$2/5 $825 eff
Friday night, hero has his best whale impersonation on, drinking a glass of wine, being talkative and loud.
V is an unknown been at the table for an hour or so, 30s white guy. Skews tight, doesn't seem to be the type to get out of line. Has shown down a couple of winners and has check folded a bunch after buying in for $800.
Weak/loose/passive MAWG limps UTG
Villain opens to $25 from UTG+2
Two field callers
Hero 3! to $110 with Q♣
Folds to villain who tank calls, field callers fold.
Range for villain is 99-JJ, AK, possibly a couple combos of AA/KK but I'm assuming he 4-bets those a majority of the time. Not sure if he's opening/calling pre with smaller pocket pairs and suited connectors. He seemed competent so I was thinking those were unlikely parts of his range.
Flop ($270) 8♠
Hero bets $165, villain calls after taking about 10 seconds.
At this point my range for him is 99-JJ. Given the draw-heavy nature of the flop he'd raise any of the AA/KK combos in his range, flat his overpairs, and fold all but A♠
Turn ($600) 8♠
I took a while and moved in, which in retrospect is a HUGE error. I fold everything that I beat and only get called by better. Drinking wine and making critical decisions in big pots is a leak of mine. I think the proper line is check turn, and evaluate. He's most likely checking back pairs AND betting AK +.
If he checks turn I can bet river super small like $175-200 and fold to a shove (even getting a great price). FWIW villain snap folded JJ face up which shows my range for him was accurate.