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All in on the flop with pocket 9s

Wizard Posts: 3Member
edited July 2017 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
A buddy of mine ran into a tough decision the other day with pocket 9s & is wondering how positive/negative of an EV play this was.

Game: $1/$2 NLHE
Effective stack: $400
Hero playstyle: LAG

Hero is dealt 9 9 in the cutoff with 3 limps ahead & raises to $20. The button calls & everyone else folds so it is heads up.

Flop: K 9 J

Hero then leads out for a pot sized bet of $50. The villain then raises to $159. Hero then jams all in for $330 total & the villain calls and rolls over Q 10 . Board bricks out on the turn & river.

Question: What is the positive (or negative) EV in this situation? Since the villain has not been known to play AA or KK in a tricky manner, we can discredit those from his possible hands. This leaves combinations of AK, KQ, KJ, KT, QJ, QT, JJ, JT, etc as his possible holdings. Would you prefer to rather call & see what develops on the turn/river before getting it in, or is this one of those instances where stacking off was bound to happen?

Comments

  • MonadPrimeMonadPrime Posts: 803Member
    I would suggest running an EV calculation in Poker Stove, EquiLab, whatever, & see if getting all in vs that range is +EV or not.
    by 1Wizard
  • Wizard Posts: 3Member
    Thank you for the wonderful suggestions, MonadPrime, as I was completely unaware of EquiLab.

    EV shows 73.38% with that specific range.
    EV shows 61.53% if we narrow the range to any AK, KJ, QT, JJ.

    Thank you Monad as that pointed us towards the answer we were looking for.
  • MonadPrimeMonadPrime Posts: 803Member
    Wizard said:
    Thank you for the wonderful suggestions, as I was completely unaware of EquiLab.

    EV shows 73.38% with that specific range.
    EV shows 61.53% if we narrow the range to any AK, KJ, QT, JJ.

    Thank you Monad as that pointed us towards the answer we were looking for.
    You'll be shocked how often you'll be able to answer your own questions now :)
  • Rmikey17 Posts: 25SubscriberProfessional
    Seems standard. He has worse hands for value, and just calling that turn raise would be weird given the stack sizes. I think once he raises your PSB bet on the flop you have to just jam. Can't fold, can't call.
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