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2/5 to bet, or not to bet, that is the quesion

FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,546Subscriber
2/5 Eff stacks $500
folds to Hero who raises J 8 to $15 from the CO. BUT, SB fold, weak tight BB 3bs $40, hero calls.

$80 FLOP A 8 6 - BB checks, Hero checks
$80 TURN 3 - BB bets $55, Hero raises......

Check or Bet the flop and why?

On the turn that is a large bet for this player. How much do you raise?

Comments

  • Letmewin1 Posts: 1,243Member
    edited July 2017
    Fuzz, this a pretty standard spot once you call the 3.
    Flop=standard
    Turn=Ok, I might have just called-standard- but since this is a somewhat big bet for him as per your analysis I could see some raises to around $200 but very exploitable--what bluffs do you have?
    And since it seems like he's always calling your turn raise should you have any bluffs at all or better put should you be bluffing vs this guy/gal?
    River-once I raise turn I'm jamming all non pairing non spade rivers.

  • nopair Posts: 350Subscriber
    "How much do you raise"

    Nothing. If he has a set and the board pairs, let him make a tiny bet at you. If it comes a brick let him make a bigger bet at you. If it comes a small spade, well, hope he checks and turn over.

    A raise will blow out a weak tight player with one pair and no draw. On the other hand, we should be able to get as much value on the river if it blanks.
  • pokertime Posts: 2,194Subscriber
    Flop fine. It's really WAWB and your hand is not as good as it feels at the time. Turn if we raise then I say $150. You want a call and a river jam size. I don't hate calling turn but I prefer to raise for value in case river is a killer like a spade or board pair. If we call turn and raise a blank river we may not get called however he may have a hand he wants to see a river and may crying call the right bet OTR which may or may not be AI. As always V and game dependent.
  • ClockClock Posts: 1,133Subscriber
    I'm surprised most ppl here are checking flop behind. :???:
    I'm betting pot or even overbetting maybe like ~100 to get him off QQ/KK.

    I don't see him 3bet AK/AQ and now check this flop, but if for some crazy reason he did - we're basically flipping with AK/AQ and can take a card on the turn to realize our equity.


    As played, I still think he doesn't have an Ace.
    Maybe QQ/KK with maybe w/o and just betting cause you checked.
    I'm gonna raise very small to ~125...watch his reaction and v-bet non river tiny most likely.
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,546Subscriber
    I posted this because I thought it was an interesting situation. Especially on the flop..... Villain was middle aged white guy

    I am not getting any folds from KK and QQ. Because this is live and he isn't good his 3b range is more heavily on AA/KK. I saw it like this.

    If he has AA - he might XRAI or XR so large I have to shove to realize my equity or fold. Also because I check if he bets the turn, even if he bets pot, I can still call since now his hand is way strong and I will certainly get paid.

    If he has KK/QQ - I am still behind and he isn't folding a street. Now if I check and hit I am more able to get paid off by KK with a diamond chasing also. Or better he hits a set on the turn and get 2 streets of value.

    I am 95% sure I am behind on the flop, if even slightly. In certain hands a bet here can buy you the turn. But I think in this case it makes no difference because of AA playing tricky and possibly blowing me off the hand. This is also live. So even though I can place this guys range QQ+ I heavily weigh it toward AA, then KK, then lastly QQ

    In raw combos AA (3), KK (6), QQ (6)
    In weight adjusted combos AA (2.4) 80% 3b AA, KK (4) 66% 3b KK, QQ (1) 16% 3b QQ

    I actually worked this out at the table.

    On the turn when he bet that large now I weight KK down even more. Usually if he doesn't have K he will bet 1/2 potish. If he has K he will check. So I actually weigh this very heavily on AA.

    I realize the situation about calling the turn and waiting to see if the board pairs on the river to shove. If I am 90% sure he has AA in this spot. I always put a 10% spazz factor. 7 outs kill my action, 10 outs let me fold. But then I added 12 more outs of 97 and 75 that if the board comes straighted on the river the chance that he actually folds AA here. I have made players fold sets before and they showed me. That's how I know. And yes a straight makes no sense for my range but I am not sure if he is smart enough to realize that. He also is never 3 betting me with a K X hand and the A is on the board. Now because he bet large into the flush he isn't afraid. The other factor is what if I just call and he now suspects I have the nut flush already. If he bets and I raise or shove the river will he call?

    I actually decided to shove on him. I took a good minute to work all this out. I implied a reverse donkey logic to the hand. What would a fish think I called a raise with and checked the flop, then shoved the turn with? a set or A x K ? One thing he clearly won't believe is the nut flush if I ship. I notice live more players are slowplaying.

    If this hand was this...... He has AA and I have QJ and the board is AT4K :r: and he XRed me on the turn then I think calling and shoving the non-paired river is way more appropriate. There are only 6 cards that can kill my action vs 10 cards that give him the boat. So it is weight more in his favor.

    Spoiler:
    Villian snap called with AA and my flush held. He was not happy when he saw my hand. I almost folded preflop since his hand was face up but his small raise made it profitable. I smash a huge hand a little over 5% of the time. I am getting slightly more than 20:1 to call. I can get away easily knowing what his hand is. And I have about a 5% chance of flopping a combo draw... which will get paid. He also can't put me on the hand.

  • MonadPrimeMonadPrime Posts: 803Member
    edited July 2017
    If Villain is weak tight we should be betting the flop as a semi-bluff, because we can make TT-KK fold to a two barrel & villain will rarely have AK/AQ/AA, and if we're mistaken we have alot of equity backing us up.

    As played raising to about 135 & betting smallish OTR like 150 cuz villain doesn't rate to have a strong made hand often & we want calls from bluff catchers. Yeah we want stacks but will villain play for stacks in this spot? Doubtful.
  • nopair Posts: 350Subscriber
    "Now because he bet large into the flush he isn't afraid. "

    He's betting that big because he is afraid of, and should be afraid of, small spades. In other words, if the turn was a 3♦ instead of the 3♠, he would have bet smaller.
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,546Subscriber
    nopair said:
    "Now because he bet large into the flush he isn't afraid. "

    He's betting that big because he is afraid of, and should be afraid of, small spades. In other words, if the turn was a 3♦ instead of the 3♠, he would have bet smaller.
    I think I misspoke there. He is afraid of being outdrawn but hand a strong hand.

    If he has KK no diamond he bets smaller scared of the ace or diamonds... possibly.

    I am starting to pay attention more to bad tight players and how they think. There is certainly a flawed logic to their play. Biggest flaw I see is that they never fold overpairs unless the board is 4 flush or 4 straight no matter what. So I am abusing them now like this. 2 months ago I XRAI a set vs a nit who I was 90% certain he has AA/KK. My XRAI was absurd in size compared to the pot. Way over what I should have XRAI on the turn. Player snap called with KK without a thought.

    The best approach, according to Pro NL V1, is to XR small to set up an easy river shove where "the pots too big to fold".
  • workinghard Posts: 1,573Subscriber
    Preflop, I don't feel most weak tight players are 3 betting KTs or worse. The bottom of his 3 bet range in the BB is KQs. On the flop, he's betting AK almost always I would think. If the Ace was not a spade, I could see him with Ax spades checking the flop but as played, he's betting AK almost always. I think a lot of KQ spades is leading out flop but I can him checking the flop as well. AA is also checking or betting flop. I'm ok with checking or betting the flop. If you bet the flop, you have follow up with turn and possibly river bets on blanks to get underpairs to fold out. As played on the turn, I'm playing this like he has AA. I'm raising the turn to $200 ish and shove non paired rivers.
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,546Subscriber
    One thing I have realized in the last year is that different locations play differently. Here no weak tight is EVER 3 betting (95% accuracy) without QQ+.... Even QQ are mostly calls.... Only one weak tight player 3bs AK.
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