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Bellagio 2/5 River Shove

Bellagio 2/5 500 capped game. Villain is younger guy who seems to play pretty tight and has been playing solid poker although he hasn't run very well. He has $363 to start the hand and we have him covered.

Hero opens A Q UTG for 20

Flop $47: Q 4 4 - Hero UTG Check - Vilian CO check

Turn $47: 8:s: - Hero bets 30 - call - pot is 107

River $107: off suit 3 - Hero bets 65 into 107 - Villain raises all in for 313 so pot is 172 + 65 = 237 plus the raise of 313 - 65 = 248 for a total of 485 - 248 to call 485 / 248 = 1.9556 to 1.

What do we do?
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Comments

  • A_A Posts: 30Member
    folding >> calling in this spot. It is hard for Villain to bluff here nor do I think he is doing this with KQ- for value, if he does bluff like this once in a blue moon let him have this pot.
  • pokertime Posts: 2,194Subscriber
    Can't beat much and I guess his bet is just the right amount I could fold. It's tough because he either has to have A4 or 88 otherwise we are good so it's a tight range. I don't think a call is horrible but I also don't think you are going to be right enough to bother worrying about it and you can fold and move on.
  • JimPsaros Posts: 107Subscriber
    Most times it has to be a fold, but given you've checked the flop, your hand is stronger than the V would assume. So I don't think it's impossible that he's value owning himself with a worse Q given his stack size. It's hard to know if a tight player will call a raise in ep with 4 in it, which he's repping. If you think think there is a possibility of a bit of tilt going on, and getting nearly 2/1, its close and a call wouldn't be ridiculous.
  • stayinschool Posts: 2,969Subscriber
    Hard for him to have much value here. 8 combos at the absolute most. Means we need 2.6 combos that are not AQ to make this call profitable. Personally i'm calling. Guy can be bluffing, he might have the same hand and i really just don't think we know him enough to fold.

    I talk a lot about theory on here and while it isn't always the right answer i do think it's a good way to measure your decisions. What i mean by that is that it's ok to deviate from theory if you have a read, the stronger the read we have the more we can deviate from theory. As an extreme example, if you know 100% a guy will never fold then you just never bluff him. However if you only think he won't fold much then you should still bluff him a little in case you are wrong. You were able to deviate more from theory because your read was stronger.

    The reason i mention that is because folding here would be massively deviating from theory and i don't think we have a strong enough of a read to make that deviation. This hand is so strong and V is not repping much, he needs less than 3 combos that are <AQ for this call to be profitable. I don't think we can say he doesn't have those. I'm calling.
  • MasterJC55 Posts: 31Subscriber
    The value hands he has that beat us are:
    AA, KK - 6 combos - I expect him to raise these pre-flop almost 100%
    A4 - 2 combos - I don't expect this villain to show up with A4o but he can have A4s. I expect he raises the turn when the flush draw comes in the vast majority of the time.
    88 - 3 combos - Again I expect a raise when the flush draw comes in
    33 - 3 combos - There is a chance he floats the turn with 33 some of the time and makes his set on the river. This is consistent with the action
    44 - 1 combo - Slow played quads is very consistent with this line.

    Chops:
    AQ - 6 combos - There is some chance he could raise AQ on the river to get us off the same hand but he has to assume we could also have AA, KK as we open raised in early position.

    Worse Value hands:
    I don't see any worse hands that this villain is betting for value

    Bluffs:
    Villain can have some A X flush draws that he decided not to semi-bluff and missed
    If he ever calls a raise heads up and fairly shallow with suited connectors, which I am not sure if he would, then he could have a hand like 6 7 or 5 6 which are combo draws on the turn that he chose not to semi-bluff.
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