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AJ on A34A2 board - Bet fold, check fold or check call? 2/4$

Villain is an interesting player. He seems to be playing quite snug and has a reg look but I haven't seen him before. I haven 't seen him open or 3bet once in the last 2 or so hours of play. On the other hand, I saw him stack off for over 1000$ on 7 3 2 flop with 8 4 after calling a 3bet in position of over 100$.

Effective stacks 1400$

PRE-FLOP

Two EP limpers
Hero in MP opens with A J to 30$
Villain is on Hero's left and calls
BB and limpers all call

FLOP
(150$)
A 3 4
Checks around to hero
Hero bets 80$
Villain calls
Folds around

TURN
(310$)
A

Hero bets 125$
Villain calls

RIVER
(560)
2

Hero ? All the A's are in his range and so are suited 56ss and perhaps a few 56o since he was calling my raise in the CO.






Comments

  • BartBart Posts: 6,080AdministratorLeadPro
    edited January 2017
    Even if you think he calls 30 with all Axos, you still are beat more often than you are winning on the river. You lose to A5 and A2 now, like you said, 56 and I think you are also discounting the possibility of him having 33 or 44. Seems like if he is bad, he can also have 55 too. Pretty easy check and fold to a bet if you ask me. Pray it goes check check and you beat a weaker ace.
  • the5thace Posts: 19Subscriber
    Bart said:
    Even if you think he calls 30 with all Axos, you still are beat more often than you are winning on the river. You lose to A5 and A2 now, like you said, 56 and I think you are also discounting the possibility of him having 33 or 44. Seems like if he is bad, he can also have 55 too. Pretty easy check and fold to a bet if you ask me. Pray it goes check check and you beat a weaker ace.
    Thanks for the reply.

    Unfortunately I went for the bet fold line on the river. Do you think I should have sized my TURN bet larger or keeping it small was advantageous for keeping in the A's we get value from?

  • BartBart Posts: 6,080AdministratorLeadPro
    I might go 175-200 on the turn.
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