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$5/$10 - Flopped Middle Set in 3B Pot, Face Overbet OTR

Rocketman74Rocketman74 Posts: 451Subscriber
edited June 2017 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Villain is a big winner in the game. Some people consider him a 'fish on a heater' but what he gives away in EV pre and OTF, he often makes up by getting ridiculous action with his big hands. He is very aware of his image and uses it well. I'd say his turn and river value-to-bluff ranges are more balanced than most people's and he is a fan of overbets (with an appropriate amount of nuts-to-medium strength-to-air in his range.) He also has a healthy disrespect for money.

Hero has a winning image (today and in general.) He'd be thought of as a nit by our villain's standards but most people would consider him fairly aggressive with a penchant to 3B more than most. He has to tighten up a little in this line up as our villain is two to his left but in this hand he has position.

9 Handed
$5/$10 - $3.5K eff.

Hero opens to $30 in the CO w/T T, BTN folds, Villain (SB) raises $125, BB folds, Hero calls

Flop: J T 4

$260 (2 Players) Villain checks, Hero bets $150, Villain calls

Turn: 6

$560 (2 Players) Villain checks, Hero bets $225, Villain calls

River: 4

$1,010 (2 Players) Villain goes all in for ~$3K, Hero?

Villain paused for about 10-15 seconds before making the bet (which is pretty much standard for him before any play) and after he shoved, he was focused on the board while slowly shuffling his chips (which again is standard.)

Villain is very capable of huge bluffs as well as huge value bets but this is 3x the pot!!! What are his bluffs? Can he do this with AA or KK? I mean would you c/c, c/c, overbet jam with those hands? <- What would he expect to get called by? QQ? JT? I mean... he could have a sticky 4 that he thinks just made gin.
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Comments

  • AJoff Posts: 546Subscriber
    edited June 2017
    His 3bet is fairly large, but I don't hate a 4 bet here against an agro villain (obv not recommending this play vs a random or even a good tag). As played I can't fold river. This bet doesn't make a ton of sense. I guess he is repping A4s, 54s. I don't think it is impossible he has JJ or 44, but I would try to play this somewhat balanced. You're going to get to the river with Jx (including JT), 44, TT, maybe some JJ (again I would advocate a 4!), and straight draws. You can't only call with quads, TT has to be a call.

    He has bluffs. If he is any good he checked/called the flop with weak Jx, Tx, AK, and pocket pairs if he is 3! merged.

    Also: if you are a player that bets range when checked to on the flop (I.e. TX and all the pocket pairs between T and 4). This is a snap call.
  • Rocketman74Rocketman74 Posts: 451Subscriber
    edited June 2017
    AJoff said:
    His 3bet is fairly large, but I don't hate a 4 bet here against an agro villain
    I'd like to discuss a 4B more as I did consider it but quickly dismissed the idea. The rest of your analysis is excellent (but that's not to say the 4B suggestion isn't good as well :lol:)
  • AJoff Posts: 546Subscriber
    So all the cool kids are 3betting merged against late position openers. TT does well against that range, but even getting folds from hands like Axs and KQ are huge wins for you. It's less of a slam dunk if he is polar, but if he is as wide as you say it's still +EV. Equities run close enough pre that getting a bunch of fold if you bump it up to like 325 is a fine result. The obv issue is facing a 5! that isn't a shove (if he shoves you can fold pretty easily), but it's not continuing with TT when you don't hit a set (especially if there overcards) is fun either.
  • nopair Posts: 350Subscriber
    Instacall. And I do mean instacall. Dreamcrush him as best you can, and if he wins, he could have gotten your chips anyway playing less weirdly.

    "but what he gives away in EV pre"

    He has a 4.
  • MonadPrimeMonadPrime Posts: 803Member
    edited June 2017
    Pretty gross. He has 3 combos of JJ. Its next to impossible for him to have a A4s/54s after 3! pre and x/c two streets. If he's a light 3-bettor I think 66 is definitely in his range, but so is 44, so between JJ/44/66 were close enough to 40-45% equity getting 1.4:1, and if you add in some random "fudge factor" our equity is likely slightly better & its probably an unavoidable cooler. Call, but its actually shockingly close because of the overbet.

    4! is an option for thin value but so is just flatting & keeping in the weaker parts of his range, etc. Honestly TT doesn't play great in either spot so I usually opt for the call, especially w/ position, maybe 4! more OOP.
  • Letmewin1 Posts: 1,238Member
    Villain probably thinks that a bigger chunk of hero's range is/was betting for protection and that range can't stand that type of pressure because V believes that the stronger part of hero's range would have taken a different line pre and maybe even post and if he even blocks a little inch of hero's value range then he'd be shoving a ton here.

    I think middle boat is good enough to call here.
  • iamallin Posts: 1,173SubscriberProfessional
    Slip in a couple of extra 500s in your stack as you snap call. If he shows you the jj or 44, pull them back. Gotta be swift with the chips here. No hesitation.
  • Letmewin1 Posts: 1,238Member
    edited June 2017
    iamallin said:
    Slip in a couple of extra 500s in your stack as you snap call. If he shows you the jj or 44, pull them back. Gotta be swift with the chips here. No hesitation.
    This is frowned upon even when you're trying to make a funny, your usual" .... "would have been better in this spot.

  • sivaddivad Posts: 339Subscriber
    Please call... He could easily be overplaying / thinking he is trapping you with his AA. I have seen this from this type of player before.
  • Rocketman74Rocketman74 Posts: 451Subscriber
    Spoiler:
    I called but I'm not ready to give the result as it doesn't actually matter and will possibly taint the responses (which have been very good btw.)
  • eyehaityou Posts: 289Member
    No one is folding
  • Rocketman74Rocketman74 Posts: 451Subscriber
    eyehaityou said:
    No one is folding
    thx

  • Rocketman74Rocketman74 Posts: 451Subscriber
    edited June 2017
    Rocketman74 said:
    thx
    While you may be right (although some people did think it was close) it's always nice to get objective analysis.

    It was a 3x river shove, after two check-calls, 350bb deep so unlike some others here, I didn't snap (because you have to be good ~75% of the time.)

    Spoiler:
    He said, "You're good." looked at his hand one more time and mucked. I did not show.
  • stayinschool Posts: 2,969Subscriber
    I'm sorry but why is this a post haha.

    We can never, ever, ever, EVER fold here. Not even close
  • Rocketman74Rocketman74 Posts: 451Subscriber
    stayinschool said:
    I'm sorry but why is this a post haha.

    We can never, ever, ever, EVER fold here. Not even close
    You encounter a lot of 3x river shoves sir?
  • stayinschool Posts: 2,969Subscriber
    Rocketman74 said:
    stayinschool said:
    I'm sorry but why is this a post haha.

    We can never, ever, ever, EVER fold here. Not even close
    You encounter a lot of 3x river shoves sir?
    A fair amount actually, either way i don't see how thats relevant. I mean the river even paired the 4 so QQ-AA might just think they are the nuts, this is a snap. Even forgetting balance and how insanely high you are in your range. This is still a snap due to all the QQ-AA and possible bluffs.
  • stayinschool Posts: 2,969Subscriber
    BTW I think a lot of live players waste so much time studying spots like this because they are big spots and it's fun to try and make sick hero folds. However, time studying would be much better spent just improving fundamentals.
  • Rocketman74Rocketman74 Posts: 451Subscriber
    stayinschool said:
    BTW I think a lot of live players waste so much time studying spots like this because they are big spots and it's fun to try and make sick hero folds. However, time studying would be much better spent just improving fundamentals.
    Bang Bang

    GL
  • Rocketman74Rocketman74 Posts: 451Subscriber
    edited June 2017
    stayinschool said:

    A fair amount actually, either way i don't see how thats relevant. I mean the river even paired the 4 so QQ-AA might just think they are the nuts, this is a snap. Even forgetting balance and how insanely high you are in your range. This is still a snap due to all the QQ-AA and possible bluffs.
    So the river pairs the board and now a villain is gonna shove QQ for 3x the pot after check-calling two streets? Of course, what an idiot I am.

    Sorry I didn't snap but it was an unusually large bet (despite all your experiences with such things.) This villain had a better chance of having a 4 than QQ. As it turned out he probably had a hand like 98s or KQ.

    I've taken up enough of the forum's time.
  • stayinschool Posts: 2,969Subscriber
    I do think that one thing to take away from this spot is that is a decent spot to work in some overbets as the 3 better, especially if you thing V raises TT OTF. You really can't be beat. I may not go 3x pot but 1.5x, 2x pot seems good
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