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Does This Hand Play Itself?

Hero - Just sat down, $500
V - 30 year old Asian dude with about $2,000

Pre-flop

All fold to V in CO who makes it $20
I'm in BB with AK and make it $60
V makes it $160 and I call

Flop

two small, unsuited cards, and a king. Basically, xxK

I shove all-in, V calls, and shows AA

When I saw the flop I figured it was less likely he he AA or KK since I had AK. Should it have been obvious to me when he made it $160 that I was looking at Aces?

Are you ever doing anything different given I have no read on him?

Comments

  • MasonIsAClown Posts: 102SubscriberProfessional
    why shove the flop? Check flop so we don't give him a chance to get off QQ/JJ here. At least not yet. After this flop with this stack, we aren't looking for a reason to fold, we are looking to make sure the money gets in.

    Shoving pre is fine for 100bb against plenty of villains but your description of villain is still pretty vague, I get you didn't have much info, but a general impression of his type of look and demeanor is gonna go a long way without anything else.
  • neverlearn2 Posts: 2,862Subscriber
    Old Asian 4 bets you. What's his range you put him on cause no BS I would fold AKo preflop to the 4bet.

    Why donk shove here? If our only hope is say QQ we beat then he's never calling the shove. Are we really saying he has KQ in his 4 bet range too?

    I'd fold pre to the raise and would check flop and re evaluate his action for sure.
  • MasonIsAClown Posts: 102SubscriberProfessional
    He's described as 30. That's not old lol.
  • neverlearn2 Posts: 2,862Subscriber
    MasonIsAClown said:
    He's described as 30. That's not old lol.
    Yea ur right haha. I just read old. Changes a little but I think the live 4bet is really strong still.

  • ZachWaldman Posts: 65Subscriber
    If I were to fold here against many of the regs at Commerce pre-flop, I think that would be a mistake.

    He's in the CO, so he could be opening wide, yes?

    I re-raise in the BB, so isn't it possible he thinks I'm defending wide?

    Would you really fold AK pre-flop when you see players like this guy do the same exact thing with 99, TT, JJ, QQ, AQ, KQ, ATs, maybe even wider?

    Doesn't me having AK make it much more likely that he doesn't have AA or KK?

    The only read I had would fall into the stereotype category. Commerce, Asian, Reg. :)

  • neverlearn2 Posts: 2,862Subscriber
    yea i mean i guess im a victim of not playing at commerce here then. IM just used to never seeing a 4bet unless its like AKs or QQ+.

    All your points about not folding are fine and yea I can agree with all of that. I originally wrote fold cause i read OLD only then i still stuck with it cause I just dont run into a lot of 4bets preflop that arent very very premium hands. But I could see that being a bad fold and maybe with a slightly different view on villain i wont think about folding. I do feel your range on him is way to wide though.

    As played though I still feel like without reads and stuff, checking flop is the best choice.
  • ZachWaldman Posts: 65Subscriber
    Gotcha. So, if I check flop and he shoves, you think it's an easy fold? I only have about a pot sized bet left.
  • neverlearn2 Posts: 2,862Subscriber
    ZachWaldman said:
    Gotcha. So, if I check flop and he shoves, you think it's an easy fold? I only have about a pot sized bet left.
    Id ask myself if he is the type to turn QQ into a bluff here. IMO most players wont shove with QQ with the preflop action but I could some guys taking a bet/fold line here in a weird see where Im at small bet.

    So yea if he shoves im folding. Your hand looks very strong and with the SPR what it is im sure the asian man knows it too.

  • ohsnapzbrah Posts: 632Subscriber
    100bb deep, the old online grinder in me says ship it pre given stack depth and position.

    The live player in me thinks the call is fine preflop. But we have to x the flop. He isn't going to call with QQ or JJ, our flatting range of a 4bet here has to be literally AA/KK/AK. Maybe QQ, but I'd rather just ship QQ preflop as there are more hands (AK/JJ) that can call that we beat than with AK.
  • stayinschool Posts: 2,969Subscriber
    I'd call pre, check flop for sure, shove is really bad. Stops him from bluffing, might let JJ or QQ off the hook
  • ZachWaldman Posts: 65Subscriber
    Thank you friends, this really helped. Back to battle.
  • MikeG Posts: 989Subscriber
    So all the people who want to call off one-third of our stack preflop out of position, what are you doing on 3 7 T boards?
  • ijustcameforthefreecookies Posts: 101Subscriber
    edited February 2017
    I don't like this hand at all.
    Would you really fold AK pre-flop when you see players like this guy do the same exact thing with 99, TT, JJ, QQ, AQ, KQ, ATs, maybe even wider?
    Do most players in this pool do this? have you seen this player do this? Or are you leveling yourself.

    The flop shove is horrendous, which I'm sure you're aware of.

    If you believe villain is genuinely 4betting you light, why flat here with AK? Your plan is to stack off on A or K high boards you should be 5bet jamming here. Calling just seems really, really bad.

    1. You believe villain is 4betting light, you allow them to realise their equity
    2. Villain has control of the pot, 70% of the time you are going to miss the board - are you now check folding as their entire range will be barrelling/jamming then (if they are 4betting so light, they aren't going to play passive postflop)
    3. You miss your chance to utilise the fold equity of your hand - if they raising this wide here is their hand assignment:
    AA - 3 combos
    KK - 3 combos
    QQ - 6 combos
    JJ - 6 combos
    TT - 6 combos
    99 - 6 combos
    AQs - 3 combos
    AKs - 3 combos
    AKo - 9 combos

    You have 43% (46% if suited) equity vs this range assuming they never fold.

    Realistically of the 45 combinations of hands V could have, at most 24 call (QQ+, AKs, AKo), meaning 53.3% of the time villain will fold and you win the $222 in the pot. The time's the V call you have 39.5% equity, which is $395 of the $1000 pot.

    So for $440 cost shoving has an EV value of $617 (+$177 each time). This goes up even higher is your assumption that they 4bet even lighter then that...

    Now lets look at calling.

    You are paying $100 to get into the pot of $220. 30% of the time you will realise some equity and hit the flop AND 8% or so of those times villain will own you with AA/KK (will be less taking into account card removal) + all the times they flop a set and you flop top pair.

    So say, 20% of the time after calling you win $320 (pot). This gives your call $64 - the way played I don't think a worse hand EVER calls you on the flop, about 10% of the time you're getting stacked -450, and 70% you're check folding -$70
    Calling is $64 - $45 - $70. Total -$51 EV every time you call. (This is pretty gorilla numbers here, times they flop two pair, times you may get their AK to fold, times you MAY get some value).

    Deeper, sure feel free to play post flop... but going into it with an SPR of 1 OOP as the caller with AK is horrible
  • Please note: I AM NOT saying always jam AK.

    If you are sure your villains range is wide, jam when 100bb deep.

    If their 4bet narrows villains range like in most live games, their hands are QQ+, AKs, AKo, A5s (which is still wide, I rarely see people 4bet AK here unless history) you only have 43% equity, 34% when narrowed to AKs, QQ+... just fold and let them win the times they have their 4bet bluff hand - it's going to be so infrequent it isn't worth contesting.

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