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5-10 Commerce set turns to shit

BartBart Posts: 5,737AdministratorLeadPro
Later on at night last night at the Commerce. Hero is even for the session but easily could be up $5000. Has gotten into some huge pots with the best hand and has been drawn out on. I think this is important to note when thinking about gameflow in the this situation. One of those hands was a $3k pot versus the villain in this hand. Hero had raised 8 9 UTG and V1 called with TT. Flop came out JT7 we got it all-in on flop and board paired. There was also a hand where I made a huge 3 bet squeeze with AKs from the blinds and the villain tanked for like 5 minutes and folded AQ in the field, but saw me win a big pot with "the best hand". Also about 30 minutes before I lost with a set to a pair and a flush draw, another hand that he saw. The point is that its note that it appears that I am tilting but rather that when big money goes in a seem to have it.

Villain is early 50s Persian type, but doesnt appear to be that much of a gambler. Sort of playing his hands face up with sizing.

$1900 effective. V1 opens to $65 MP1 folded to Hero (this is always something strong, almost never a small pair) who calls in BB with 4 4

FLOP: 8 4 5

Check, check.

TURN: 3

Hero bets $80, V1 calls.

RIVER: 2

Hero checks, 1 bets $250.. Hero?
«1

Comments

  • TastesLikeBurning Posts: 429SubscriberProfessional
    I'm fine with a fold here. You say he's face up and he has plenty of AK/AQ with a heart that would peel turn.

    Do you think he is capable of turning a hand into a bluff? Based on the action it's easy to assume you don't have a straight. Moreover, you would think a face up player would check back his SDV a fair amount.
  • TerpHimselfTerpHimself Posts: 282Subscriber
    edited September 2017
    His line is super consistent with an AK or AQ hand with a heart in it. Wouldn't he check back almost all big over pairs on the river? Seems like a wheel almost all the time.

    I think this is a fold bc he might puke call an Ace despite the fact you can have a 6 or a flush that checked the river. Hard to range you on anything other than 66 given preflop action, also no way you should be checking a flush on the river with a chance to value target an Ace, but no idea if he's on that level.
  • MarcusMarcus Posts: 104Subscriber
    If this player has an unbalanced check back range on the flop then I would say that his hand leans more to Ax type hands and his call on the turn would probably be Ax hands that contains a heart. I don't see too many bluffs in our opponents range. If this player is opening more Ax hands than Kx hands I would say that would put more value hands in his range than bluffs also.

    Probably not a spot where i would hero call.
  • MarcusMarcus Posts: 104Subscriber
    Is this the hand where you made a check raise bluff on the river after thinking that he most has just Ax hands?
  • Beatsme Posts: 583Subscriber
    I mean 65 is a big open Right? What does this typically mean? I would assume it's more heavily weighted toward JJ QQ type hands rather than AK AQ type. Which means I think maybe you should lead flop here?

    His bet is very polarized right? I could see villain showing up with AKhh or AQhh alot. Ott he just calls to "set a trap" and raise the river.

    I think JJ type hands just check back otr. Those hands also prob bet the flop.

    I could see AK or AQ taking this line but the river bet would prob be a little smaller. I mean what is he trying to get called by with that sizing?

    Basically the hands that he arrives with on the river should be strong and have plenty of showdown value. Based on your description I don't think he turns those in to a bluff. Esp against you since he has seen all these hands where you have nutty hands when alot of money goes in.

    I think I just fold in this spot most of the time.
  • Letmewin1 Posts: 1,238Member
    edited September 2017
    If you think that he would raise his flushes OTT, can't really see him having too many because of pre, then his entire river value range will be only Ax thus creating a pretty cool spot to c/r as a bluff but only if he's capable of folding which he should be because up to this point he has seen you put in big $$ into pot only when you have it.
  • BartBart Posts: 5,737AdministratorLeadPro
    Marcus said:
    If this player has an unbalanced check back range on the flop then I would say that his hand leans more to Ax type hands and his call on the turn would probably be Ax hands that contains a heart. I don't see too many bluffs in our opponents range. If this player is opening more Ax hands than Kx hands I would say that would put more value hands in his range than bluffs also.

    Probably not a spot where i would hero call.
    I wasn't thinking of calling.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,083SubscriberProfessional
    First off this villain is wearing a dress shirt with either no buttons or he just has it open showing his chest and a big gold cross or something like that.. BIG gold bling.. obvious rec player..

    I was at the table with bart for all these hands.. Before Bart got there same villain called my raise pre called my flop bet on an all diamond board (I had bottom set) called my bet on the turn when a brick came but when the 4th diamond came I checked and villain bet 400 of the 550 he had left.. I just folded...

    what was weird was the smaller the stack he had the more he folded ...as his stack got bigger and bigger he seemed to be calling more.. I cannot remember ever seeing a player like this. When he had only 600 or 700 he would fold alot to pressure.. now maybe that was just a coincidence but game time that's what i saw..

    Ok so given all this history what would I would have done? I would just fold. Yeah my read is this guy has an ace.. yeah he does seem to bet and bet large when he thinks he has the best hand.. but I will say that I don't try to make moves on players who haven't shown me they can fold. As far as Bart has seen this guy hasn't folded.. He is playing his own hand he has a straight.. I just generally would ONLY try to bluff someone who a) I know can hand read at least a little...can see the flush possible on the board b) knows me and knows I am capable of making this play with a flush and or a 6 or even an ace too.. c) and finally CAN fold..

    If someone won't fold then it really doesn't matter what our read is.. I am really looking forward to the podcast on this hand because I almost wonder if a little Fancy Play Syndrome crept in . This is the longest time I have played with Bart so I can't tell you if this is typical of his play and this is why he has such a high win rate.

    by 1JKH
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,083SubscriberProfessional
    Beatsme said:
    I mean 65 is a big open Right? What does this typically mean? I would assume it's more heavily weighted toward JJ QQ type hands rather than AK AQ type. Which means I think maybe you should lead flop here?

    His bet is very polarized right? I could see villain showing up with AKhh or AQhh alot. Ott he just calls to "set a trap" and raise the river.

    I think JJ type hands just check back otr. Those hands also prob bet the flop.

    I could see AK or AQ taking this line but the river bet would prob be a little smaller. I mean what is he trying to get called by with that sizing?

    Basically the hands that he arrives with on the river should be strong and have plenty of showdown value. Based on your description I don't think he turns those in to a bluff. Esp against you since he has seen all these hands where you have nutty hands when alot of money goes in.

    I think I just fold in this spot most of the time.
    Same villain open raised to $75 utg with AA and stacked another player when he flopped a set...lol.. he got that villain for at least two buy ins cuz vil was pushing flush draws...
  • Letmewin1 Posts: 1,238Member
    edited September 2017
    Wendy
    Your entire response is on reads that no one in this thread will have because we are not at the table.

  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,083SubscriberProfessional
    Letmewin1 said:
    Wendy
    Your entire response is on reads that no one in this thread will have because we are not at the table.

    That's why I posted them.. It's so hard to discuss hands sometimes in forums because these important pieces of information are not available to you guys.. I am hoping that adding this information might help with range analysis and also vllains tendencies to call or fold..
  • Letmewin1 Posts: 1,238Member
    edited September 2017
    Thehammah said:
    Letmewin1 said:
    Wendy
    Your entire response is on reads that no one in this thread will have because we are not at the table.

    That's why I posted them.. It's so hard to discuss hands sometimes in forums because these important pieces of information are not available to you guys.. I am hoping that adding this information might help with range analysis and also vllains tendencies to call or fold..
    If Bart omitted certain details from his thread he must have a reason to do so.
  • neverlearn2 Posts: 2,804Subscriber
    edited September 2017
    Only A he can have is really A here right? No sixes as well. Does he open AKo to that sizing?

    I call here

    He obv fast plays his made hands so we can take out AA, he probably doesn't open 66 and I'm sure he bets a high % on the flop with his bluffs low value hands like 66.

    Also you been aggro and now you check river. Really good spot in game flow to take a shot for rec players.
  • Beatsme Posts: 583Subscriber
    Marcus said:
    Is this the hand where you made a check raise bluff on the river after thinking that he most has just Ax hands?
    Oohhh.... I think you blew up barts post... lol
  • ohsnapzbrah Posts: 632Subscriber
    Call is out of the question. His hand is fairly obviously Ax, more than likely AK or AQ. Very likely one of them is a heart as well. There's a 40% chance that he has a heart in his hand if he doesn't fold any of his AK/AQ hands to our turn bet. Even larger if he folds even some of them (taking AKhh/AQhh out of the equation)

    If we go into deep level thinking, what do we think he thinks our river raising range is, and do we think he thinks we would play a lot of suited connectors to that raise sizing preflop? If he thinks deeply, then he should know that we shouldn't really have many heart flushes in our range due to his preflop raise sizing and us being OOP. So against a good opponent, a raise would only represent 66 and maybe 76s.

    By the description of this opponent, he does not seem like a good opponent. So we need to take other factors into consideration. He bet $250 into a pot of $295 on the river. That is a large percentage of the pot. From experience, and I'm sure from your experience, players don't fold value hands to river check/raises when they bet such a large percentage of the pot. He is more apt to put us on a flush if we check/raise than a solid opponent, but he just may not fold a rivered straight even the idiot end. So I'd just sigh fold.
  • Letmewin1 Posts: 1,238Member
    edited September 2017
    Beatsme said:
    Marcus said:
    Is this the hand where you made a check raise bluff on the river after thinking that he most has just Ax hands?
    Oohhh.... I think you blew up barts post... lol
    +1

    Yeah, makes no sense to post if you were at the table.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,083SubscriberProfessional
    Letmewin1 said:
    Beatsme said:
    Marcus said:
    Is this the hand where you made a check raise bluff on the river after thinking that he most has just Ax hands?
    Oohhh.... I think you blew up barts post... lol
    +1

    Yeah, makes no sense to post if you were at the table.
    guess thats directed at me. lol. nothing like a little passive aggressive for the forums eh?

    For the record I would not have posted my thoughts in such detail had I not seen marcus' post first.

    I find it so supremely nauseating to post my thoughts when it seems rather than asking me why I posted something or what my thoughts were I get this response. guess I just stay in my slack thread.

  • MonadPrimeMonadPrime Posts: 803Member
    Fold. If our image was better, a bluff x/r trying to make villain fold Ax probably works more often. Also, readless, it's not impossible for a bad/passive villain to have a flush some non trivial % of the time, nor can we be sure they're capable of folding Ax.
    by 1JKH
  • Letmewin1 Posts: 1,238Member
    MonadPrime said:
    Fold. If our image was better, a bluff x/r trying to make villain fold Ax probably works more often. Also, readless, it's not impossible for a bad/passive villain to have a flush some non trivial % of the time, nor can we be sure they're capable of folding Ax.
    Our image is that when we put in any significant amount of money in the middle we have it.
  • neverlearn2 Posts: 2,804Subscriber
    hammah. im gonna go on a limb and say that wasnt directed towards you.
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