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1/3 AKs flush on the River when the board pairs

All players are unknown to me. V is utg +1 and has me covered, about 300 eff stacks. I have a tight neutral image.
2 limpers utg+1 and MP, I raise to 15 on the BU with A K , both limpers call.

Flop is 568 :r: with the 6 . Both players check to me and I decide to check behind.

Turn is the Q both players check to me again. So now I think ths is a good spot für me to bet, I can represent the Q as the PFR and I have the NFD+ 2 overcards. I bet 25 and now the V checkraises to 55...I call

River is the 5 pairing the board. Now V bets 65. I ....? Is this a good spot for a raise/fold or would you just call ?

Comments

  • zeppie Posts: 6Subscriber
    I would call. 65 in 155 is too good of a price.

    Villian could sometimes have a bluff or a worst flush or a flopped straight (or some very weirdly (over)played overpair).
    Most of the time his checkraise on the turn is indicitive of a strong hand, so villian has a lot of sets. In my opinion a raise is splashy against an unknown. A fold would be too tight
  • Rocketman74Rocketman74 Posts: 451Subscriber
    edited June 2017
    Effective stacks were $300 to start. After villain bets the river, they have ~$165 effective behind. If you min-raise and they jam, you'll be getting ~5.2-to-1 to call. That would be a super disciplined fold (and it might not even be correct.)

    Also, to say players are completely unknown to you isn't actually factual. Young or old would be a good start. Golf shirt, backwards ball cap, etc.
  • FoldingIsBoring Posts: 59Subscriber
    Older guy, about 55. On the looser side preflop, postflop tight when he get´s to the river for what I´ve seen so far.
    So you think just a call would be better here than raising because of the stacksize ?
  • Rocketman74Rocketman74 Posts: 451Subscriber
    edited June 2017
    Pokern00b said:
    So you think just a call would be better here than raising because of the stacksize ?
    I'd have to lean to a yes because if you raise you're trying to get called by a straight or a smaller flush (which in theory is good.) Problem being, this villain might overvalue a smaller flush and accidentally move you off a better hand (thus making a b/f problematic.)

    That and that you'd be receiving incredible odds.
  • neverlearn2 Posts: 2,804Subscriber
    I'm shoving it in it raising a decent size.

    A guy with a set in this type of flop will not go for a turn c/r imo. This could easily be QJss or something as well. Or maybe Q8.
    MIT has a boat so be it. I don't think we can fold or just call river
  • AJoff Posts: 546Subscriber
    Flop check is good.

    I don't mind checking the turn as you have decent showdown value. Raise multiway is fine too. When you get check/raised that small I would seriously consider 3 betting (maybe shoving)

    As played, I would shove.

  • nopair Posts: 350Subscriber
    edited June 2017
    Don't ever raise fold a situation like this. If you are unsure whether a raise or call is right on the river, just call.
    (Not saying calling is better than shoving; just saying don't minraise/fold.)
  • MonadPrimeMonadPrime Posts: 803Member
    Shove & get a call from smaller flushes & straights (even though they fold sometimes). If we were a bit deeper maybe we could tiny raise/fold.
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