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1/2 -- Bluff Catch Spot w/ QQ

MonadPrimeMonadPrime Posts: 803Member
edited June 2017 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Pretty much readless on villain. Seems loose, not sure about aggression frequencies. Just thought that his flop check in position + wet texture + my very weak line + blockers makes this a call in theory, but IDK in practice readless @ 1/2. Were about 150BB effective. Thanks.

Hero: QcQs

Two limps, Hero (CO) raises to $14, Villain (BTN) calls, all fold

Flop ($35): Ah Kh Ts

Hero checks, Villain checks

Turn: 7c

Hero checks, Villain bets $16, Hero calls

River ($77): 2c

Hero checks, Villain bets $35, Hero calls

Comments

  • nopair Posts: 350Subscriber
    Fold their turn. Any value you get here is purely via "kindness of strangers" donking from your opponent.

    Lose $14 with QQ when it flops AK. Next hand.
  • neverlearn2 Posts: 2,804Subscriber
    In these spots I almost always lead here cause I like to keep the top of my range high.

    As played I probably fold.
  • MonadPrimeMonadPrime Posts: 803Member
    edited June 2017
    NEVERLEARN2 said:
    In these spots I almost always lead here cause I like to keep the top of my range high.

    As played I probably fold.
    You C-Bet you mean, or lead turn?
    nopair said:
    Fold their turn. Any value you get here is purely via "kindness of strangers" donking from your opponent.

    Lose $14 with QQ when it flops AK. Next hand.
    I think check/folding flop is the obvious play. Not sure it's so obvious when I check twice on a brick turn -- something like J9/98/JT/QT stab here after I check twice, and we have to cap/discount villain's range somewhat because many Ax bet here "for protection" on the flop, and almost no two-pair or better checks back for same reasons, though this could certainly be at least half of his Ax combos going for delayed 2-street value on good run-outs. But yeah maybe my call on the river was optimistic cause we can't give an unknown 100% of his turn semi-bluff combos if he bets river.
  • Rysher8 Posts: 234Subscriber
    This is interesting. A lot of players won't check back an Ace when they hit, and while they would certainly bet a hand like KQ on the turn, the vast majority will be happy to check back on the river. I think this is a fold on the turn, but once you call and he bets again, his range becomes more polarized.

    I wish we had more history with this villain, because it's really his likelihood to check back an ace on the flop that's in question here.
  • MonadPrimeMonadPrime Posts: 803Member
    Rysher8 said:
    This is interesting. A lot of players won't check back an Ace when they hit, and while they would certainly bet a hand like KQ on the turn, the vast majority will be happy to check back on the river. I think this is a fold on the turn, but once you call and he bets again, his range becomes more polarized.

    I wish we had more history with this villain, because it's really his likelihood to check back an ace on the flop that's in question here.
    That's why I discounted a typical Ax range by 50% in this scenario -- we're not sure, so we might as well split the difference. I give a typical 1/2 unknown in my region about a 40-50% VPIP, so he has something like 100 Ax combos, and if we discount that down it becomes about 50 that he checks flop/bets turn with. If we add in like 5-10 2-pair+ hands, that's 60 we're behind that bet turn + river. The question is how many of his J9/98/86s (36) does villain bluff with on the river? Again, we probably have to discount this by half or so, so its like 18/78 = 23%. So getting 3:1 this is slightly -EV readless if I had to guess, and profitable if we know villain to be an aggressive 2-barrel & bluffer on busted draws.
  • neverlearn2 Posts: 2,804Subscriber
    I mean lead flop here after we 3! Pre.
  • MonadPrimeMonadPrime Posts: 803Member
    edited June 2017
    NEVERLEARN2 said:
    I mean lead flop here after we 3! Pre.
    Might be right to CB, but I didn't 3! pre.
  • neverlearn2 Posts: 2,804Subscriber
    Sorry thought it was a small raise. Either way you are the preflop aggressor and I would continue to lead. He limped called. Obv or range beats his.

    He just doesn't have Ax here. Lots of Kx and Jx hands as well for pairs and gutters that can call. Even T9.

    Obv villain dependent but I'm leading here a lot. If we check call I feel we are just guessing eat of hand plus gives us less credibility to rep an A so more likely to get called down with Kx.
  • Rocketman74Rocketman74 Posts: 451Subscriber
    I don't mind the check OTF.

    Check-calling the turn is fine as well as the villain could be getting a little stabby after you've checked twice.

    Without any reads, I'd say the river his a fold. Not having a helps as well as your queens blocking his straights but it is $1/$2 and most people's honesty tends to go way up OTR.
  • MonadPrimeMonadPrime Posts: 803Member
    Spoiler:
    Villain had QJ
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