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River Decision

OMGitsWorm Posts: 272SubscriberProfessional
$5/$5 Effective Stacks $700. My standard open is $25 and 1 x BB for every limped and it's common for me to still go to the flop 5 ways.

Vilian - I haven't played him to much. In his thirties and seems pretty tight passive. I don't think he would be to creative or playing a GTO style. In a hand not longer after this one he fast played a set on the flop with two to a flush.

Heaps of limpers and I raise to $40 K♣️J♥️on the button. Get called by 4 in the field and our Vilian was left to close the action in the CO.

Pot $200.
I cbet $120 and called by CO.
Flop 6 ♦️3♦️ J♥️
Pot $440
Turn A ♠️ check check
River Q♥️
CO bet $200?

So I had Vilian on possible sets 66, 33 and flush draws. FD could be 45♦️and I was thinking Ax ♦️ Flushes. May have some AJ because I don't think he would open every AJ.

I checked turn because I don't like to bluff an Ace when it comes on the turn or the river when a there is a flush draw in the board. Yes there are more Aces in my range but I feel if he has a flush draw it would include the Ace.

When Vilian bets river I was unsure how often he is betting a missed 45♦️ Flush draw because he has no show down.the bet looks like it value with that amount. I don't like calling here but is there any merit in shoving. I don't fully understand GTO and I'm not sure if this is one of those spots I should be shoving because his hand should really be a bluff, one pair and a set on the odd occasion.
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Comments

  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,442Subscriber
    Lots of his range play like this
    QJ Axd (sometimes) AJ. 33. JJ 66 AS (slowplayed). KTdd

    He has 15 CD combos you beat or less. Axdd already beats you but that's removed. He might or might not get it for $200

    Text of those combos are 24 vs 15 FDs and he bet$200 which is usually a strong its close for the price. This is where tells would do e into play and history...... In a vacuum i fold. I don't think he bombs Axdd. Unless it's Aq or Ak. So 26 combos. It's just very unlikely a tight passive bombs as a bluff. If he get $75 of an see a call. I often see people bluff get quickly a bluff like that

    He take time on his calls?
  • kaboojiekaboojie Posts: 387Subscriber
    I think you can fold here to a tight passive player. He will have a lot of Ax and Qx in his range.

    A shove might get a weak A or worse to fold. The problem is V will be getting 3.5 to 1 on a call so he probably shrugs and calls a lot that you're hoping he folds with.
  • sanox Posts: 82Subscriber
    There is a problem in the hh. Both the J in your hand and the one on your board is the J
  • QuantumSurfer Posts: 138Subscriber
    We have 3rd pair now and a passive guy is betting. Well played up to this point. Easy laydown imo as stacks are too shallow to bluff.

    Also... don't worry about GTO. It's just a way not to lose, not a way to make the most money.
  • OMGitsWorm Posts: 272SubscriberProfessional
    Fuzzypup said:
    It's just very unlikely a tight passive bombs as a bluff. If he get $75 of an see a call. I often see people bluff get quickly a bluff like that

    He take time on his calls?
    He called kinda quick on the flop

    I'm not sure what you mean in the other part of the quote?

  • OMGitsWorm Posts: 272SubscriberProfessional
    sanox said:
    There is a problem in the hh. Both the J in your hand and the one on your board is the J
    Sorry about that J♦️ Would of been mine
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