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Folding AA on flop, weak or disciplined?

It's a 2-5 game I am sitting about 1,800 deep, just won a big pot cracking a fellow's aces with pocket fives. I pick up aces in early position, raise to 25, and get one caller in the form of the person right to my left, every one else folds. Flop comes 945 rainbow. I lead for 50, he raises to 125. I think for a bit, mostly about the fact that in the three or four hours I have been at the table I have seen almost no one raise on the flop, except for the guy I just felted who had pocket aces. So I fold, figuring he almost certainly has a set of 9s, 4s , or 5s, or possible 45 for two pair. There are no real draws (67 seems s bit bold to raise, if he even calls with that). I felt good about the decision, but I wanted to make sure my thinking was sound. Was this too weak a fold? It's obviously a super exploitable fold, if someone had the brains and the balls to do it, but I doubt you see much of that at the 2-5 level. Thanks for your thoughts.
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Comments

  • bingyian Posts: 90Subscriber
    His sizing is sooo small. Calling once is mando. Evaluating turn sizing
  • Rocketman74Rocketman74 Posts: 451Subscriber
    - what was his stack size?

    - what was your read on this villain?

    - he can't have JJ, TT or 9X?

    - he can't have 87 or 67?

    - folding to an aggressive action on the flop or turn is never a huge mistake (especially against certain players.)

    - I'd want more evidence here.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,083SubscriberProfessional
    too weak..

    on a super dry board that doesn't have a straight possible you should be calling at least one street. Given you just beat this guy adds a level of him wanting to get back at you too. So then you have to ask yourself. what can this guy have? sets sure.. but two pairs there is only 45 really. Is this guy calling with 45?

    Now add all the overpairs he might have TT-KK. is he calling with those and then raising? His raise is also not that big.. could be an enticement to call with say a set or 2 pair but also could be him being tilted with A9 or K9..

    You don't have enough information and I am calling here with a very very high frequency. I am NOT reraising..

    Then I am going to pay attention to the size he bets turn how fast he makes this bet as well. The faster he makes a bet the weaker I think he is going to be. I make ALOT of decisions based on speed of betting.. its pretty simple.. players just think a little the bigger their hand because they have more options.. If they are weak they have only 1 to bet..

    bad fold imho..

  • pokertime Posts: 2,180Subscriber
    Agree his stack size matters and given his small sizing we should be calling once and seeing what he does OTT. He's likely to fire and we fold but I don't think a "sick lay down" is ever right here OTF.
  • Jesse_The_Suit Posts: 493Subscriber
    First of all, I think we can all agree that re-rerasing is an awful idea, so I clearly agree with you there Wendy.

    He had about 1K behind, maybe a bit more.

    I agree a smaller over-pair is a possiblity, but I sort of doubt he'd be raising when I just come out and pit the flop.

    As far as a read goes, he seemed like an extremely tight fellow, who was paying no attention to the action and waiting for big hands. Was watching game of thrones at the table and playing 10 percent of his hand. This makes me doubt the draws and 9X sorts of hands. Clearly I would have to call if it was a dry and high board I.e 23K because many people with call pre-flop and raise with AK.
  • Jesse_The_Suit Posts: 493Subscriber
    Honestly, I found the sizing to be more of a reason not to call, given that it's almost a min-raise which strikes me as a very nutted hand.
  • Jesse_The_Suit Posts: 493Subscriber
    I also certainly agree that this is highly depend on stack sizes. Obviously if he was short enough I'd be happy getting it all in.
  • pokertime Posts: 2,180Subscriber
    Yea but you are deep enough to call as you can still suck out on him if he has 2 pair or even set. I agree his hand seems strong but he may slow down if a big over hits as it could give you a set etc. he is also likely to pay if you do hit A as it's hard to fold a set.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,083SubscriberProfessional
    Jesse

    Yeah we are WAY WAY too deep to fold on the flop. You just have to call and see what villain does on the turn.. If he bets small again I am calling again.. and then if he bombs river I can find a fold. But this guy is probably tilted.. and given its you I just can't see how not calling to see the turn.

    I know my player pool well and there are a couple of OMCs that I might exploitatively fold this flop to them..but in general unless I know that villain won't trap to raise turn with say 2 pair or a set I just cant see how you can EVER fold here. EVER!
  • bingyian Posts: 90Subscriber
    I think small sizing is more indicative of 9x or an smaller overpair
  • Rocketman74Rocketman74 Posts: 451Subscriber
    Thehammah said:
    But this guy is probably tilted.. and given its you I just can't see how not calling to see the turn.
    I don't think villain in this hand is the same guy he just felted.

    I still don't fold the flop
  • Jesse_The_Suit Posts: 493Subscriber
    Thanks Wendy, I think my post might have been confusing. I just won a big pot off a different villain, so I have no reason to suppose that this fellow is tilting. I put that detail in their for the sake of explaining my own thinking, I.e the thought of cracking aces via sets was fresh in my mind. In short, Unless game of thrones is upsetting him, I have no reason to suspect tilt. Sorry for the confusion.
  • Jesse_The_Suit Posts: 493Subscriber
    I personally don't see too many people raising a pot sized bet with a top pair when said pair is a 9, but I could be wrong about that. A smaller overpair is certainly possible, but I didn't really see that as super likely, given the pot sized bet from me- which basically announces that I have an overpair. Maybe QQ-KK plays it that way, but not even all the time, and those hands are less likely because of the lack of a three bet.
  • Rocketman74Rocketman74 Posts: 451Subscriber
    Jesse_The_Suit said:
    I personally don't see too many people raising a pot sized bet with a top pair when said pair is a 9, but I could be wrong about that.
    People like to 'see where they're at' all they time. People also like to raise the flop with draws and medium strength hands to garner a free turn. The board is also fairly dry so that makes a set or two pair a little less likely (but not totally unlikely obviously.)

  • iamallin Posts: 1,173SubscriberProfessional
    He could have jj or qq or even tt bro..nomsaying

    When your opponent ca have worse for value you simply can't give up that quickly

    Deep stack poker can be confusing because you are told not to go broke with one pair...that means calling big river bets with one pair against a passive opponent..this flop raise does not merit the same respect imo
  • neverlearn2 Posts: 2,804Subscriber
    Do you think you were afraid of the big stack battle that might happen so you nitted up ?
  • nopair Posts: 350Subscriber
    Reraising is a far better play than folding.

    Do people in your game really raise head-up with flopped sets on a zero board like this? I'd say the chances this player has a set are less than 2%.
    by 1Clock
  • Letmewin1 Posts: 1,238Member
    edited May 2017
    You lose to 9 combos, if he's not calling with 67s then he doesn't have 45s either, you're ahead of 10's----->K's if you think he'd 3! K's pre then you can take 6 combos out I personally think there's a decent chance he'd just flat and cross his fingers not to see an A high board same goes for QQ, count the combos you beat that raise this flop "to see where they're at" and take it from there.

    I get it, you bet pot OTF hoping he calls with worse but he raised
    1) dry flop no need to bomb
    2) there are 2 more streets to play and you should at least entertain the "what ifs" in any spot b4 pushing your chips across the line.

    Bet ya the turn would have checked through a very high % of the time.
    Calling here is very standard.

    If you're going to play protect the stack this deep and only stack off when you have sets+ then you really should get up go home and book a nice W, please don't take offense but this a damn tight fold this deep with 2 streets left to play in a single raised HU pot.
  • stayinschool Posts: 2,969Subscriber
    Gotta call, people will play some 9x and TT, JJ like this
  • Jesse_The_Suit Posts: 493Subscriber
    This is a long post, there is no reason for folks to read it, but I thought I should respond in detail given that you have taken the time to advise me.

    Clearly, the community consensus is that this was too tight/weak a fold, but let me add some additional information about my thought process, the context for the hand, and my reasoning. I doubt it will render this a correct fold in the minds of most, but I think its useful for me as a learning exercise.

    First, some more info on the villain. I have been playing with this guy for a few hours, and based on what I have seen I have come to believe that he a relatively solid, but not super good player. I based this on the following. He was playing extremely tight, which is wise in a ten-handed game, but he was also paying zero attention to the action when he was not in a hand. As I said before, he was watching Game of Thrones.

    Second, like Bart always says, pre-flop is an often overlooked street in hand reading, and I think the pre-flop action has a lot to do with why I decided to fold. To add some extra detail, I looked at my notes and I was UTG, which means he was UTG+1. Now, when I raise I really don't except a guy right to my left, who is very tight, to call with hands like A9 or K9. I agree he might call with 89 and T9 suited (but not unsited) and of course he will call with any pocket pair, based on stack depth. I doubt he would just flat with Kings, as most people don't, and like I said he seems to be solid enough to know that Kings is probably a hand to three-bet in this spot (especially if he is the sort of person who is a afraid to play kings against a number of opponents, as there are still 8 people left to act behind him). I think the same logic applies, with less force, to Queens. Jacks and Tens are probably flat calls. All other pocket pairs are flats. Not sure if he calls with 45 suited, probably not, but one can never be sure.

    So when we get to the flop, I think he may very well raise Kings or Queens, but I sort of doubt he has them for the reasons just discussed. He may raise tens through jacks, but I think he does that less than half the time. And I think, as a relatively solid player he probably knows enough to fast play two-payer plus on a dry flop when my actions announce that I have an over pair. Since most people at this level don't fold over pairs, its best to fast play (most of the time). This is a line of reasoning I think my villain is likely to follow. I really doubt that he is going to raise 89 or T9, because that seems suicidal and I doubt he has any other 9x for the reasons I noted in the pre-flop section.

    All that being said, I agree there is some merit to calling, given that the pot is 225 and it is 75 for me to call. So even accepting my numbers, I have the equity against his range to call, but I am only likely to see two cards (and get to show down) a small fraction of the time because I expect he is going to keep betting, so I am not really sure the current pot odds mean very much. Same goes for my chance to improve. I only have a 2 outer (and slightly more outs to counterfeit a two pair, but everyone seems to agree that is not a very likely holding for him). So that is the logic to folding, flawed or not.

    Based on the above, I don't really see any case for three-betting here. That seems like it would folded out all 9x, as well as probably some Tens and Jacks, but not Queens or Kings, and of course all the sets and two pairs are staying around. I just don't see how you are good more often than not with a bet there (even including fold equity).

    With regards to the suggestions that I may have been playing super tight to book a win, that is certainly possible, but I was very comfortable taking someone for three streets with an over pair that was weaker (Kings) when his repeated snap calling lead me to think he had top pair / a weaker over pair. So I don't think I was afraid of a big stack battle, just didn't seem like the best time to be fighting one.

    Thanks for reading, and I appreciate your thoughts.
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