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1-3 Turned 2nd nut flush as aggressor facing all in raise

MarylandOMC Posts: 51Subscriber
edited June 2017 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Hero 55 white guy. Tight aggressive image. Villian early 30's white guy has been playing tight, probably somewhat of a grinder at this level, although maybe just a reg rec.

440 effective

Villian raises to 10 in late mp, 3 callers, hero calls in bb with k j.

Flop. 10d 5c 2d Pot 50

Sb checks, I check, villian bets 22. Folds back to hero who checkraises to 60. Villains thinks for a while and calls.

Turn 6d Pot 170

Hero thinks for a while then bets 75. Villian thinks for a while then goes all in for 295 more.

Hero?
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Comments

  • neverlearn2 Posts: 2,827Subscriber
    I don't know how we don't call here. I get we are behind a ton of flushes and obv FH but we are assuming villain doesn't shove flop with a set? I think we can call and see enough medium flushes 9-8-7-6-5-3-Q A all left so lots of combos beaides Add

    I wouldn't be happy with r though. If someone can show me this is a fold then pelasedo
  • MarylandOMC Posts: 51Subscriber
    I apologize I posted the turn wrong. I have edited to reflect the correct card.
  • neverlearn2 Posts: 2,827Subscriber
    I guess we can do all the combo work and really Narrow this down. I'm sure if we go strictly with the math there and give villain a tight range though it might actually be a fold cause we not seeing Q2dd but can see any Axdd.

    Still think he has enough non A draws here but this is actually close. Also villain description has a lot to do with it.
  • neverlearn2 Posts: 2,827Subscriber
    Might be a fold more when we look at bigger picture.
  • Rocketman74Rocketman74 Posts: 451Subscriber
    edited June 2017
    Your hand blocks a lot of his nut flushes (but not all of them obviously.) Your hand also blocks a lot of the reasonable flushes he could have (as does the turn and the T) and it would be a strange way to play a set. You've got to be good ~35% so you have to decide if has Q 9, Q 8 (?), 9 8, 8 7 or 9 7 or he has A X (of which there are at least 5 - as A Q may have played faster.)

    I think it's a fold because most grinder types are just gonna call you down with a lot of non-nut flushes (but it's close)
  • MonadPrimeMonadPrime Posts: 803Member
    I'm stacking off. He has what, AQ/AT/A9dd that beat us...and he has like TT/55/22, 66 sometimes, 98dd/87dd sometimes. So on the whole were probably good. We're at a stack size/SPR where I expect shoves from that entire range.
  • stayinschool Posts: 2,969Subscriber
    Hard to make a flush, gotta get the money in. Sometimes you just get stacked
  • luckylouieluckylouie Posts: 42Subscriber
    edited June 2017
    170+ 75+75 +295= 620/295= 2.1
    So only need to pull 32 % equity against his range to be breakeven, anything over is profit.

    At a glance without pulling out my laptop, my gut says this is a profitable call. In a live setting, I'm calling. I think we are definitely pulling 32%. Will update later with what I come up with on the laptop.
  • Rocketman74Rocketman74 Posts: 451Subscriber
    If you give him sets, aces with a and all the flushes it's a snap.

    If you remove the sets, the aces with a and half the non-nut flushes it's a fold.

    He obviously lies somewhere in the middle.

    Playing a set this way makes little sense (but I guess it's possible.) The same goes for A× A. Also, at least half the time these type of villains are just calling you down with their non-nut flushes.

    Can't be faulted either way... I lean towards a fold (as stated above)
  • MarylandOMC Posts: 51Subscriber
    Thanks for the feedback everyone.

    Spoiler:
    As many of you did, I saw it as a close decision. But, with the amount of equity and the possibility the villian wouldn't expect to see an old man check raising a flush draw on the flop, so therefore might have thought he had me trapped, I decided to call. He tabled Ad 3d.
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