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slowplay vs get it in

squishmytomatosquishmytomato Posts: 352SubscriberProfessional
edited April 2017 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
$5/5, $1300 effective

I have a laggy image and have table covered.

V1 is a fun player who doesn't have a fold button when he has a made hand ($1300)
V2 is a super nit with a fold button the size of Cambodia ($600)
V3 is an unknown middle aged guy. Just moved to table. Wearing a fanny pack. Looks like a classic tourney donk. ($600)

Fun Player limps EP. Super Nit raises to $25 in cutoff. I call on the button with 8 7. SB calls. Tourney Donk calls in BB. Fun player calls.

Flop ($125): 6 9 10

Checks to Super Nit, who bets $65. I flat on the button. Tourney Donk makes it $225. Fun Player thinks for a minute and calls $225. Super Nit folds.

Now it's back to Squish.

If we think Fun Player almost always has a set or top two here (or the same hand) and is NEVER folding (and Tourney Donk is short now and is probably not folding either), is there any merit to flatting and getting it in on a non board pairing turn? Or do we just shovel it in as a 70% favorite right now? The only action killing cards are cards we block. What do you think?
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Comments

  • squishmytomatosquishmytomato Posts: 352SubscriberProfessional
    edited April 2017
    let's say they are sharing outs, and there's only (5) board pairing cards left for the turn and (6) cards that bring a one liner. there are (43) unseen cards.

    some quick EV calcs if we flat and assume fun player gets it in all the time, and tourney donk gets it in 50% on clean runouts:

    tree 1: 5/43 board pairing cards. we lose $0 more and get away.

    tree 2: 6/43 one liners. we make ~$250 80% of time (hard to get much more value here). we lose ~$250 20% of time when board pairs on river.

    tree 3: 32/43 clean cards. we make ~$1225 (1050 fun player, 350 tourney donk 50/50) 80% of the time. we lose 20% of the time.

    slowplay:

    5/43 = 0 ($0)
    6/43 = 200 ($28)
    32/43 = 980 ($725)
    overall EV: $753

    get it in now:

    $1225 at 71% vs v1 + v3 ranges
    overall EV: $869

    the ev calcs aren't EXACTLY right cuz we when we win we win $1225 and when we lose we lose $1050 given our assumptions. but this is enough math for the night.

    damn i need cardrunners EV.

  • Rysher8 Posts: 234Subscriber
    Yeah, just get it in there. You've got two players in the pot who overvalue their hands. Shovel the money in while they're still excited about their holdings.
    by 1fozbo
  • ClockClock Posts: 1,132Subscriber
    Dream spot!!! :tu: :cool: :tu:
    You can min-click to 385 and when tourney donk shoves it re-opens the betting :lol: :lol:
    I want to get it in NOOOOOOOOOOOOOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  • pokertime Posts: 2,194Subscriber
    GII!
  • pokertime Posts: 2,194Subscriber
    Of course verbally slowplay with a big scrunched up tomato face and then sheepishly say "what ever, I guess I'm all in".
  • KelbyMarvinKelbyMarvin Posts: 230Subscriber
    Lol get it in brah.
    You think he has a check/raise folding range?
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    So I know fanny pack guy.. (obvious kidderino a BIG fan.. he he ) he is a teacher by day and a pretty tight player .. considering he called the $225 I don't think he is folding either.. At worst he has a big overpair.

    When I am in these spots I always say to myself that I have to focus on getting the big stack all in.. he is the one who also lead out so he is also likely rather strong.. So I am raising here ..but say to something like just $575 or $600 ish.. make it a click back.. once fun player cr here I dont think he is ever folding.. and the pot will be so big that I think fanny pack guy might come along.. but I am not going to slowplay another street and risk not getting run players stack. That should always be the focus..

    the rest is just icing on the cake..

    I especially like the min click against the fun player because he is likely to not understand exactly what you are doing and ship with say two pair or a set .. whereas if you raise more he might just call..
  • chilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    Fold to the first $65 bet.
  • chilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    chilidog said:
    Fold to the first $65 bet.
    it's next next level

  • squishmytomatosquishmytomato Posts: 352SubscriberProfessional
    KSM said:
    Lol get it in brah.
    You think he has a check/raise folding range?
    no. im not worried about the short stack. i know i can get all the money in with the deep fun player now or ott. the questio is which is higher ev :)

  • chilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    I think there's too many action killers , or at least cards that they might perceive as bad for their hands. So I would reopen the betting now.
    by 1Rysher8
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