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$5-$10 Commerce Line Check and Pot odds

BartBart Posts: 5,836AdministratorLeadPro
Just starting to get back into the swing of things after the WSOP. Late night last night at Commerce, $5-$10. Villain in the hand seems pretty bad, almost went broke and a few hours ago doubles up against me for $500 total with 77 vs KQos all in preflop. Has shown a lot of preflop aggression (like raising 30% of hands) but not so much post flop. Seems like a moderate to large losing player.

Hero has good image and opens A Q to $35 from UTG ($3400). UTG1, another rec player but ok, calls ($5000) UTG1. Folds back to V1 in BB and he calls ($1500).

($100) FLOP: Q 5 6

BB checks, Hero $65, UTG 1 calls, BB check raises to $165. Hero calls, UTG1 calls.

($595) TURN: 6 BB bets $225. Hero calls, UTG 1 folds.

($1050) RIVER: 4 BB bets $500.. Hero ??
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Comments

  • AJoff Posts: 546Subscriber
    Absent any big postflop reads, I think this is a call. You can fold AsAx, Ks,Kx, As,Qx all before this hand. My understanding of your game is you would bet QJ+ otf and three bet 55+. This seems like the best hand you could have.
  • KiLeeKiLee Posts: 252Pro
    From a theoretical perspective, this is a call 100% because this is one of the best hands that we can arrive on the river with, and we don't block any of his bluffs. If we fold this, we are exploitable and we can be abused. Having said that, if we are sure of the villain's passive postflop tendency and that he wouldn't play a flush draw like this, especially for all 3 streets and sizing, this COULD trump consideration for ranges and optimal play.
    by 1BKism
  • KiLeeKiLee Posts: 252Pro
    If the villain will be very unbalanced in his line when he takes this line, we can make a huge exploit and over-fold the river
  • KiLeeKiLee Posts: 252Pro
    If we assign the villain a value range of 66/55/65s/78s/67ss/68ss/69ss/K6ss/A6ss, then the villain needs to have at least 5 combos of bluffs in order for us to call profitably. We are getting 3:1 on our money. I think it's easy for someone to say that the villain can have 5 combos of missed spades here, but it really depends on the villain. if the villain NEVER plays FDs like this, we can flush these numbers down the toilet. With the read that Bart has, I think that this would be pretty close. I think that his line is polarized, but extremely value heavy, especially given his sizing and that he XRed and barreled every street.
    by 1BKism
  • maphacks Posts: 1,999Subscriber
    can't raise, can't fold?

    I would consider reraising flop
  • DrSpace Posts: 716Subscriber
    I lean fold with 6x ♠️ making his value range decently wide. AX ♠️ unlikely doing this enough from the described player type.
  • iamallin Posts: 1,173SubscriberProfessional
    Very easy call. Against a decent but not very good player this is a snap fold. Flush draws missed and board paired. Most decent players will not bluff here. Certify not for that half pot sizing. Only a bad player or a really good player ( someone like me basically) will attempt a bluff here. So I call.

  • stayinschool Posts: 2,969Subscriber
    Sounds like this guy is capable of bluffing so I think we should call as this is way up in our range in terms of strength and unblocking bluffs.

    It is unfortunate that 78 gets there and sounds like this type of player could easy raise flop with a range of 6x. I definitely don't love the spot but against someone that seems semi capable i think i'm gonna call.

    Fine folding against someone we have more reads on.
  • stayinschool Posts: 2,969Subscriber
    That said, seems a little unlikely that this dude is just gonna c/r 2 players, bet turn into 2 people and follow through on the river. I think this is very close but still think we call
  • Jesse_The_Suit Posts: 493SubscriberProfessional
    Yeah, without knowing more about what kind of loosing player this is, I would probably call. Though as interesting as it is, I don't think the GTO inspired range concerns should factor into our analysis of a hand like this. This dude, like 90-99% of live players, isn't paying anywhere near enough attention that we have to make calls for purposes of range protection. I think it is always important not to level ourselves into thinking our opponents are thinking, to paraphrase one of Bart's old pod casts.

    If he is bad, he might run this semi bluff line at least 1 of 4 times, so we can profitably call. A good player also might have taken this same line with like 67 of spades, which I think is what @drspace is getting at. I could certainly go either way. For I also don't see the merits of raising the river, or bet-three-betting the flop, but if Mr. Maps would elaborate on his thoughts I would like to hear them.
  • BartBart Posts: 5,836AdministratorLeadPro
    edited July 2017
    maphacks said:


    I would consider reraising flop
    Actually, this is sort of a Commerce line that's not a bad thought. If villain has a protection hand like a worse Q he will call a small three bet. He will most likely not re raise all-in unless he has a hand that beats us like a set and or bottom two. Occasionally he may four bet all-in with 15 out draws but if he has 56os, Q5 and Q6 suited in his range we are going to be toast against that range. We also drive out the guy behind us that might be on a draw.

    So as crazy as it sounds this can be a three-bet fold for value vs V1 and protection vs UTG1.
  • Jesse_The_Suit Posts: 493SubscriberProfessional
    Heh, I handn't thought of it that way. That certainly makes sense, though you need to know your player pool because I can certainly see that line blowing out every other Queen that isn't queens up against nits. But against folks who never fold top pair, it's probably an ideal line.
  • stayinschool Posts: 2,969Subscriber
    Bart said:
    maphacks said:


    I would consider reraising flop
    Actually, this is sort of a Commerce line that's not a bad thought. If villain has a protection hand like a worse Q he will call a small three bet. He will most likely not re raise all-in unless he has a hand that beats us like a set and or bottom two. Occasionally he may four bet all-in with 15 out draws but if he has 56os, Q5 and Q6 suited in his range we are going to be toast against that range. We also drive out the guy behind us that might be on a draw.

    So as crazy as it sounds this can be a three-bet fold for value vs V1 and protection vs UTG1.
    IDK LA but the downside to this seems that Qx may fold turn a fair % when we 3 bet flop, while it mostly check calls turn and river if we just call. We also loose a little value from hands that might bluff turn/river that will just fold to the flop 3 bet.

    again, i'm not sure as to how the LA games work, i'm just throwing out ideas. I'm curious as to how these games play given i'll be spending some time in LA soon ;).
  • workinghard Posts: 1,566Subscriber
    His small cr sizing leads me to discount a flopped 2 pair. 6 x makss sense and a flopped set. Also combo draws. 78 gets there. Sounds like he's passive post flop. I lean towards folding.
  • ankit Posts: 21Member
    he'd probably bet bigger on the turn against 2 other players if he had a 6 to charge the numerous draws, or bomb river with a full house; bart do you think he would overplay KQ this way, especially given the small-ish bet sizing on all streets?
  • BartBart Posts: 5,836AdministratorLeadPro
    edited July 2017
    I'm not good with these made up poker terms but I think what I am about to explain is a "range tree" having to do with bet sizing.

    FLOP

    after the check raise vs two player to $165, which is rather small sizing we can "range" him on the possible hand types:

    1. Overplayed top pair for protection-- Hands like AQ-QJ. Although you will rarely ever see a decent player take this line we still see poor ones use it all the time.

    2. Nut hands-- Depending on how loose preflop this could be hands as weak as 56os and or Q5 or Q6s completing preflop action out of the BB.

    3. Draws -- Typical bad players at Commerce tend to not be overly aggressive preflop so usually this is going to be only the largest combo draws

    Note that (3) has far fewer hand combinations then (1) or (2) and I also tend to think there is a lesser frequency of (3) due to the smallish flop sizing.

    TURN

    After the check raise gets called by two players on the FLOP the $225 is very small sizing.

    1. Very consistent with this type of holding

    2. Consistent with this type of holding, now including A 6 a draw that has turned nutish.

    3. Almost entirely discounts this type of holding due to the lack of fold equity in bet sizing


    RIVER

    Even though bet represents only 50% size of the pot $500 is a HUGE sizing in the absolute sense in a single raised pot

    1. Almost entirely discounts this category of hands. If opponent had checked would very strongly lean towards this holding.

    2. Very consistent

    3. Consistent

    ____________________

    The key for me here is the turn bet sizing with category (3). With 3 being knocked out we are left with opponents bet sizing action on the river to evaluate hand strength. A bomb, which $500 is, is almost never a protection bet, and there are many more combinations of two pair and sets than 13+ draws that have missed.

    Spoiler:
    Hero calls. BB wins with 5 6

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