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should I call?

Krista Posts: 166Subscriber
2-5 game. Villain was trying to play 1-3 and currently sits with 450. I cover. V limps in early position and I raise to 25 with 9 9. One player behind calls and V calls.

Pot 80. Flop A 9 2. V checks, I bet 40, player behind folds and villain calls.

Pot 160. Turn 5. V checks, hero bets 110. V calls.

Pot 380. River Q. Now villain shoves 275. My flopped set just turned into 9 high flush. Should I call?
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Comments

  • Acidhauss Posts: 291Subscriber
    Ugly spot.

    From my experience the only value he really has is a hand like AxKd if he limped in (like passive players sometimes do), or a hand like K3dd.

    Would he limp in with a hand like KdQx or KdXx? Maybe but i think its pretty unlikely as he'd also have to take one off, oop, with a 1cFD and KQ high on an Axxddc board.

    I also think recreational players rarely take this (rather strong) line with JdXx.

    Arguments in Folding

    +He prefers playing smaler games so think he will be less incentivised to make big bluffs.
    +Its a pretty strong line.
    +Prob has it
    +Its a pretty difficult spot i.e were guessing so folding is the more prudent option.


    Adcantages in Calling

    +Hard for him to have it
    +Could be randomly spazzing out turn (this is live poker after all). This is probably worth a few of the above points put together.

    If you asked me a year ago I'd say this is a snap fold. I'm less sure now. I'd still however fold and wouldnt really blame you for calling either.
    by 1Krista
  • misterbasicmisterbasic Posts: 62Subscriber
    I lean towards a call. I play both 2/5 and 1/3 and I've seen villains at this level turn hands into a bluff when 4-flushes come out. Especially when they are first to act and don't have a diamond, they are so scared that if they check you will shove, so they do it first hoping to make you fold everything except the nut or second nut diamond. There some stupid theorem on a 2+2 sticky post that says when a 4-flush comes out on the river you should bet out as a bluff and it will be highly successful. Maybe these people are all reading this?

    Now obviously he could easily have it and be shoving for value as well.

    That being said, you only need to be good here 29.5% of the time to break even. I think you're good here more often than that. His shove here is so polarized; it's your typical nuts or napkins (any-non flush turned into a bluff) scenario. I tend to hero call these spots just because I've witnessed enough bizarro hands shoving as bluffs here.
  • stayinschool Posts: 2,969Subscriber
    I'd fold, bluffs seem tough to find, has to be turning something into a bluff which is possible but a little unlikely. We can also have a fair few better diamonds to call.

  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,287Subscriber
    While the logic of what everyone saying is correct on why to call you can remove lots of hands from his range if you examine the hand more closely.

    Is it more likely he limp/called with K 9 x hand? Or is it way more likely he limped called with K X which he would absolutely slowplay on the turn thinking we have AK exactly. Or even K X

    1/3 players call raises with that hand so there are 9 combos of it here.

    @ 2/5 I rarely see a fish bluff over $200 like this. Only maniacs and capable regs do. On rare occasion someone spazzes out. But even if we give him 1 combo of spazz here we still fold.

    If you have a high hand at your casino then EVEN MORE so he is slowplaying to hit that 1 outer.
  • misterbasicmisterbasic Posts: 62Subscriber
    Not so sure. The last 3 times I found myself in a similar situation -- where OOP villain C/C, C/C, BOMB LEAD when the fourth flush card falls, I tank hero-called with 3rd or 4th high flush and I've been correct each time. Two times in a 1/3 game and once in a 2/5 game. Now I do understand this is a very small sample size I'm referring to, and I also had a bit of a read at the table where their behavior seemed suspiciously bluffy -- but it does go to show that players at the lower stakes are indeed capable of making such bluffs.
    by 1Krista
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,287Subscriber
    Yes they are capable but the ratio of when they make this play and when they have it is way more separated than you think.

    So here our hero only has to be correct in calling 41% of the time if my math is right.

    So do bad players blast the river as a bluff 41% of the time?
  • Krista Posts: 166Subscriber
    edited March 2017
    Spoiler:


    Thanks for all the viewpoints. Everyone made good points and I ultimately did fold, thinking that he had to be polarized and he didn't seem capable of a bluff like that. I asked him to turn over his hand and he did show. I was very surprised by what he turned over. A 8 I couldn't figure out if he thought he was bluffing or value betting but I suspect he just didn't know what to do with it and rather than have to decide whether to call if I bet the river, he just shoved?
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,287Subscriber
    wow!

    Well replay that hand in your head and how he reacted. Sounds like he is clueless. If he snap called the flop and turn without hesitation or consideration I would lean on clueless. Consider if you acted uncomfortably after the turn call or on the river. Even though he is not formally trained in spotting tells because he is a human he has some intuition about when someone is feeling a certain way. It is possible he picked up something on you unconsciously and made a move not realizing what he picked up.

    A hand that fits how he plays is also A X K which I failed to mention.

    Sometimes the fish do get you.

    A big fish at my casino got me the other day with a XRAI on the flop in a multiway pot. I examined all the evidence, people left behind to act, he was offering me 2:1. I bet large on the flop and he XRAI $350. He shows his nothing and is proud of himself..... what he didn't realize is that his nothing had my nothing dominated :D But this is the 10% chance of spazz. I have beat this guy so much and so often that eventually something like this was bound to happen. But what I learned from this a betting pattern he displays. He should have never shown me that bluff. I told him good bluff.
  • misterbasicmisterbasic Posts: 62Subscriber
    Fuzzypup said:
    Yes they are capable but the ratio of when they make this play and when they have it is way more separated than you think.

    So here our hero only has to be correct in calling 41% of the time if my math is right.

    So do bad players blast the river as a bluff 41% of the time?
    29.5% -- hero is getting more than 2:1 on the call.
  • misterbasicmisterbasic Posts: 62Subscriber
    275 : (275+380)
    = 275 : 655
    = 275/930
    = 29.5%
    by 1Bart
  • BartBart Posts: 5,725AdministratorLeadPro
    edited March 2017
    stayinschool said:
    I'd fold, bluffs seem tough to find, has to be turning something into a bluff which is possible but a little unlikely. We can also have a fair few better diamonds to call.

    I agree with Pete that someone turning a hand into a bluff here is rare. You've bet flop and turn and players from upfront often will be happy to go to showdown with an ace, not bluff a 4th diamond.

    However this hand is really strange as it is consistent with the line of him having the K. If you think a player is going to raise AK a vast majority of the time preflop AND not call with some stiff of K hand like K X× to run a bluff than the only conclusion that can be made is that he turned the nuts with a two card K hi flush. But why would he shove the river now? Sometimes with strange lines at this at this level I just throw my hands up and call getting 2.5-1 (29% of the time needed). Obv your opponent was just clicking buttons (he had no idea what he was doing).

    Bart
  • Acidhauss Posts: 291Subscriber
    Yeah, its just really hard for him to have the Kd when you do the hand-reading. He specificaly needs to have either:

    a) Limp-called AK UTG
    b) Limp-called a hand like KQdx oop and taken two off with a 1cFD (OOP)
    c) Limp called a hand like K3dd oop, slowplayed it on the turn and (presumedly insta) donk-jammed the river - I think even a lot of bad players would fold this with no other limpers behind. (Bad players will often ask "whos in the pot?" before deciding to peel with a speculative hand).

    It doesnt make a ton of sense, however, for the reasons I gave above in my OP still folded.
  • Krista Posts: 166Subscriber
    Sometimes it is really tough to play against players who have no idea what they are doing. Upon reflection, I thought that I should have called because I really had him on Ax based on how he had acted on the flop and turn calls. I didn't think he would play AKo that way because he seemed really hesitant to make those flop and turn calls- and he likely would have raised pre flop with AK. If you take AK out of his range then it is really hard for him to have the K unless he had turned the flush - which I really didn't think he had based on my live read and the fact that this player would, imo, have check raised the turn with a flush. He could definitely have had A with J or A with T tho. As far as my giving off live tells that made him do this, I don't think so. I certainly think that I give off live tells in some hands - but this wasn't one of them. I was fairly sure I was good on the turn and liked my hand a lot. On the river, I was just looking at him - I didn't even look at the river card until after he moved in - so there is no way that I gave off a live tell based on that river card.
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,287Subscriber
    edited March 2017
    misterbasic said:
    275 : (275+380)
    = 275 : 655
    = 275/930
    = 29.5%
    I thought 41% looks wrong. For got to add the better's $270. Brain Fart!

    So even so he isn't bluffing here 29.5% of the time. That is close to the optimal bluffing frequency for the river.
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