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1/3: Change my plan to not bluff river in a $350 pot on THIS EXACT CARD?

pocket11s Posts: 104Subscriber
edited September 2017 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
V1 ($600, recfish, UTG) limps $3,
Hero ($300, HJ) raises to $15 with K9ss,
V2 ($600, nitty-ish passive young guy, SB) calls,
V 1 calls

Flop ($48): Q87ssd
Checks to Hero, Hero bets $40, V2 calls, V1 folds

Turn ($128): 6h
V2 checks, Hero bets $115, V2 tanks, looks unsure, shows his neighbour and then calls

River ($358): Qc
V2 checks, Hero ?

Preflop: Usually fold, but we just sat down and CO/BTN were passive enough so came in for an iso vs recfish UTG.

Flop: Great flop for us, I usually go $25-30 in this spot but wanted to experiment with a slightly larger betsizing. Once V2 called, I figured he was Qx heavy, mainly AQ and some KQ/QJs, and maybe Axss. Sets are unlikely.

Turn: I was planning to take a free card OTT but the 6x was such a great card, I decided to double barrel, close to PSB to get him off all the above hands. Once called, I think he has a stubborn Q a lot. Maybe a FD+pair/sd type hand. PLANNING TO 100% SHUT DOWN if I whiff river as he's never folding much on the river for a measly $130.

River: Awful river. Expecting to face a shove. But instead, he snap checks. WTF? This doesn't make sense now. 99% players would never risk letting Qx check through OTR against a face up AA/KK. Also, I would 100% hear from sets or straights by now. He's also never showing up with random 2 pair/JJ-99/8x type hands EVER after calling ~PSBs over two streets based on my reads. This only leaves me with busted FDs. However, my hand blocks so many of those too, which leaves him with AJss, ATss, A5ss (the latter two picked up a SD OTT) and maybe even any Axss, although less likely. I'm just lost though as there's always that slight <1% chance he is trapping or is just mubsy with his Qx because I can have boats. Also, A8ss/A6ss which is 2pair might cry-call the river.

a) Should I just stick to my plan and give up as we generally should because there's almost 0 FE in these spots with a 1/3 PSB left? I don't want to look like an idiot when I check behind and V turns up with a higher busted NFD without the 6 or the 8.

b) Thoughts on flop/turn sizing?

Comments

  • ohsnapzbrah Posts: 632Subscriber
    Preflop and flop both look rather fine. I don't see a reason why not to iso raise this hand.

    Turn, bet sizing is way too big. We set ourselves up for less than a 1/2 pot size shove if we have to bluff the river. $90 is roughly the same size as $115, except you can make a larger river bet, which is more freighting than a large turn bet.

    I don't know why we wouldn't have bluffed river on most cards. When he flats turn, his range is severely capped to two pair at best. And of those, if this guy really is as nitty as described, he should only have the 87s and 76s as two pair. We do block flush draws, but we don't have the As blocker, which is very important. Many players play an exponential amount more of AsXs hands than KsXs hands. Combine that with the fact that the Q is a S (which cuts down on his QsXs hands), and it seems like a jam on the river, no matter the card...aside from a K. Worst thing to do is to accidentally lose to a hand like As5s, and we can also get hands like QT to fold.

    This river is a good card for our range. Combine that with the draw heavy nature and half as many Q's as he can have.....we will be getting a good price on our bluff, need to win about 30% of the time. If he calls with all of his Q's, and folds hands like 98, 76, AsXs....I think we can find enough combos that fold to warrant a jam. I'm more iffy on jamming this river than any other river though.
  • tanks_a_lottanks_a_lot Posts: 41Member
    I mostly agree with snapz about turn sizing. That said, we could just ✔ back OTT as that card is better for his range than for ours and it makes it much more believable to bluff the river if he checks to us. We would not likely bet that turn card with Q9 QT QJ or QK but we would most certainly bet the river for value with these hands.

    If you think he is likely to call two streets with JTo then you might consider checking back the river but that seems unlikely.

    As played I say a shove is in order to target Ax and counterfitted two pair hands.
  • BartBart Posts: 5,723AdministratorLeadPro
    How about betting something like $100 on the river? As play I would bluff the river, I'm just not sure you have to bet all-in.
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