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facing big river ck r

mex Posts: 26Subscriber
5/10 ( 3000 effective)
villain: strong loose aggressive pro, played with him a decent amount of time, he likes to overbet.

About 10 minutes before this hand came down, i stacked him in his very first hand for 300 bb, even when his mental game seems to be very strong, i expected him to be at least a little bit on tilt now.

actions folds to hero ( 7s4s) on btn, i raised to 35, villain ( sb) and bb calls ( 105)

flop: 9s5c4h. ck ck ck

turn: 3s, ck to me , bet 75, sb calls, bb folds ( 255)

river: 2s , ck to me, i bet 195 , villain ck r to 1155 ???
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Comments

  • stayinschool Posts: 2,969Subscriber
    edited February 2017
    Ignore this didn't see flush.
  • iamallin Posts: 1,173SubscriberProfessional
    We have the 2nd nut low flush.

    We beat 5s 6s.

    He bet approximately 3x to win 1x on the river.

    We need to defend with approx 25% of our range?

    We raised the button. We will have a lot of flushes by this river.

    What are betting on the river?

    6x, flushes and bluffs.

    If we fold 6x and our bluffs, how often are we folding?

    I will call it off, I think 74s is high enough in our range to call it off. Although I expect to lose quite often.



  • iamallin Posts: 1,173SubscriberProfessional
    Hold'em Hand Count ?
    dead cards: 9s 5c 4h 3s 2s
    Hand Optimized Count Base Count
    7s4s, 4s5s, 5s6s, 8s5s, 8s4s, JsTs, Js5s, QsJs, QsTs, KsQs, KsJs, KsTs, Ks5s, AsKs, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, As8s, As7s, As6s, As5s, As4s, Ks4s 23 (1.73%) 23 (1.73%)
    66, 6x5x, 6x4x, 6x9x, Ax6x 19 (1.43%) 22 (1.66%)
    Edit · Link

    We have about 23 flushes, 18 straights and I assume approximately 20 bluffs by this river. (We bet just less than pot on the river, we should have approximately 1/3rd bluffs)

    If we call with all of our flushes, we are calling with 1/3rd of our range.

    We need to defend with approximately 25% of range.

    So we can technically fold some low flushes.

    HOWEVER, one of the most common hands he will bluff with here is the As x, for a dummy end of a straightthat decided to get crazy and bluff out out our 6x.

    So, when he holds the Ace of spades, we only have 14 flushes.

    And will simply have to call with all of our flushes.

    So yes, we will need to put in the call here.




    by 1mex
  • maphacks Posts: 1,992Subscriber
    I think it's pretty obvious villain either has As blocker or the nuts.

    what bothers me a bit is the fact that he could simply call with A high straight and in my experience when ppl think they have a bit of showdown value they are way less likely to bluff (which makes sense of course but most don't realize when they have SD and when they don't..).
    in this case, A high straight is a reasonable bluff catcher.

    I would fold mainly for that reason. if A didn't have SD value I would call.
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