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What to do OTR 2/5

FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,298Subscriber
Saw this hand go down the other day while I was waiting for a table.

Hero and V are both solid good players. I know hero's hand because the hand went to SD.

Eff stacks ~$600

4 limps, Hero raises in the SB A A $35, 3 folds, V calls.

POT $85 -- FLOP T 8 3 - Hero checks, V bets $40, Hero calls
POT $165 -- TURN 3 - Hero bets $100, V looks at hero's stack takes ~20s, calls.
POT $385 -- RIVER 5 - Hero checks, V takes 5s announces all in for $425, hero takes 20s and calls.

What is V's hand?
Is hero's call correct?

Comments

  • beauregard Posts: 1,592Subscriber
    V has more busted draws in his range than made hands.... (probably what Hero was thinking)
    On the flop - V's 1/2 pot bet is more likely a draw than a made hand.
    I'd expect if V flopped a set, for him to raise the turn for value.

    V's ranged is really capped at TX and draws... like J9, 97 and maybe QJ or KQ.
    If any of those hands were suited to the I would expect more fireworks on the turn.

    With Hero holding the A - it's less likely that V is on the flush draw.
    I'd expect to see V holding TX, 97, J9 or 33 (for quads).

    I think V beats more hands than he loses to... so I would deem hero's call "correct."
  • neverlearn2 Posts: 2,827Subscriber
    Such a weird line. From villain standpoint I'm shoving a lot of rivers bluffs and values. Cause I think hero looks capped at maybe JJ here but to me JJ=AA

    With his weird line I think he might have induced and think without further reads or history it's a call.
  • nopair Posts: 350Subscriber
    Hopefully V has a flush and punishes Hero for his weird play.
  • pokertime Posts: 2,180Subscriber
    Given heroes line then yes calling is correct as he induced all of that but I hopes he loses so he never takes a wacko line like that again.......unless he had the best hand on the river and gets worse to shove of course.
  • Rysher8 Posts: 234Subscriber
    None of this makes sense to me. Would V really call a $100 donk bet on the turn with a straight draw on a paired board which has two of one suit? It feels more like he has a flush draw or a made hand, which on the river makes sense as a boat. You say that you got to see the Hero's hand at showdown, which makes me think he won, but I think this is a fold.
  • DrSpace Posts: 716Subscriber
    edited May 2017
    vs most people this is a snap fold with AA as you will find the TT,88 even though they limped. This is announced as good solid players so where is the V limping from? With this line villain is not repping very much as mostly Ax ♠️ plays this way and hero has the A ♠️ . Quad 3333 def a possibility. Still looks like value because villain knows Hero is uncapped or should.
  • neverlearn2 Posts: 2,827Subscriber
    Once hero checks river we should be capped to 1 pair hands right? If That the case doesn't his shove look like its more geared for a bluff then value ?
  • AJoff Posts: 546Subscriber
    pokertime said:
    as he induced all of that
    All of what? He already narrowed the villain's range by leading the turn. The villain would have to float the turn (after bluffing flop) to end up with a bluff.

    All of this is sort of a moot point because hero's lead on the turn makes no sense. If he thinks the villain is bluffing, he should check/call the turn. If the villain has merged value and hero is afraid he will check back the turn then he should check/raise the flop. If the villain can't be trusted to bet, just cbet.
  • pokertime Posts: 2,180Subscriber
    AJoff said:
    pokertime said:
    as he induced all of that
    All of what? He already narrowed the villain's range by leading the turn. The villain would have to float the turn (after bluffing flop) to end up with a bluff.

    All of this is sort of a moot point because hero's lead on the turn makes no sense. If he thinks the villain is bluffing, he should check/call the turn. If the villain has merged value and hero is afraid he will check back the turn then he should check/raise the flop. If the villain can't be trusted to bet, just cbet.
    I'm saying we played our hand deceptive OTF so V may not be putting us on a strong hand and even think we are bluffing a whiffed AK. So it's not hard for V to be overplaying his hand. V limp called PF so he can have a 3 or a flush here as well.
  • Krista Posts: 166Subscriber
    What position did villain limp?

    I think this hand is a fold unless you have some evidence that villain is capable of bluff shoving river. Most 2-5 players will not bluff shove river. There is really no value hand that AA beats. For me, against a random opponent, AA is a fold but against some particular villains it is a call AP because it induced a bluff.
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,298Subscriber
    edited May 2017
    I thought this was an interesting hand.

    What value hands does the V have?

    What bluff hands does the V have?

    Then weigh it against the roughly 2:1 the Hero is getting. How often do we have to call?
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,298Subscriber
    Krista said:
    What position did villain limp?
    Button... So in general if I had to speculate TT is the only hand not in his limping range that can be excluded on that board.

  • beauregard Posts: 1,592Subscriber
    edited June 2017
    value: 88 (3 combos), 33 (1 combo), J 9, 9 7, Q J, K Q, 4 3, 4 3, Q 9
    total: 11 combos

    bluffs: 99 (2 combos), 77 (2 combos), ATs (3 combos), J9s (3 combos), 97s (3 combos), QJs (3 combos), Q9 (3 combos)
    total: 19 combos


    but more interesting is what Hero should be calling with:

    Hero has to call with a % of hands to prevent V from auto profiting...
    S = 425/385 = 1.1
    Call = S/ (1+S) = 52% of hands that beat a bluff

    hero's value hands (in descending order of strength)
    33
    TT (3 combos)
    88 (3 combos)
    A K
    A Q
    A J
    A 4
    A 3
    A 2
    K Q
    A 3
    AA (4 combos)
    KK (4 combos)
    QQ (4 combos)
    JJ (4 combos)

    Hero has 31 total value combos on the river from his UTG SB opening range

    31 * .52 = 16-ish combos

    so Hero has to call with his top 16 combos to make this call "correct"

    so if I did this correctly...
    AA lies in that "top 16"... so his call is technically "correct" and Hero is unexploitable
  • MonadPrimeMonadPrime Posts: 803Member
    edited June 2017
    beauregard said:
    value: 88 (3 combos), 33 (1 combo), J 9, 9 7, Q J, K Q, 4 3, 4 3, Q 9
    total: 11 combos

    bluffs: 99 (2 combos), 77 (2 combos), ATs (3 combos), J9s (3 combos), 97s (3 combos), QJs (3 combos), Q9 (3 combos)
    total: 19 combos


    but more interesting is what Hero should be calling with:

    Hero has to call with a % of hands to prevent V from auto profiting...
    S = 425/385 = 1.1
    Call = S/ (1+S) = 52% of hands that beat a bluff

    hero's value hands (in descending order of strength)
    33
    TT (3 combos)
    88 (3 combos)
    A K
    A Q
    A J
    A 4
    A 3
    A 2
    K Q
    A 3
    AA (4 combos)
    KK (4 combos)
    QQ (4 combos)
    JJ (4 combos)

    Hero has 31 total value combos on the river from his UTG opening range

    31 * .52 = 16-ish combos

    so Hero has to call with his top 16 combos to make this call "correct"

    so if I did this correctly...
    AA lies in that "top 16"... so his call is technically "correct" and Hero is unexploitable
    I would weight villains value hands & bluffs a bit differently, but this analysis seems sound.

    For the record I hate Hero's donk bet OTT
  • beauregard Posts: 1,592Subscriber
    edited June 2017
    T9 & 89 may also be in V's bluffing range... none of which have FD potential.

    Also... not sure Hero would have KQs, 88 or 33 in his SB pfr range... but the results are probably the same...
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,298Subscriber
    When I saw the hand and saw the Hero lead the turn I knew what he had probably AA or KK. He has an overpair and was trying to get value from an aggressive player without being forced into a difficult spot on the flop. V's hand was wide open when he called.

    Interesting to note that if the V always shoves his made hands and bluff hands on the river balanced, 2 value for 1 bluff combining this with the range I realized it doesn't make a difference in Hero's calling frequency.
  • MonadPrimeMonadPrime Posts: 803Member
    edited June 2017
    Fuzzypup said:
    When I saw the hand and saw the Hero lead the turn I knew what he had probably AA or KK. He has an overpair and was trying to get value from an aggressive player without being forced into a difficult spot on the flop. V's hand was wide open when he called.

    Interesting to note that if the V always shoves his made hands and bluff hands on the river balanced, 2 value for 1 bluff combining this with the range I realized it doesn't make a difference in Hero's calling frequency.
    That's why the turn lead (i.e. blocker-bet) is so exploitable -- it literally turns the hand face up to a good player (clearly you could tell it was JJ+) & I don't like gifting them an opportunity to raise me off my hand now or on scary river cards. Facing a turn raise is way worse than facing a flop raise, so not sure what Hero's plan is accomplishing vs. an aggressive solid hand reader. But I digress.
  • beauregard Posts: 1,592Subscriber
    Fuzzypup said:
    When I saw the hand and saw the Hero lead the turn I knew what he had probably AA or KK. He has an overpair and was trying to get value from an aggressive player without being forced into a difficult spot on the flop. V's hand was wide open when he called.

    Interesting to note that if the V always shoves his made hands and bluff hands on the river balanced, 2 value for 1 bluff combining this with the range I realized it doesn't make a difference in Hero's calling frequency.
    so did V show or muck?
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,298Subscriber
    No. He mucked. But I had to assume it was a hand in the range J 9 or the like.
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