Let's imagine two scenarios. In both scenarios, we're heads up on the turn. The pot is $100 and we have exactly $100 behind. The board is K
and for the sake of argument we can put our villain on a weak king with 100% confidence.
In scenario one, assume that we hold 7
-- so we are drawing dead. If we shove $100 into the $100 pot, the math is easy: We break even if villain folds 50% of the time.
But what if we hold A
? We will win the pot on the river 25% of the time even if called. How often does the villain need to fold here to make our semi-bluff profitable? And how do we do the calculation?