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Turned set vs pfr 3! on ace high flop

ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,085Subscriber
edited March 2017 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
so villain is a pro is generallt very tight but he can also bluff but I havent seen him bluff that often.

hero raises to 40 in straddle pot in co with w K K and I have 1200. villain has 1000 and 3! on btn to 120. hero calls.

flop A T 7 hero ch villain ch

turn K hero checks. I checked because villain either has a set of aces a big ace he checked back flop has a pair like QQ-TT or has air. ie. he will either bet w his made hands bluff or I might get one street.

villain bets $160. i call. pot $600 ish

river 4 i check and villain bets $425. leaving himself a little less than $300

this guy is capable of bluffing and thin value betting and is considered one of the tighter regs

hero?

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Comments

  • MonadPrimeMonadPrime Posts: 803Member
    I'm counting AA, QJs, Axcc that we lose to (17). We're ahead of TT/77/44/ATs/A7s/A4s/KTs/AK (22). I think it's an easy call and could be argued shove for thin value but there is uncertainty in my ahead category for sure so calling seems standard probably.
  • LesterDiamondLesterDiamond Posts: 152Subscriber
    I assume you are playing 5/10 due to pfr size. I don't know any good pros who play 5/10 with $1k stack vs $1500+ Stack, so I take that term loosely. Secondly, you have your hand as Kc and the turn as Kc. Not sure which one is incorrect. Then you say he can bluff, but doesn't bluff very often.Thats like saying he can drive a car, but I never see him driving down the street. I can't see folding middle set here in game for these sizings. Obviously the combos of AK are bleh because of our hand and makes AAA more glaring, but "pro" and "button 3bet" and random boredom of live poker making people do odd shit, I think it's a call. Would be also helpful/pertinent to know where the Kc is in the hand. Going backdoor flush makes more of a lean in hero fold category, but still don't see this getting folded as played in the moment.
  • DrSpace Posts: 716Subscriber
    Can you please tag the game stakes in your posts -- thank you !
  • DrSpace Posts: 716Subscriber
    LesterDiamond said:
    I assume you are playing 5/10 due to pfr size. I don't know any good pros who play 5/10 with $1k stack vs $1500+ Stack, so I take that term loosely. Secondly, you have your hand as Kc and the turn as Kc. Not sure which one is incorrect. Then you say he can bluff, but doesn't bluff very often.Thats like saying he can drive a car, but I never see him driving down the street. I can't see folding middle set here in game for these sizings. Obviously the combos of AK are bleh because of our hand and makes AAA more glaring, but "pro" and "button 3bet" and random boredom of live poker making people do odd shit, I think it's a call. Would be also helpful/pertinent to know where the Kc is in the hand. Going backdoor flush makes more of a lean in hero fold category, but still don't see this getting folded as played in the moment.
    It appears to be straddled 2/5 (10$ straddle)
  • DrSpace Posts: 716Subscriber
    edited March 2017
    Not sure what the question is as played -- call.

    Seems like you need to raise the turn for value from AK and Ax ♣️ the bet sizing on turn makes AAA less likely given bdfd. ♣️ is a bit of an action killer on river too. More combos of other value hands than AA. If his range is that narrow fold preflop.
  • AnarchyDevil Posts: 16Subscriber
    is he a tight reg or a pro? i assume he has played you before and knows how tight you are if he is half as good as you make him sound then he would have only value on river and given the run out he would have aces or AJc or AQc. your hand looks like a big ace or even AK, i dont think he will try to rep back door flush to get you off your hand.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,085Subscriber
    edited March 2017
    LesterDiamond said:
    I assume you are playing 5/10 due to pfr size. I don't know any good pros who play 5/10 with $1k stack vs $1500+ Stack, so I take that term loosely. Secondly, you have your hand as Kc and the turn as Kc. Not sure which one is incorrect. Then you say he can bluff, but doesn't bluff very often.Thats like saying he can drive a car, but I never see him driving down the street. I can't see folding middle set here in game for these sizings. Obviously the combos of AK are bleh because of our hand and makes AAA more glaring, but "pro" and "button 3bet" and random boredom of live poker making people do odd shit, I think it's a call. Would be also helpful/pertinent to know where the Kc is in the hand. Going backdoor flush makes more of a lean in hero fold category, but still don't see this getting folded as played in the moment.
    5/5 with a straddle.. sorry If I didnt say that.. I changed my hand to K diamond.. K club was def on the turn putting a backdoor flush .. see this is what happens when i try to post these while at the table..

    Sorry about the confusion on the bluffing part.. He doesnt play many hands.. but when he is the pfr he does tend to play his range aggressively. ie high cards etc.. although I have not seen him bluff that often he has shown up on the river with some rather big bluffs..again playing off his perceived range advantage..

    that said.. when he checks this flop then barrels both turn and river.. what value hands can he have?
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,085Subscriber
    AnarchyDevil said:
    is he a tight reg or a pro? i assume he has played you before and knows how tight you are if he is half as good as you make him sound then he would have only value on river and given the run out he would have aces or AJc or AQc. your hand looks like a big ace or even AK, i dont think he will try to rep back door flush to get you off your hand.
    Thats what I thought.. When I play versus better players.. Ones who can bet thinner and hand read I tend to play way more passively since they can fold with a higher percentage.. I also try to use this by betting and raising in spots where I can get them to fold..

    Given his tight range I was torn between calling river and shoving.. does shoving get me called by worse? thats the real question..

    ww
  • iamallin Posts: 1,173SubscriberProfessional
    Dont like it but fold.

    I would 4 bet pre Co vs btn. Seems mandatory. You should frequently be going to war Co vs btn. And you have kk.

    U would call with all flushes, qjs and AcKx

    Kk is a fold since although it is a very strong hand it doesn't actually beat any of his value bets.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,085Subscriber
    iamallin said:
    Dont like it but fold.

    I would 4 bet pre Co vs btn. Seems mandatory. You should frequently be going to war Co vs btn. And you have kk.

    U would call with all flushes, qjs and AcKx

    Kk is a fold since although it is a very strong hand it doesn't actually beat any of his value bets.
    Pot is $560.. $425 to call. His sizing is certainly polarizing.. Hence the question of my river play.

    So his value range is what? AA-3 AK-4 TT -3 so that's 10 value hands.. I don't think he has any flushes at all since he doesn't 3 bet say AQ and since the K clubs is on the turn its impossible for him to have those..

    So considering he can bluff his perceived value range I don't think I can ever fold here.. It's just a matter of is there any value in raising all in?

    ww
  • iamallin Posts: 1,173SubscriberProfessional
    edited March 2017
    He has a lot of flushes

    All suited baby aces..and 78cc 79cc 76cc

    Aqcc is a standard 3 bet for value against a Co open I don't know if he will make it though
  • iamallin Posts: 1,173SubscriberProfessional
    edited March 2017
    And so do you.

    I don't think you will see tt and ak here that frequently btw. Jmo.

    I don't think calling is awful..I will probably call too..but it's an emotional call.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,085Subscriber
    iamallin said:
    He has a lot of flushes

    All suited baby aces..and 78cc 79cc 76cc

    Aqcc is a standard 3 bet for value against a Co open I don't know if he will make it though
    he three bet me.. how can he have those? he is a tight player.. he is not 3 betting with baby suited connectors nor AQ imho..
  • iamallin Posts: 1,173SubscriberProfessional
    What is more likely? He 3 bet you with a speculative hand in position for 120 dollars or he is making a bold bluff on the river for 425 dollars?
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,085Subscriber
    then if hes 3 betting w spec why not bet flop when the ace hits? that makes no sense
  • ClockClock Posts: 1,097Subscriber
    edited March 2017
    I think I would call.
    I don't think you can fold, unless you have some very good reads on him.

    If he pretty tight - I don't think he should have any flushes. (And if you think he can- it's a mandatory x/r on the turn!)
    He has 3 combos of AA, but also 3 combos of AK.
    Also it looks like a good spot to turn JJ (maybe 99 if he 3bets that) into a bluff.
    If he 3bets TT - that's 3 more combos we beat.

    Raising seems a bit too thin, I think I just call.
  • chilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    I think this a standard call. True that we don't beat his value range of flushes / AAA / QJ but hero's line is so weak that his range includes more bluffs and spazzes. I think those factors alone make it a call.

    Plus he has some value hands that bet the river like AK, AQ (?) , lower sets of TT / 77.

    I think too thin to raise river , but I don't see folding as a good option either.
  • pray4blank Posts: 135Subscriber
    Hard to see this being a bluff very often, as many light three bets hit enough of this board to check back river with showdown value.

    Hard to see this being QQ-JJ for similar reasons.

    I think TT and AA are obviously being bet here and most likely AK. However, I think AA is far and above the most likely, of these hands, to be checked on the flop.

    ...There is always the small possibility for straights and flushes...But...For many reasons indicated above, these hands are usually not part of his range.

    ---

    With all these things in mind, I think you may be good less than 50% and I would not raise.
  • pokertime Posts: 2,180Subscriber
    This is a weird hand. Good post.

    What can he think we have? QQ going for a gutter!

    His line seems like AA/TT or air. I think he bets AK OTF but maybe not. He could be worried you have TT or making sure he gets 2 street out of KK/QQ. If he's a pro he may just have a great read here.

    I don't think your hand really looks like AA or KK. Depends on history but does he know you can call a 3! With KK PF?
    Our line is so passive post we either missed, have a nutted hand or he think we are a fish that's calling down with KJ the whole time. By the river FD/SD get there and he still bets when we are the one calling with a draw in our range. His sizing is value and he's never folding to a shove unless it's complete air and he's saving the $300 to double up later.

    Our ranges are so polarized I might find a fold based on actual history and observations but I tend to agree with others just call and hope for the best. I'm not sure he ever overvalues and I'm not sure he bluffs enough to call. This is a pretty meta hand IMO that really requires being there and knowing this V.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,085Subscriber
    I thought this was an interesting spot that we might get into playing with some better regs.. so here is what happened..

    Spoiler:
    I didn't really ever consider folding since i had seen him make a few bigger bluffs on the river.. that was the whole point on checking my set after he checked the flop.. i also felt going all in wasn't going to get call by anything worse other than the set of tens and against me i didnt think he had that in his range..

    So i called and he said " good call " and mucked his hand...

    I honestly thought it likely he had AA but given the line i just wasn't going to fold my set.. but it also showed me that although he is a tighter reg he isn't really adjusting to me at all. it was like he had a standard line and he just plays it against whomever is the villain me or anyone else doesnt matter..

    about two rounds later he raise utg and i was the only caller in the bb with J T and i played the hand very similar to the one before flop was 648 two clubs I check called turn was the K I checked he bet kinda big.. on blank river he bet like $250 I snap called and he quickly flipped over A Ax weird that he would bet so thinly... again not adjusting to me at all. so you know what he did? he moved to my right...lol...

    so it really shows all that hard work of hand reading and adjusting to your opponents works...
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