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Big Draw against flat/jam

Villain in the hand is one of the better 2/5 players, but the game broke and he is at this 1/2 table. We're about 350 effective.

Hero: Losing image, but not to Villain as he just moved. Also seen as a solid player. Myself, along with the rest of the table, has fallen victim to the super VIP, who has been running hotter than a star close to supernova.

Super VIP limps UTG+2 for $2, tighter old guy raises to $10 in CO. I catch something in Villain's reaction as he calls OTB. A small thing, but there was something there. I flat A 5 in BB (thought about 3betting, but wanted to keep Super VIP in the hand). Super VIP obliges and calls.

Flop ($41): 6 8 9
Hero checks, VIP checks, CO bets $15, BTN calls, Hero raises (???) to $65, folds to BTN who jams for $281 more.

How is the line so far? Is there any merit to flatting the flop? And then the jam seems unexpected. I felt like he'd at least minraise sets or other stronger hands, but maybe not. It's a sigh math call? Or just fold?
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Comments

  • Jesse_The_Suit Posts: 493SubscriberProfessional
    I think the raise is fine, I'd probably make it a bit smaller since I think we get the same amount of fold equity by making it 45 ad we do making it 60. The backraise all in is super-weird. I think we have such a big draw and his line is so weird that I almost feel forced to call. Then again, you aren't getting great pot odds v such a large over bet and at best you are flipping (against one pair type hands) of a little to a lot behind (against two pair/sets). Since I doubt he ever plays a club combo draw this way, which you crush, I think I'd just fold. Tough spot either way though.
  • neverlearn2 Posts: 2,862Subscriber
    i dont like the c/r on flop cause we fold out a ton of hands we beat and outdraw. id rather flat and reevaluate since a tight older guy raised pre and cbet on this flop, i dont know often he folds any hand on turn an with us being OOP, id rather take the cheap card myself. but, maximizing FE when we have this much equity isnt a bad thing either.

    once Villain jams over probably just turns into a math question at this point since we got a nut hand.
  • nopair Posts: 350Subscriber
    "tighter old guy raises to $10 in CO"
    "A♣ 5♣ in BB (thought about 3betting"

    How does that thought come into your head in this position with this hand against a tight player, and the solid player on the button? What's the point of spewing here with a hand that is a dog to any hand that calls you? Why would you ever not be happy with the cheap draw to a big hand?

    "VIP checks, CO bets $15, BTN calls, Hero raises (???) to $65,"

    Oh my... You decided to blow VIP out of the pot so you can play against Tight Player and/or Solid Player?

    "I felt like he'd at least minraise sets or other stronger hands"

    Why would you expect him to make a mistake like that? Why would he want to give flush draws and 7x hands a cheap draw?

    As played, you have to call... you took an extremely favorable situation and turned it into one where at best you are getting small pot odds (except for the rare times he has K♣Q♣).

    You could have been loving a $15 call with huge EV+ possibilities, but instead you chose a line that would be negative EV except for the possibility the button might have a flush draw.
  • ohsnapzbrah Posts: 632Subscriber
    I can't tell what your tone is in the prior post so I'll answer civilly.

    For the thought of a 3bet, this would be a fine spot to 3bet bluff. I have the ideal hand, with the ideal position opening. But, the VIP changes all of that. Surely you should think about every possibility before making your play.

    As for him raising, note that i said AT LEAST a minraise. Meaning he could do anything frpm clicking it back to a 4x raise. I don't expect a minraise from him on this board, I'd expect a larger one, but it is in the realm of possibility.

    Check/raising is what I'm a bit iffy on. We're getting a good price to draw. But we can't count on our outs being 12 if we call. CO flop cbet seemed weak as well. Bets like those just don't call raises. I could go either way though.
  • nopair Posts: 350Subscriber
    I don't know what you mean by tone, but there is no point talking about poker hands except civilly, especially when people disagree about what to do.

    You were presented with a super-good EV+ situation with the $15 call. In general, if you are going to turn down something super-good, you should have a really, really, really good reason to take a different line. There is nothing here that jumps out and says "Instead of the great EV+ situation you have, here is a better one."
  • ohsnapzbrah Posts: 632Subscriber
    I can probably concoct some kind of mathematical equation comparing the EV of raising vs the EV of calling. The one thing I did know with the raise is that to show an immediate profit, it only has to work less than 50% of the time.

    And the times that I'm called, they usually have a weakish hand that probably cant stand up to much more pressure. But im also getting close to 5 to 1 on a call, which also has an immediate profit.
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