V1 ($600, recfish, UTG) limps $3,
Hero ($300, HJ) raises to $15 with K9ss,
V2 ($600, nitty-ish passive young guy, SB) calls,
V 1 calls
Flop ($48): Q87ssd
Checks to Hero, Hero bets $40, V2 calls, V1 folds
Turn ($128): 6h
V2 checks, Hero bets $115, V2 tanks, looks unsure, shows his neighbour and then calls
River ($358): Qc
V2 checks, Hero ?
Preflop: Usually fold, but we just sat down and CO/BTN were passive enough so came in for an iso vs recfish UTG.
Flop: Great flop for us, I usually go $25-30 in this spot but wanted to experiment with a slightly larger betsizing. Once V2 called, I figured he was Qx heavy, mainly AQ and some KQ/QJs, and maybe Axss. Sets are unlikely.
Turn: I was planning to take a free card OTT but the 6x was such a great card, I decided to double barrel, close to PSB to get him off all the above hands. Once called, I think he has a stubborn Q a lot. Maybe a FD+pair/sd type hand. PLANNING TO 100% SHUT DOWN if I whiff river as he's never folding much on the river for a measly $130.
River: Awful river. Expecting to face a shove. But instead, he snap checks. WTF? This doesn't make sense now. 99% players would never risk letting Qx check through OTR against a face up AA/KK. Also, I would 100% hear from sets or straights by now. He's also never showing up with random 2 pair/JJ-99/8x type hands EVER after calling ~PSBs over two streets based on my reads. This only leaves me with busted FDs. However, my hand blocks so many of those too, which leaves him with AJss, ATss, A5ss (the latter two picked up a SD OTT) and maybe even any Axss, although less likely. I'm just lost though as there's always that slight <1% chance he is trapping or is just mubsy with his Qx because I can have boats. Also, A8ss/A6ss which is 2pair might cry-call the river.
a) Should I just stick to my plan and give up as we generally should because there's almost 0 FE in these spots with a 1/3 PSB left? I don't want to look like an idiot when I check behind and V turns up with a higher busted NFD without the 6 or the 8.
b) Thoughts on flop/turn sizing?