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AQ on turn facing a raise. fold, call, or raise?

Setup:
First hand at new table I get AQ in cutoff. folded to me, I make it $20, BB calls.
I decide not to C-bet and we check down the board and i win unimproved.

Very next hand
I'm in HJ with A Q $520 effective.
I open to $20, villain on button calls and we're heads up. He's a white 30ish guy. I'm not familiar with his game.
flop $45 Q T 2
I bet $30, he calls

Turn $105 4
I bet $60, he takes a sec and raises to $190

If I call, I'll have about $280 behind and the pot will be $485

Comments

  • Jacklamb Posts: 561Subscriber
    edited January 2017
    Hmm. I'd think if he had a draw like KJ or J9 he'd have raised the flop not wait until a blank turn. It's really not a scare card at all, so for him to raise he's likely strong. All you can hope you're against is KJ or J9 that played strangely. He could have sets slowplaying, QT.
    If we decide to play it, I just call and check to him on the river and I'd have to plan on calling again putting him on a bluff.
    It's very Villain dependent and this guy is unknown. Your hand looks strong like AQ, so it's unlikely for him to want to bluff you off of top pair/overpair.
  • workinghard Posts: 1,562Subscriber
    If we decide to play it, I just call and check to him on the river and I'd have to plan on calling again putting him on a bluff.
    If I am going to call him on the river putting him on a bluff, why wouldn't I just shove turn instead? I have no reason to expect him to bluff with his missed draws on the river.
  • stayinschool Posts: 2,969Subscriber
    workinghard said:
    If we decide to play it, I just call and check to him on the river and I'd have to plan on calling again putting him on a bluff.
    If I am going to call him on the river putting him on a bluff, why wouldn't I just shove turn instead? I have no reason to expect him to bluff with his missed draws on the river.
    If you don't think he would bluff river why would you ever shove turn? Just fold to any river bet.
  • workinghard Posts: 1,562Subscriber
    stayinschool said:
    workinghard said:
    If we decide to play it, I just call and check to him on the river and I'd have to plan on calling again putting him on a bluff.
    If I am going to call him on the river putting him on a bluff, why wouldn't I just shove turn instead? I have no reason to expect him to bluff with his missed draws on the river.
    If you don't think he would bluff river why would you ever shove turn? Just fold to any river bet.
    If he is semi bluffing, which is what i think jacklamb was referring to, then shoving turm is best. If he is bluffing w air, which i think is unlikely, then calling turn and check calling river is best.
  • pokertime Posts: 2,180Subscriber
    workinghard said:
    stayinschool said:
    workinghard said:
    If we decide to play it, I just call and check to him on the river and I'd have to plan on calling again putting him on a bluff.
    If I am going to call him on the river putting him on a bluff, why wouldn't I just shove turn instead? I have no reason to expect him to bluff with his missed draws on the river.
    If you don't think he would bluff river why would you ever shove turn? Just fold to any river bet.
    If he is semi bluffing, which is what i think jacklamb was referring to, then shoving turm is best. If he is bluffing w air, which i think is unlikely, then calling turn and check calling river is best.
    Given all that a turn shove seems best. I think in general if you are up against a V who isn't bluffing rivers you value is going to be bet/raise/jamming turn to get value from worse that want to see a river.
  • Jacklamb Posts: 561Subscriber
    edited January 2017
    Shoving turn is best against an opponent who is not likely to bluff the river with his missed draws. You're right on that. You get value by denying him from realizing his equity (or calling with a draw or worse made hand).
    I would think if he's willing to go for a turn bluff raise he would follow through on the river if he missed with the stack sizes, but it's villain dependent.
    stayinschool said:
    workinghard said:
    If we decide to play it, I just call and check to him on the river and I'd have to plan on calling again putting him on a bluff.
    If I am going to call him on the river putting him on a bluff, why wouldn't I just shove turn instead? I have no reason to expect him to bluff with his missed draws on the river.
    If you don't think he would bluff river why would you ever shove turn? Just fold to any river bet.
    He has a good point.
    Villain needs to be quite aggressive for his turn raise to mostly be bluffs and live people really don't tend to meet that quota. By just calling and checking river, you can either win at showdown when he misses or fold to his river shove if he was ahead/catches up.

  • PBJTIME Posts: 337Subscriber
    As far as your setup is concerned, it's possible (probable) that this villain didn't even pay attention to the first hand. My player pool is very unattentive.

    For most of my villains, it's tough for this to be a worse value hand. It's possible though that your smaller bet sizing may have induced a semi-bluff. I'd prefer a turn bet of around 80-85 instead.

    As played, this is a tough spot and I hate these situations. I'm probably giving him credit for two pair+ and folding the turn. If I call and my hand doesn't improve, I'm likely check/folding here or as @bart says, "playing fifth street chicken."
  • Jacklamb Posts: 561Subscriber
    edited January 2017
    PBJTIME said:
    If I call and my hand doesn't improve, I'm likely check/folding here or as @bart says, "playing fifth street chicken."
    Where's BananaStand to rabble rouse after that comment?
    This would be a spot to do that because our opponents are often not as aggressive as they should be on the river when they miss.
  • squishmytomatosquishmytomato Posts: 349SubscriberProfessional
    turn check raise from an unknown on a dry board.... this is an auto fold for me until the player gives me a reason not too. most players aggro enough to drive draws will do it on the flop, not the turn.
  • workinghard Posts: 1,562Subscriber
    squishmytomato said:
    turn check raise from an unknown on a dry board.... this is an auto fold for me until the player gives me a reason not too. most players aggro enough to drive draws will do it on the flop, not the turn.
    Villain is in position. Its a raise, not check raise
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