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can we ever raise this river?

squishmytomatosquishmytomato Posts: 352SubscriberProfessional
edited March 2017 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
5/5, $1250 effective

Villain is a tight pro who has a tendency to cbet with a bit too high of frequency and subsequently shut down on the turn when he misses. I have never seen him triple barrel without a value hand - but he is capable of betting thin. He is also capable of making big folds. However he doesn't seem to adjust his lines based on his opponent.

The squishy tomato boy did have a great image and has shown down a couple large value hands in the last couple hours. BUT I recently got set over setted by a shorter (100bb) stack.

Villian raises to 30 in EP over a loose VIP UTG limp. I call in Hijack with 7 5. VIP in BB calls. UTG VIP calls. 4 ways to flop.

Flop ($120): Q J 5

Checks to V, who bets $65. I glance over to SB and see him ready to fold his cards and call. UTG folds.

Turn ($250): 5

V bets $165. I call.

River ($580): 4

V bets $420, leaving him about $550 behind.

Can we ever do anything but call here?

Do we ever have a value hand we can raise here besides 55? Do we ever have any bluffs? What do we do if we arrive here with QJ?
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Comments

  • maphacks Posts: 2,009Subscriber
    if we assume he never folds any valuehands, we have to shove. if we assume he sometimes folds AA/KK or doesn't bet those with such a big sizing all the time it's getting close. you will have a better idea than me what this villain is capable of.

    valuehand to raise would be QQ/JJ , depending how bad the VIP is I might call those with a high frequency pre.

    with given reads, I probably wouldn't bluffshove river with T9s or KTs ever. in order for me to bluff such a hand, I need some kind of read and this is really rare.

    QJ I would probably call unless you are really sure he isn't bluffing enough or never valuebets AQ which such a sizing (very possible). kind of live read thing , "technically" it's a must call.



  • irwinbetirwinbet Posts: 383Subscriber
    River is a shove. Given your description of the villain we can be pretty sure he has a value hand here. Your shove gives him about 4:1 on a call & I don't see him folding AA/KK or maybe even AQ/KQ for that price. I think just calling may be a a little MUTB thinking. He has all the combos of AA & KK as well as 12 each of AQ/KQ but only 3 combos each of QQ & JJ. I think you're missing value by not shoving on the river.
  • Idlecaillou Posts: 121Subscriber
    With the line you took here. IMO it looks like you have aq and he has kk or AA and thinks he is value betting or he has a bluff which is likely i feel.i think he could show up here with Ak possibly ? Considering we are never folding here I think you just shove river with trips.
    You hand looks weak when you flat the turn and hopefully he is trying to take advantage of that
    Could he have qq or Jj for sure but. More likely he is not blasting away on three streets with these hands
    Hope it helps
  • Idlecaillou Posts: 121Subscriber
    With qq or jj I see him maybe going for a check raise in turn looking like he missed the flop
  • Jack7777 Posts: 655Subscriber
    edited March 2017
    In both these I would just call. I think if you shove you are only getting better to call.

    Edit. I would not try to bluff in this spot.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    Even though it is @squishies life long bucket wish to stack me I am NOT the villain.. :wink:
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    I actually was at the table when this hand went down and I missed the action before the turn. I think I was looking at my phone--grrr...

    given villain barreled turn I think the squishmeister needs to put in a small raise on the turn.. We now KNOW this guy has something.. in playing 57 squishy is hoping for something like this..therefore he needs to ride the variance wave and if villain has QQ or JJ so be it. he has more AA and KK ..maybe even AK..

    so given there are only 6 combos of QQ or JJ and 12 combos of AA and KK and say maybe 1/3 of AKs that is way way too many not to raise just a tiny bit on turn.

    maybe make it .. $400.. I doubt he is going to fold turn. then that puts an easy all in on river..or better still leave him like $125 left.. he he ....

  • pandabird Posts: 48Subscriber
    edited March 2017
    Do you think he would value bet KK or AA for this sizing at the end? It's quite large, so maybe he's specifically targeting QJ. I don't think AQ bets for this sizing on river given he loses to QJ. This would also be a horrible bet sizing with QQ..if he has top boat, what is expecting you to call him with? He just knows you have a 5? I think V's likely hands are KK, AA, JJ and maybe 2 combos of QJ suited. Against that range it's an obvious shove, but if V is gonna fold out all the hands we beat and only call boats, just call. I think he probably should find a call with KK and AA given he beats QJ given the pot odds he would be getting but maybe not
  • Rysher8 Posts: 234Subscriber
    I think with this action, JJJ is the only hand you're behind. As Hammah said, this is a good time to ride the variance wave. I also like the idea of raising the turn. He's going to have a heck of a time folding QJ KK or AA when the 5 pairs, and you can rep some combo draws--or even an over enthusiastic AQ. Great spot to go for stacks.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    pandabird said:
    Do you think he would value bet KK or AA for this sizing at the end? It's quite large, so maybe he's specifically targeting QJ. I don't think AQ bets for this sizing on river given he loses to QJ. This would also be a horrible bet sizing with QQ..if he has top boat, what is expecting you to call him with? He just knows you have a 5? I think V's likely hands are KK, AA, JJ and maybe 2 combos of QJ suited. Against that range it's an obvious shove, but if V is gonna fold out all the hands we beat and only call boats, just call. I think he probably should find a call with KK and AA given he beats QJ given the pot odds he would be getting but maybe not
    Panda

    Squishy and I have played with this villain for as long as he has been coming to the casino. He doesnt seem to change his lines based on who the villain is.. So he keeps his thin value betting and will bet bigger and bigger each street he is called.. On this river I think villain felt Squishy had AQ or something like that. who knows. not even sure this guy is even hand reading..

  • chilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    Do we have any info correlation for bet sizing tells from preflop? Does $30 mean something different than $25 or 20? Does he always iso with that sizing? Are TT and JJ in his premium hand sizing range? Does he have anything else like rando KT or 9Ts?

    I think his river sizing is what gives me pause about raising. I would expect $275ish with AA / KK. The $420 sizing might indicate a more nutted range like QQ/JJ/QJ. But does he have QJ in his preflop $30 range? Or maybe he's a stoner 420 guy and tries to make that bet as an inside joke to other stoners.
  • squishmytomatosquishmytomato Posts: 352SubscriberProfessional
    edited March 2017
    @chilidog he never ever ever has bluff here, but his pre flop bet sizing is just based on limpers, not his own hand strength. considering the weak limp - he has most QJ here, jj qq kk aa. this is never kq in a million years. i highly doubt it is aq too.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    @chili

    What I can tell you about this guy is this.. He plays very few hands.. He has 3bet me a few times in good squeeze spots.. He is also the same villain in this hand crushlivepoker.com/forums/discussion/11064/turned-set-vs-pfr-3-on-ace-high-flop#latest

    His sizing means he has I think almost all value.. and I have not seen him make a play like this with 9T or KT..

  • MarcusMarcus Posts: 104Subscriber
    If he is a pro I dont think he is going for this sizing on the river with QQ since he would block top set. You lose to JJ but he might call all KK and AA to a river shove. Unlikely he has A5 here and at that it would have to be specifcally Ac5c. So you lose to 4 value hands (3 JJ, and 1 A5 / and maybe some QQ but unlikely) and you get called by 12 over pairs (6 AAand 6 KK) and some AQ hands. I am shoving
  • neverlearn2 Posts: 2,862Subscriber
    edited March 2017
    I'm with Hammah in raising turn.

    Also I'm shoving river. I'm assuming he has it cause of this thread but idk how you call flop hit gin and then slow down. If we call cause our hand is a bluff then I can see that
  • Jack7777 Posts: 655Subscriber
    edited March 2017
    squishmytomato said:
    5/5, $1250 effective

    Villain is a tight pro who has a tendency to cbet with a bit too high of frequency and subsequently shut down on the turn when he misses. I have never seen him triple barrel without a value hand - but he is capable of betting thin. He is also capable of making big folds. However he doesn't seem to adjust his lines based on his opponent.

    The squishy tomato boy did have a great image and has shown down a couple large value hands in the last couple hours. BUT I recently got set over setted by a shorter (100bb) stack.

    Villian raises to 30 in EP over a loose VIP UTG limp. I call in Hijack with 7 5. VIP in BB calls. UTG VIP calls. 4 ways to flop.

    Flop ($120): Q J 5

    Checks to V, who bets $65. I glance over to SB and see him ready to fold his cards and call. UTG folds.

    Turn ($250): 5

    V bets $165. I call.

    River ($580): 4

    V bets $420, leaving him about $550 behind.

    Can we ever do anything but call here?

    Do we ever have a value hand we can raise here besides 55? Do we ever have any bluffs? What do we do if we arrive here with QJ?
    I underlined why I think how I think. V is a pro. He is tight and only bets value for his third bet, shuts down if he doesn't it. When the board pairs, a pro should be concerned about trips. You say he's cautious and only bets for value. The 5 on the turn would cause some concern, then he bets half pot. By your definition he has a hand. If he's a pro then he has to put you on something. Why did you call the turn? So, he bets again, now putting $700 total into the pot. I have to give him some kind of credit. That's why I would call if I thought he slipped up, but even if he didn't-no way a pro would call a shove on a paired board unless he could win.
  • squishmytomatosquishmytomato Posts: 352SubscriberProfessional
    edited April 2017
    @jack7777 in v's eyes how can I ever have a hand that is beating kk? he would never expect me to have any 5x or jj or qq here. the 5 is a GREAT card for him in that now my range looks capped at QJ
    by 1Rysher8
  • Jack7777 Posts: 655Subscriber
    squishmytomato said:
    @jack7777 in v's eyes how can I ever have a hand that is beating kk? he would never expect me to have any 5x or jj or qq here. the 5 is a GREAT card for him in that now my range looks capped at QJ
    Thanks for responding. Are you going to post a spoiler later?
  • squishmytomatosquishmytomato Posts: 352SubscriberProfessional
    @jack7777 for sure I will
  • Letmewin1 Posts: 1,239Member
    #cooler
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