A buddy of mine ran into a tough decision the other day with pocket 9s & is wondering how positive/negative of an EV play this was.
Game: $1/$2 NLHE
Effective stack: $400
Hero playstyle: LAG
Hero is dealt 9♠ 9♣ in the cutoff with 3 limps ahead & raises to $20. The button calls & everyone else folds so it is heads up.
Flop: K♦ 9♥ J♠
Hero then leads out for a pot sized bet of $50. The villain then raises to $159. Hero then jams all in for $330 total & the villain calls and rolls over Q♥ 10♣ . Board bricks out on the turn & river.
Question: What is the positive (or negative) EV in this situation? Since the villain has not been known to play AA or KK in a tricky manner, we can discredit those from his possible hands. This leaves combinations of AK, KQ, KJ, KT, QJ, QT, JJ, JT, etc as his possible holdings. Would you prefer to rather call & see what develops on the turn/river before getting it in, or is this one of those instances where stacking off was bound to happen?