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Betfold pychosis part two - two weak a river fold?

2/5, reasonable soft game at MGM. Limps around and I get a free ride in the big blind with 53 off. Board rolls off 762 rainbow. It checks through on the flop. I don't see the percentage in betting the sucker-gutter into 3 people. Turn is a 4, giving me the sucker straight and putting out a bavkdoor spade draw. I bet 15 into like 20, guy who seems a bit too aggressive pre-flop but otherwise standard who limped utg calls, everyone else folds. River rolls of an ace of spades, completing back-door flush draw. I bet 40 figuring I can get looked up by weird pairs that had straight draws, odd two/pairs etc. He raises to 110. I fold. Too weak? I just don't see even somewhat aggressive players bluffing a back door flush or turning some weird pair/busted draw into a bluff when I bet relatively large. Thoughts?

Comments

  • MonadPrimeMonadPrime Posts: 803Member
    edited September 2017
    70 to call into 200. Are we good ~ 25% here? Maybe, but I think a fold is more prudent given reads. Wouldn't be a terrible call though as you might catch a villain overplaying A4/A2/A6, but it's rare.
  • pray4blank Posts: 135Subscriber
    So....I'm curious...

    So we think we are betting primarily to be called by 2 pairs here? The ace with a flush draw makes me think we're not getting called by one pair often.

    So...do most 2 pairs bet here when we check? If so, we can check-call and get villain to value own himself and occasionally bluff. If not, I think the bet fold is plenty fine. Your hand should look quite likely to be a flush, so I don't see you getting raised here often with worse hands or bluffs.
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