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5-10 Sickish spot with combodraw

Happyluckbox Posts: 27Member
edited July 2017 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Hero lag opens Q9cc lj $40 (covers)
Tag grinder flats co ($2800)
BB tagish but occasional spazzy/aggro indian flats straddle ($2000)

3 ways $120
Jc 6s 4c
bb check
hero $70
tag grinder flats co
bb indian checkraise $250
hero calls
tag grinder calls

$870
Jc 6s 4c Ts
bb bets $560 and has about $1100 back
hero?

Mostly concerned about nfd combos that tag behind often has here. The indian has been playing tight pretty much all night, but has the capability to spazz once in a while. Honestly he looks fairly nutted here though, since hes betting into both of us ott, so I think FE vs him is very low, but FE vs tag grinder is very high, and blowing him off nfd is a huge victory. Flatting is also an option but kinda sucks cuz then were really only drawing to 6 clean outs.

Btw, at this point grinder has about $2300
behind.

Did some math, game tree evaluatiin during the hand at this point and it came out to:

A. Call for $560, needing ~7:1 for straight outs only, (which we dont have vs BB, but in the off chance tag grinder folds behind ott or otr, or possibly has a worse flush, its probably more like only needing 5:1, which we barely have vs BB? In the best case scenario, with all outs live, we only need 2:1, which we have easy.

B. Jam over both, ($2300 eff). Grinder has to
fold his nfd combos. Bb indian probably calls 95%+?
Risk is then $1660 assuming grinder folds and bb calls, to win $2530, so need about 40% equity, but with 15 outs looking at more like 32%. So jamming seems slightly minus ev, unless this is one of those times bb indian is spazzing and has some
parts of his range that fold.

C. Fold?


All options seemed kinda valid tbh. I kind of like A, because I think jamming is most likely minus ev when Bb is most likely not spazzing here and has the goods, therefore very low FE. Its not guaranteed grinder has nfd, as he can have some worse fd combos like T8cc 87cc 75cc 6xcc 75cc 75ss. Grinder can also find a fold here with some hands like possibly ambitious AJ or 75hh, 75dd after I call. So in reality, the range that grinder overcalls isnt 100% doomsday nfd, so its not that bad overall.

But it would suck running into nfd from grinder behind. Assuming we call, and grinder calls, pot will
be $2550 and with $1100 left from bb and $1760 from grinder behind, and if we hit our flush its probably all going in, and i think grinder may be good enough to fold worse flushes? So maybe B is actually more long run +ev to protect us from the potential RIO.

Or maybe since both options kind of seem meh we should go with C and nitfold oesd +fd? lulz






Comments

  • Jesse_The_Suit Posts: 493SubscriberProfessional
    I guess this isn't really the point of the hand, but why did you call the flop raise? Your draw isn't very good at all, non-nut flush plus back for stright and an over-card to top pair. When you aren't even closing the action.

    Having gotten to this spot, it seems like a pretty clear fold. The Indian dude could easily have a big hand, like Ac4c which has you drawing super thin. Bluff jamming into two people with such a bad draw seems almost suicidal, but against the right players it could work. Flop decision seems like the source of this turn tough decision though.
  • Jesse_The_Suit Posts: 493SubscriberProfessional
    Just my two cents.
  • Happyluckbox Posts: 27Member
    edited July 2017
    Flop isnt really that close at all imo. Majority of times grinder behind folds when i overcall, as his range is going to be pair heavy like weak Jx 88-77 etc. Dont really see why we would fold a flush draw+ an over and bdsd outs to a weaker player IP to a single raise. Yes its obviously looking worse when the grinder behind overcalls, but that was unlikely to occur. In this spot otf hero is often closing action when hero calls the raise.


    Now I would agree that turn is usually a
    fold but we have picked up an oesd now so i felt that complicates things a bit.


  • Jesse_The_Suit Posts: 493SubscriberProfessional
    Well, I would think that your draw isn't doing well against his range of top pair/nut flush draws. If he is a weak player in the sense that he over values hand and will fold, but I would generally think that against a taggy recreational player we have at best a flush draw and an overcast. Given that our draw could be dominated, that seems like a loose call, but I play in relatively passive 2/5 games, so that probably distorts my perspective.
  • Happyluckbox Posts: 27Member
    I really think folding the flop is pretty tight, and sure it makes decisions easier, but doesnt maximize our hourly. sometimes you gotta get put in tough spots. Chances are grinder woulda folded and this woulda been headsup IP tho. I like those odds
  • ClockClock Posts: 1,133Subscriber
    Looks like a fold. :cry:

    Flop call is fine, I think tag grinder in CO can have a lot of Jx here, so you can def call the x/r and expect him to fold those.
    After he overcalls I think Jx becomes very unlikely.
    I dunno...would he overcall a x/r with AJ?

    BB looks very nutted here, at worst it's a A 4 or maybe A x , but then what does CO have?
    The only hands you're doing really good against is 5 7 and 5 3 (would he call with that pre?)
    That's only 2 combos though and I'm not sure he follows up with such a big bet on turn with those after you both call his flop x/r.
    Sets are def in his range thought!

    Don't like Jamming for reasons you already outlined and and looks like we just don't have the odds to draw to a clean str8
    Also we not closing the action and CO may decide to jam NFD or pair +NFD and we'll be forced to fold all our EQ.
  • Jesse_The_Suit Posts: 493SubscriberProfessional
    Fair enough, it just seems like a microcosm of those LAG v. TAG arguments as to which approach is better. I usually like to play tight and try to keep the decisions more straight-forward. Which is the same reason I'd pitch the hand on the turn, it seems to likely that you are up against a bigger draw and a made hand.
  • Happyluckbox Posts: 27Member
    I generally play pretty loose agressive, I think its fairly possible the grinder can overcall AJ otf given my image and bb's spazzy repuation.
  • nopair Posts: 350Subscriber
    Easy call just playing the one guy. if the other guy calls, or even moves in, fine. Direct odds are 560 at 1430, with 1100 implied, and you got 13 cards against a set, and 10 against ace flush draw.

    Raising is spewy and counterproductive; folding is no option.
  • Jesse_The_Suit Posts: 493SubscriberProfessional
    But you only have 3 outs if one of the guys has a higher flush draw, and if you flat the reg is going to be getting a great price on his draw. Isn't that a real concern here?
  • ClockClock Posts: 1,133Subscriber
    nopair said:
    Easy call just playing the one guy. if the other guy calls, or even moves in, fine. Direct odds are 560 at 1430, with 1100 implied, and you got 13 cards against a set, and 10 against ace flush draw.

    Raising is spewy and counterproductive; folding is no option.
    First of all you don't even necessarily have 13 cards vs. a set if you're HU because some cards pair the board, but the entire point is that you're vs 2 people.
    If you're vs made hand and a dominating draw the ONLY option is to fold!

  • stayinschool Posts: 2,969Subscriber
    We have too much equity to fold either street IMO, I don't love either spot. but don't think we can do much about it.
  • Happyluckbox Posts: 27Member
    It is 13 outs vs a set. (usual is 15)
  • Happyluckbox Posts: 27Member
    edited July 2017
    Anyways Hero calls
    Grinder ships it
    and the bb fish FOLDS?!

    gg no re implied odds.
    $1760 more to win $4310
    pretty much direct 2.5:1 odds (need 29%) as i tank did the math.

    So need 29%
    Were barely +ev vs 3 combos of sets at 29.5%
    Add in ATcc and we drop to 27.5%
    But, add in one combo of 87cc and our equity goes thru the roof to like 37.6%


    u guys call
  • nopair Posts: 350Subscriber
    "First of all you don't even necessarily have 13 cards "

    Yes it is. Seven flush cards, six straight cards. (plus the 2 board pair flush cards might be good).

    Folding for the original bet is terrible. With the new action it's just a question of adding up the sets, plus the bigger flush draws and doing the math. Only the AT cuts us down to 8 cards.

    I would not have played the hand to start with utg, but without doing all the math on all the combos, this just comes down to close pot odds, so it probably doesn't matter either way if you call or fold.
  • maphacks Posts: 2,009Subscriber
    edited July 2017
    feel free to ignore this post if you're looking for some proof.

    the flop is a trivial call IMO. getting way too good of a price and would definitely be super easy to exploit if we fold hands as strong as this (even without knowning your exact cbetting strategy and not doing the math/EV sims).

    and it's definitely not an argument to say "I have a tight approach so I fold the flop". that's not tight, that's losing EV.


    turn, I don't think we can fold against most ranges. if certain assumptions were correct, such as zero implied odds OTR or villain having tons of nutfds and sets only, then we could theoretically fold. would be pretty far fetched to assume villain raises a lot of nutFDs and no combo draws. without doing any math or sims, experience would lead me towards calling ingame.

    once we call, we can't get away. seems unlikely villain ever has nutfd since there is absolutely no FE. you are up against a set almost always so pretty close call but +EV vs the range I expect him to have.



  • iamallin Posts: 1,173SubscriberProfessional
    Flop could be a fold.

    3 way pots should and will play much tighter than heads up pots. Hu you would never fold this. Of course. But no one truly knows how to play 3 way pots. The grinder behind you called so you don't have to defend as much of your betting Range to a raise.

    We should fold some flush draws on the flop if it is 3 ways. May be we can call with the q high flush draws but at least realize that it is correct to fold some low flush draws on flop.

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