2/5, 850 effective, I cover. Villain is an older Asian guy who seemed to play pretty tight. But I hadn't seem him show anything down. Don' think I have played with him before. Grinder type opens from early position to 20, Villain calls in the cut off. I three bet to 50 with pocket aces from the SB, and both of them call. Logic for the small three-bet is that, due to being card dead and not presented with any good squeeze spots this is my only three-bet in the last four hours. Don't want to loose my customers. They both call.
Flop comes out 4,6,8, rainbow. So I am first to act, and I just think of this as clear bet fold, no need to balance playing 2/5 (not for me anyway, given that I only play on the weekend). So I bet 75 into 150, grinder folds, and villain calls. So, right away I figure he probably has a smaller over pair, or maybe he is pealing with to two overs. I guess he could also have 7,5 for a flopped straight, but that seems unlikely because it was a three-bet pot. Also possible that he hit the board in some way, but I expect to hear from a set/two pair (and there shouldn't be many Two pair here because of the run out).
Turn is a nine, I don't believe it puts out any kind of back door flush draw out there. So, like not my favorite card, as nines are certainly part of his range. But still going with the bet fold plan, so I bet 175 into 300, and he calls again. Sizing probably could have been bigger, but again I am really value targeting Tens-Queens (or oddly played kings). I certainly could have (maybe should have) bet more here. He calls again.
River is a 7. So there is now a one liner out there to a five. The board is so crazy scary that I think I can get away with betting relatively large so I bet 350 into 650. He thinks for a second, and pushes all in for 545 (meaning it is 195 for me to call). So the pot is 1,545. 195 to call. So I am getting almost 8 to one. Am I ever good here, do I have the like 11% equity I need to call? Think anyone ever goes crazy with kings-queens here? Anyone ever find a folds here. Should I have bet less to leave my self an escape hatch?
So I call. Thoughts? Happy to hear about my many errors in this hand, from pre-flop three-bet sizing, to bet sizing on all streets (or even decision to bet a particular street).
Thanks a bunch.