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1/2 Call Insane Overbet on flop against V?

psi1122 Posts: 133Subscriber
edited July 2017 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
V1 MP : He's likes to limp a lot with a pretty wide range, and he does so in this hand. Starts with ~170

V2 CO: He's also seems to enjoy limping and limps with a pretty wide range, does some limp calling, with some limp folding as well. Seems to be a pretty weak player. Starts with about ~150

H: Button: I don't think they're paying attention to what I'm doing in all honesty. Starts with ~210

V3: SB, no history with this player, seems to be somewhat competent. Starts with ~260

V1 limps, V2 limps. H looks down at K J and raises to 10. Pretty standard imo, punish limpers.
SB calls, MP calls V2 calls.

42 Flop comes K 6 2

Mp leads out for 6, CO raises all-in for 150.
Hero?

We have TPGK, with the 3rd nut flush draw. I don't think he's making this massive overbet with the Ace/Queen high flush for sure. I think he's probably going to put in a raise with those, and not overbet shove here. I think this is most likely a set, Ace/Queen high flush draw, or maybe a small flush, in which our jack high flush draw is probably live.

I think most of his range is A X, Q X. Because he was closing the action, I think he has a lot of Ace/Queen of diamonds in his range especially a lot of those in off suit form because pot odds lol.

So if we range him at Sets, A X, Q X, and ALL T high flushes and worse, we're smoking that range with a 60:40 equity edge, even adding some Ace high and Queen high flushes, we're still don't get worse than 50-50.

Is my logic correct here or reasonable?


Comments

  • nopair Posts: 350Subscriber
    edited July 2017
    You are 11% against K♠Q♦.
    You are 30% against the small sets.
    You are 32% against flopped flushes.
    You are 45% against K6/K2.
    You are 47% against K♠Q♠.

    You are 51% against 62.
    You are 57% against A♦5♠.

    "Seems to be a pretty weak player"

    The only thing you are a real favorite (64%) over is Q♦T♠ stuff, which I'm not putting a "pretty weak player" on.

    You are crushed. Fold.

    (Added, like said below, two people still to act including original bettor. You could be up against the ace of diamonds and a set. Fold for sure.)
  • smaug81243 Posts: 20Subscriber
    I agree with nopair, it's definitely a fold. To make the situation even worse, you have no idea what the players left to act after you have. It's very possible one of them has a made hand in which you are nearly drawing dead against. Bad players will make this play with made hands quite a bit because they are scared of the 4th diamond coming and want you to fold.
  • psi1122 Posts: 133Subscriber
    edited July 2017
    I think he's far more likely to raise KQ, then to limp call KQ.

    His limp calling range is generally the weaker stuff, like the Q, T with the Queen of diamonds here. That makes much more sense for a weak player than a good player. Weak players tend do limp with all sorts of junk that they should be folding, and then they're like pot odds lol, and call the raise.

    Second, It's true he can have a lot of the things that we're not doing well against. But then why can't he have things like K T with the ten of diamonds here, or the nine of diamonds, he's much more likely to limp call those hands than KQ.








  • ohsnapzbrah Posts: 632Subscriber
    Seems to be a sigh fold. He can have some of these pair + draw hands, but he can also have sets or weak flushes. Overall we're doing pretty poor against that range. That combined with the huge overbet lends itself towards a fold.
  • psi1122 Posts: 133Subscriber
    Meh, I can see this being a fold against a player who playing a bit more snug here. This guy isn't. He's open limping range and then limp-calling while closing the action is going to be very very wide. And considering that this guy can be doing this with junk like KT with the ten of diamonds, or K9. with the nine of diamonds. Bad players will limp call with things like Ad 6h, which are things you shouldn't be doing.

    He's not doing this with solely value hand here. He's those that limp-call with a lot of weak hands. That's why we iso-raise in the first place.

    Equliabing it myself, we're doing perfectly fine against the range that he's shoving here with. Even if you make it tighter, we still don't get too worse than 50% here.

    Thanks for all of the comments and responses.
    628 x 275 - 106K
  • CycleV Posts: 1,195Subscriber
    So you posted a hand and said, What do you guys think? 3 out of 3 say fold, one gives a reasonable range and math as to why. You push back against everyone.

    Well I'm 4/4 in the fold camp. I'm not sure it's even all that close.
  • psi1122 Posts: 133Subscriber
    Sorry, If I'm coming off hostile or anything, or feisty, I'm seriously not intending for it to be that way. If anyone felt like I was being hostile or a bit rude, I apologize.

    If my arguments and thoughts are flawed. I'm honestly willing to listen. However, I'm just disagreeing here and I'm just stating my thoughts, if my tone was a bit feisty or hostile, I'm sorry for that, and I'll watch for that in the future. I think that what these forums are for discussing this. I definitely read and think about what other people write, I just have my disagreements, which I'm not saying I'm perse correct.





  • PBJTIME Posts: 345Subscriber
    5/5
  • GlennJones Posts: 173Subscriber
    From my experience at the low stakes (2/3) in L.A. - on a board like this I don't think that someone is turning something like AdX into a bluff on a King high monotone board. A bet like this is in a multiway pot is much more likely to be someone with a King trying to protect against the flush.

    You say that V2 is weak player. Does he limp call with AK? A lot of older players do. What about KQ? If this is a typical 1/2 game on a Friday/Saturday night in L.A., a lot of people will limp those hands to see a flop in a multiway pot, because to them it's all about making a hand.

    If I *only* look at a range of sets, TP hands (KT+), and two pair hands that are protecting against the flush (K6s and K2s):

    PokerCruncher-Advanced-Android V.10.1.1

    (Equity, Win, Tie)
    Player 1: 52.8% 47.1% 11.5% [KhJd]
    Player 2: 47.2% 41.4% 11.5% {66, 22, AKs, KTs+, K6s, K2s, AKo, KTo+}

    Board: [Kd 6d 2d ? ?]
    Deal To: River
    Dead Cards: {}

    Monte Carlo Simulation: 100000 trials

    Notes:

    So, if I add some baby flushes into this range that are trying to protect against someone with the Ad, then KhJd is not faring very well.

    Where I get into a lot of trouble in these spots is projecting my thought process onto my opponent. Just because *I* would raise KQ here, or because I might try to turn AdX into a bluff, it doesn't mean that they are capable. Most of my player pool is there to win hands, not win money.

    Unless this villain has shown me that he is capable of making some of those moves, I would sigh fold.

    Would raising more preflop make the hand a little easier to play? In my games, I would probably raise this to somewhere around $20 or so preflop. But that's in L.A., where the drop is going to remove $6 to $7 from the pot.
  • CycleV Posts: 1,195Subscriber
    psi1122 said:
    Sorry, If I'm coming off hostile or anything, or feisty, I'm seriously not intending for it to be that way. If anyone felt like I was being hostile or a bit rude, I apologize.

    If my arguments and thoughts are flawed. I'm honestly willing to listen. However, I'm just disagreeing here and I'm just stating my thoughts, if my tone was a bit feisty or hostile, I'm sorry for that, and I'll watch for that in the future. I think that what these forums are for discussing this. I definitely read and think about what other people write, I just have my disagreements, which I'm not saying I'm perse correct.
    OK, no worries.

    Weak players don't bomb on a draw. They protect. So take KxTd out of the equation.

    2 players left to act behind you is a bad situation. We often get squeezed, it happens, no big deal but need to recognize and pass on this spot.

    You currently don't have the nuts, far from it, and you aren't drawing to the nuts, again far from it. The phrase "3rd NFD" reminds me of every badly played PLO hand ever. (I know this is HE, but the concept applies.)

    Summary: you don't have the best hand, you aren't drawing to the best hand, and even if you make your best hand, it can be outdrawn. You're up against someone stating strength, and other someones still to speak.

    One thing you'll find on CLP as opposed to some other forums, is that we love thin value, and we love doing math. Virtually all of us, recs and pros alike, could care less about $200 (in a good way). But we're all like, nope, not a justifiable use of our chips.

    I agree with Glenn that my standard open is much more than $10, but this is very room-dependent. 5x doesn't punish anyone, it gives them a great price to call. A very basic formula is your standard open +1BB per limper, and add 1-2 if you'll be OOP. So if 10 is standard, here I'd go 15 or so. (And still expect half the world to call.)
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