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Horizontal bar graph (winning vs losing sessions)

BartBart Posts: 5,949AdministratorLeadPro
edited February 2017 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Hey guys, so I have talked a decent amount in the past about how winning % of sessions is a very overrated statistic. I feel strongly that the amount that you win in large sessions vs the amount that you lose in large losing sessions is a much better way to look at data (winning big vs losing small).

I've spoken about how one can graph this concept by using 0 as a Y vertical axis and bar graphing your sessions where positive sessions move from 0 to right and negative sessions move from 0 to left. I was cleaning out an old hard drive this morning and I actually found such a graph!! It came from my 5/10NL records at the Commerce in 2009. I have attached it to this post.

This data is pre Poker Journal when I used to enter all of my data by hand into an Excel Spreadsheet template that a prop player wrote back in 2004 at the Bicycle Casino. The line graph at the bottom graphs $$ vs sessions as I couldn't figure out how to do it against hours.

Some of you are way into the math of statistics and I thought it would be interesting to discuss what we can learn from this graph.
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Comments

  • Stonewalled Posts: 480Subscriber
    That's pretty awesome, I'd love to have a way to do that.
  • BlackBoxEquity Posts: 165Subscriber
    @Stonewalled - Should be pretty straightforward to create something similar in Excel (unless you have never touched it).

    @Bart - I don't think there is much to take away from it statistically. Just a helluva year with minuscule downswings; a graph every player on this site should strive for.

  • BartBart Posts: 5,949AdministratorLeadPro
    edited February 2017
    BlackBoxEquity said:
    @Stonewalled - Should be pretty straightforward to create something similar in Excel (unless you have never touched it).

    @Bart - I don't think there is much to take away from it statistically. Just a helluva year with minuscule downswings; a graph every player on this site should strive for.

    I just think session winning % is such an irrelevant statistic and I am always surprised at how often players ask me about what their winning % should be. We should be much more concerned with having disproportionate amounts of large winning sessions vs losing sessions.

    Looking at this graph:

    Losing Sessions

    $3000+ -- 4
    $2000+ -- 10

    Winning Sessions

    $5000+ -- 8
    $4000+ -- 16
    $3000+ -- 33

    So what if my % of winning sessions was only say 55%? Can you see how irrelevant this statistic is especially if we have small winning or losing sessions that are say within .1 STD per session from the mean?

  • MikeG Posts: 989Subscriber
    I just like the bottom graph (stock market chart looking graph).
  • BartBart Posts: 5,949AdministratorLeadPro
    MikeG said:
    I just like the bottom graph (stock market chart looking graph).
    That certainly wasn't that stock market graph in 2009
    :???:
  • MikeG Posts: 989Subscriber
    lol that's not what I meant. I meant I like the trend graph. I think everything else is just noise. I don't care if I win 90% of my sessions or 10%. I don't care if I average $1k wins and $5k losses. All I care about is that long term I'm moving upward and making money.

    That's not to say all of the other stuff is useless. Maybe some graphs are better at helping people spot tilt. Maybe other graphs show that you're a winner on weekends and loser during the week. Etc. But, ultimately, I just want to see my graph going from bottom left to top right.
  • BartBart Posts: 5,949AdministratorLeadPro
    edited February 2017
    MikeG said:
    lol that's not what I meant.
    I know that but I thought 2009 was an interesting year in the stock market

    :cool:

    But I do think that that type of horizontal graph is important, perhaps for mental game.
  • MikeG Posts: 989Subscriber
    What I think that this graph / discussion is best for is something you've said in the past: Play longer sessions when you're winning and shorter when you're losing (which is sort of the opposite of a lot of people who want to 'get even'). Most players would be well served to start booking a LOT more losses. Who care if you only when 50% of your sessions if you're winning twice as much on winning days as you're losing on losing days?
  • I like this style of graph, I might start doing this for myself.

    As you mentioned, much more relevant than winning session %s
  • FreeLunch Posts: 1,309Pro
    Its not that hard to export from poker journal to excel and do this kind of analysis if you want to do it on your current data.
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,438Subscriber
    I use excel to track everything getting my average $/hr. Quite pleased with it.
  • BartBart Posts: 5,949AdministratorLeadPro
    Fuzzypup said:
    I use excel to track everything getting my average $/hr. Quite pleased with it.
    Are you able to graph $$ and hours or do you have to do it via session (row)?
  • irwinbetirwinbet Posts: 383Subscriber
    Would there be value in tracking your hourly win rate by length of session? Or average length of winning sessions compared to losing sessions?
  • BartBart Posts: 5,949AdministratorLeadPro
    edited February 2017
    irwinbet said:
    Would there be value in tracking your hourly win rate by length of session? Or average length of winning sessions compared to losing sessions?
    I would guess any data could be valuable, including winrate per day of the week as well. In my case I know for a fact that the shorter the session the lower my hourly, for obvious reasons. If I were to track sessions in which I played over 12 hours I would surmise that my hourly in those sessions would be at least double my average hourly.
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,438Subscriber
    Bart said:
    Fuzzypup said:
    I use excel to track everything getting my average $/hr. Quite pleased with it.
    Are you able to graph $$ and hours or do you have to do it via session (row)?
    I'm sure there is a way to do it. But it doesn't matter to me. I just see my win rate. I can even track it if I am playing early, late, weekdays, weekends. I do make quite a bit more on weekends than on the weekdays.
  • aaron Posts: 498Subscriber
    edited February 2017
    I still do all of my tracking in excel and at certain points In the year I'll update my W/L record at different dollar intervals (doesn't take too long if you do this periodically). So for 2/5 I may have +/-300, +/- 700, 1k, 1500, 2k -- This gives me a pretty good visual of how sessions play out over time. I do find my win % is pretty consistent year to year and my w/l in 1k+ sessions is always greatly skewed towards Ws.

    While Bart is correct that win % isn't the most important statistic the 2 should be correlated (win % and win/loss in bigger dollar sessions). If not it's probably due to tilt or lockdown syndrome
  • aaron Posts: 498Subscriber
    Bart said:
    irwinbet said:
    Would there be value in tracking your hourly win rate by length of session? Or average length of winning sessions compared to losing sessions?
    I would guess any data could be valuable, including winrate per day of the week as well. In my case I know for a fact that the shorter the session the lower my hourly, for obvious reasons. If I were to track sessions in which I played over 12 hours I would surmise that my hourly in those sessions would be at least double my average hourly.
    Why is your hourly lower in shorter sessions? Stack depth?

  • MikeG Posts: 989Subscriber
    Why is your hourly lower in shorter sessions? Stack depth?
    If you play longer when you're winning and shorter when you're losing, then your longer sessions are 1) going to have better hourly just by survival bias 2) better hourly because of better image and 3) better hourly because you're deeper.
  • BartBart Posts: 5,949AdministratorLeadPro
    aaron said:
    Bart said:
    irwinbet said:
    Would there be value in tracking your hourly win rate by length of session? Or average length of winning sessions compared to losing sessions?
    I would guess any data could be valuable, including winrate per day of the week as well. In my case I know for a fact that the shorter the session the lower my hourly, for obvious reasons. If I were to track sessions in which I played over 12 hours I would surmise that my hourly in those sessions would be at least double my average hourly.
    Why is your hourly lower in shorter sessions? Stack depth?

    Besides time constraints I usually play shorter sessions when playing badly and or bad image. Losing also usually brings me down to the cap. If I'm in a long season it is usually because I have a very good image, have stack depth and am thus winning a large amount.
  • ijustcameforthefreecookies Posts: 101Subscriber
    edited February 2017
    Bart said:
    Fuzzypup said:
    I use excel to track everything getting my average $/hr. Quite pleased with it.
    Are you able to graph $$ and hours or do you have to do it via session (row)?
    Do you mean something like below but in graph? (hourly rates vs instances)
    $-30-20ph: 6
    $-20-10ph: 12
    $-10-0ph:16
    $0-10ph: 15
    $10-20ph: 22
    $20-30+: 35


    Or total hours following total income
    or average $ph as total hours increase (trending up or down)
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