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How do I calculate odds for semi-bluffs?

AcquittalAcquittal Posts: 179Member
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Let's imagine two scenarios. In both scenarios, we're heads up on the turn. The pot is $100 and we have exactly $100 behind. The board is Kspade9spade4heart3diamond and for the sake of argument we can put our villain on a weak king with 100% confidence.

In scenario one, assume that we hold 7diamond8diamond-- so we are drawing dead. If we shove $100 into the $100 pot, the math is easy: We break even if villain folds 50% of the time.

But what if we hold AspadeQspade? We will win the pot on the river 25% of the time even if called. How often does the villain need to fold here to make our semi-bluff profitable? And how do we do the calculation?



  • whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    Let's say P = probability that villain folds to a turn shove

    EV of semibluff = ( P x pot size we win when he folds ) + [ (1-P) x ( % we win when called x amount we win when called - % we loose when called x amount we loose when called)
    = ( P x 100 ) + ( 1-P) x ( 25% x 200 - 75% x 100)
    = 100 P -25 (1-P)
    = 100 P - 25 + 25 P
    = 125 P - 25
    EV = 0 when 125 P = 25 or P = 1/5 = 20%

    So, you need villain to fold at least 20% of the time in order to break even.
  • AcquittalAcquittal Posts: 179Member
    Thanks! That's extremely helpful, whatsyourplay.

    It also makes me think that I should be semi-bluffing the turn a bit more. If I'm profitable even when called 79% -- seventy-nine percent!! -- of the time with an overcard and a flush draw, then it's a play that I should be making more often. Especially since there's so much more fold equity on the turn.
  • whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    sure, no prob.
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