what an "optimal" 30% looks like.

    2. For me personally, it helps reinforce the fact that the more aggressive line is generally the better line. I can find mysef slipping into a bad habit of taking pssive lines like flatting AK in perfectly fine squeeze spots out of laziness; I think making this a habit will wake you up, make you play better and pay attention to the table.

    Flop

    I like your bet size. I thinkyou could even go 45 I think hes going to check-call here at a pretty high frequency with Tx, 8x AQ, QQ JJ etc etc but Im nit picking.

    Turn

    Against this guy Im never checking behind. When he xc the flop his range is so Tx, pp, AQ/AJ heavy that youre going to be ahead 95% of the time here.

    He has all sorts like T9o, JTo, numerous offsuit Tx junk that Im 100% betting the turn. We also have lods of straigjt draws like QJ AQ that well be betting too.

    Remember we dont mind a fold as he still has equity against us! If Tx folds its 12-15% equity than we really dont mind either. Obviously wed prefer he continues to "draw" incorrectly but its better than letting him realisenhis equity for free.

    River

    Ive seen the spoiler, but I think you just have to fold given your read.

    When people check call the flop its just sooo hard for them to have ccomplete air. And with your description of him opening 87o and the like he has a ton of 8x here (albeit only 4 combos of 87, 98 etc etc each.

    I cba to do the maths but I think youre just not getting the odds on a call even if takes this line with K3s type hands.
  • ClockClock Posts: 1,081Subscriber
    I'm sorry, but I think folding river to a lead is pretty sick :eek: the way hand has played out.
    Like I said - he does have bluffs in his range and plenty of str8 draws missed, not to mention - Why can't he have a T or some small-med PP or obviously a K?


    Also, I really don't agree with

    Tx folds its 12-15% equity than we really dont mind either
    Do we only want him to continue when he drawing to 2 outs or dead?
    Plus again, I believe this guy may bluff river, so why not let him...
  • chilidog Posts: 2,422Subscriber
    Seems like an easy call on the river. Not sure what we are accomplishing by raising river. Do we really think he's going to pay off with JJ or Tx ? If we checked the turn to let him bluff his misses / value bet worse hands , why are we raising against that range -- it seems inconsistent. He either chops with us or has us beat if he continues vs a river raise.

    Btw : I would not call K9 top boat on KT888. It is a full house yes, but "top boat" implies there is only 1 hand that beats us (quads). Sometimes top boat could be the stone cold nuts too (K9 on KK894).

    In this hand there are a lot of hands that have us beat : TT, KK, 8x (of which he has many combos since he's raising a lot of suited trash and connectors).
  • Acidhauss Posts: 291Subscriber
    edited December 2016
    Hey!

    Folding River

    To elaborate more, I think its a fold because:

    1. He overbet the pot where fish will tend to see you as inelastic.
    2. I think hands like AQ and AJ will think they have showdown value a lot and decide to check.
    3. He has a bunch of 8x here, because of the range you assigned (offsuit connectors and all). A8,Q8-J8,98-87=20 8x combos. Thats a sizable amount.
    4. I just don't see a guy like this, with a raise this wide, check-calling J9 or QJ on the flop and overbetting river. This is just me, but I don't buy it.
    5. I just don't see him betting 1.2-1.3x pot with a T. Again, maybe thats just me. I don't see it in my own games, maybe its different in yours.
    6. When people check-call the flop they're super imbalanced towards value; let alone when they check-call flop as the PFR and lead river after turn goes check-check. I don't think the majority of people realise the significance of this statement.
    7. Best case you're chopping a bunch, although as you say he might have some bluffs in his range (I disagree but thats me.) This is an exercise to do in an equity calculator; you're risking £175 to win 140/2 = £70. Load up equilab and give it a go.

    RE: Tx "folds its 12-15% equity than we really dont mind either". Do we only want him to continue when he drawing to 2 outs or dead?

    I actually didn't notice you're chopping with Kx and two-pair with Tx is actually drawing dead against you (sorry, tired). Despite this I still think its an important point to go over.

    On the turn, the board reads KT8r 8o. He checks to us after he check-calls our flop probe. Whats his range?

    I think its mainly AQ, AJ, K9, K8s-K2s, QQ-JJ, 99, AT,QT,JT,T9,T7s,T6s, A8,Q8,J8s, 98, 87. You can put some draws in there as well if you want, but thats my estimate. Lets plug all that into flopzilla and look at our equity, but this time lets remove the 8x combos and the Kx combos with which we chop:

    image

    I was a bit out, he has around 10% equity against us.

    Now, lets evaluate our options.

    1. We can check, as you did in-game. You are going to lose this pot 10% of the time by letting him actualise his equity for free.
    2. We can bet, as I would have done. With those holdings, he will mix-in a combination of calls or folds. If he calls, we continue to extract value from his calling "error." If he folds we win this pot 100% of the time i.e. we're not allowing him to realise his equity. Either way this is a win win situation for us. We will lose money when he has 8x and he check-raises us, but I think betting is far superior for these reasons. I don't think he's going to bluff the river enough of the time for checking back here to be superior to betting (which I've explained above.)

    Matthew Janda has done some videos on CardRunners that has really helped me understand this. As a far too brief overview, you should remember the reasons for betting:

    1. To make the pot bigger in case we win.
    2. To deny equity.

    These reasons are not always equal; for example if we bet 88 on 932r we're mainly hoping for folds as hands like KQ have 30% equity against us. Therefore the main reason there is to deny equity. If we bet KK on KK2, then clearly its more reason 1 as everything else is drawing dead against us. Its not always as clear cut as this, but I hope that helps.

    BTW I don't think callings a big mistake, I wouldnt get too hung up about it (not that I'm suggesting you are.) In fact I'd probably shrug it off, but I still think folding is best here.

    gl
  • ClockClock Posts: 1,081Subscriber
    chilidog said:


    Btw : I would not call K9 top boat on KT888. It is a full house yes, but "top boat" implies there is only 1 hand that beats us (quads). Sometimes top boat could be the stone cold nuts too (K9 on KK894).

    In this hand there are a lot of hands that have us beat : TT, KK, 8x (of which he has many combos since he's raising a lot of suited trash and connectors).
    That's a good point. Also AA.
    I heavily discounted premium hands from his range due to pre-flop sizing tells, but you're technically right! :tu:
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