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Fold Everything or Nothing?

LagityTagity Posts: 14SubscriberProfessional
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
$3/$5 NLH
Villain has been very aggressive post flop, especially with draws and made hands. Otherwise the table has been extremely loose passive and Villain has limped along with a wide range. Stacks are $1000 effective. From middle position, I limped behind a couple of early position limpers. Villain raises to $40 from late position. The blinds and limpers fold and I call. We go to the flop heads up. Total pot is about $100. The flop is JT9 all spades. I check, Villain looks at his cards and checks behind. The turn is the 7h, I lead for $60 and Villain raises to $160 and I call. The pot is now $420. The river is an off suit 5. I check and Villain instantly shoves all in for $800.

My thoughts during the hand: Preflop- because Villain elects to raise rather than limp along, I put him on a strong range: 99+, AJs+, AQ+. On the flop I expected Villain to bet with any set, two pair or high spade. He had been playing both his made hands and draws very fast. When he checked I thought he had whiffed or had the nuts or near nuts. On the turn his raise seemed to be again the nuts or air, 88 was possible. However, his giant over shove on the river seemed he did not want a call. By the river I did not think he was capable of over shoving anything less than the nuts for value. I also thought he would bet less with the nuts to get a call from a straight.

As played, I thought my choices were to either 1) folding everything except the nuts or 2) call with everything one pair or better.

Do you agree? If you believe he is bluffing on the river do you call with 22?

Comments

  • ILYA Posts: 129Subscriber
    I fold a straight on the river.

    If you don't understand why, I will tell you. He is thinking that you have an 8 and will not be able to fold. He is shoving a flopped flush.
  • SkinnybrownSkinnybrown Posts: 286Member
    I do not know of many rec villains that will turn a lone As here as a bluff for that amount.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    ILYA said

    I fold a straight on the river.

    If you don't understand why, I will tell you. He is thinking that you have an 8 and will not be able to fold. He is shoving a flopped flush.
    Yeah I think you are right here ILYA.. especially since he went back and checked his cards.. I think that is a tell to make sure he really hit it. Not only do I think he has a flush but its probably the nut flush..most players will bet a non nut flush to protect the player from drawing to it with the ace..

    Wendy
  • Once again this is a spot of extreme polarization. It is an interesting board because if your evaluation of his preflop tendencies are correct it is basically impossible for him to have a non A hi flush or straight flush. Even though he is very strong or very weak, I expect him to be very strong here like 100 times more than running a bluff. The 22 question is kind of difficult to answer because I think that there are some occasional airball bluffs that might beat that like say 44.

    Bart
  • LagityTagity Posts: 14SubscriberProfessional
    For what it's worth I agree with Bart my read in the hand was extreme polarization. Combos his AKs, AQs or KQs are only 3 combos. The combos of all other AK or AQ hands is much larger (not that I expect him to always bluff those). Given my read that he would bet smaller with a nutty hand on the river I leaned towards a call and that he was bluffing.

    Results:

    I called with 44. He had AQ, no spades.
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