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Flopped 2 pair, flush comes in on River

Have been sitting at a 1/3 game with a $300 stack for about 45 min. Have a pretty good, aggressive image however I did just lose a big pot to what appeared to be the table captain with a K high flush to an A high flush. The follow hand occurs less than an orbit later.

I have never played with the primary villain in the hand before. He is an African American man in his late 40s or early 50s with $240 behind. I just learned that he has already dumped over 1k to the previously mentioned table captain during the course of the day, he seems desperate to get even. My only other reads at this point is that he is loose, definitely gambles, somewhat passive but didn't seem afraid to put in a raise or push the action occasionally. The other villain in the hand is an ex-dealer at the casino, good guy who knows the game, but definitely a rec player. He also has about $250 behind.

Action is folded to me on the CU with AKo. I open to $10. The primary villain calls on the button, and the ex-dealer calls in the BB.

Flop comes: A K J

BB checks, I c-bet $20 into $30. Both players call.

T comes: 2

BB checks, I bet $75 into $90. Both players call.

R comes another club, for a final board of A K J 2 8

BB checks, I check, Button shoves for his remaining $135 making the pot a total of $450. BB folds and it's back on me. Call the shove or throw it in the muck?

Comments

  • TastesLikeBurning Posts: 429SubscriberProfessional
    He's moving in on the river into two players who have both shown interest in the pot. We likely would have heard from him if he had a set or AJ before the river. The only question is: can/will he turn AQ/KQ/AT/QJ into a bluff here. It's not likely in my opinion as you've described him as generally passive. I'm guessing he's not capable of pulling a blocker bluff (BTW, did you have the K in your hand?).

    Getting 3.3-1, we need 23% equity. IMO it's not likely he's got a ton of pair + SDs that he's turning into bluffs - most players at low limits are going to showdown. Since he's got almost no airball bluffs and tons of flush draws in his range, I sigh fold even getting a good price.
  • MonadPrimeMonadPrime Posts: 803Member
    The fact he only has a half pot bet otr is what makes this tough -- aside from that a fold seems correct. He's likely checking his pair + draws & weaker Ax on this river. AJ/KK also seem unlikely to shove, though not impossible.
  • BurningRiver Posts: 15Subscriber
    edited May 2017
    Yeah, it probably is a sigh fold. Unfortunately, I sigh called. He shows Q 7

    Not sure if the big cooler I got before this hand affected my thought process here but I just couldn't find the fold given the good price. I rationalized it at the time, telling myself that maybe he does turn his busted straight draws into bluffs 20-25% of the time. However given the fact that you would think he only has busted draws that contain showdown value, I now think this player probably does just check back almost 100% of the time.
  • MonadPrimeMonadPrime Posts: 803Member
    BurningRiver said:
    Yeah, it probably is a sigh fold. Unfortunately, I sigh called. He shows Q 7

    Not sure if the big cooler I got before this hand affected my thought process here but I just couldn't find the fold given the good price. I rationalized it at the time, telling myself that maybe he does turn his busted straight draws into bluffs 20-25% of the time. However given the fact that you would think he only has busted draws that contain showdown value, I now think this player probably does just check back almost 100% of the time.
    For a half-pot bet I think the call is OK, though marginal (i.e. I lean toward a fold), & you shouldn't beat yourself up about it. If we're facing something close to a PSB I think it's a clear fold though.
  • Rocketman74Rocketman74 Posts: 451Subscriber
    River is a fold as a rec player is never turning a hand with any SDV into a bluff OTR (he's c/praying.)
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