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*** 2/5 Borgata (1K cap) TP on river

ClockClock Posts: 1,098Subscriber
edited September 2017 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
2/5 @ Borgata. They just raised the cap to 1K (it used to be $500) There's a tourney series going on.
1K effective

V is older guy, maybe ~60 yo.
Most pots are very multi-way.
Folded to V in LP he raises to 20, HERO on his left calls with QJo, Blinds fold, HU to the flop.

Flop (45): J73r - V bets 30, HERO calls
Turn (105): 2o - V bets 70, HERO calls
River (245): 8o - V bets 175, HERO?
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Comments

  • ohsnapzbrah Posts: 632Subscriber
    What is your read on this villain? Has he been aggressive? Is he your typical OMC? Is he a standard rec player?

    I think at a table that is seeing a lot of multiway flops, I feel confident thinking that most of the players are probably passive. Passive players tend to not run triple barrel bluffs. We lose to QQ (3), KK (6), AA (6), 77 (3) 33 (1.5), KJ (8), and AJ (8). That's 35.5 combos we lose to off the bat. There also aren't many draws that he could be bluffing if he is apt to do so. This seems like a spot to just fold river. Also note the differing bet sizings. 30 -> 70 -> 175 isn't a standard rec player bet sizing. I'd expect something like 30 -> 60 -> 100 or 120. Which means he's probably putting thought into his bets, which means it's probably closer to a value hand than a bluff.
    by 1Beatsme
  • ClockClock Posts: 1,098Subscriber
    He's older, but not an OMC
    He's has a look of an older "reg", but I'm pretty sure he's a rec player.
    That's about as much of a read as I had at the time...
  • neverlearn2 Posts: 2,827Subscriber
    id fold here is my initial reaction.

    The river sizing is key, IMO a rec player shouldnt be thinking that high that you will be folding TPBK now to a larger size. He probably has KJ and was just hoping to fade an A then went for gold when he thoyght he was good which was from you just calling him down anyways, if you raised he would probably call regardless.
  • sanox Posts: 82Subscriber
    the response may also depend on how you play AJ and KJ pf.

    If you flat AJ and KJ pf, I would call with them, fold QJo and bluff raise JTs and J9s.
    If you 3bet AJ and KJ, then QJ becomes kind of the top of you range and I would at least call from time to time
  • MonadPrimeMonadPrime Posts: 803Member
    Lame, but fold. Even in a vacuum there's very few missed semi bluffs villain gets to river with this way.
  • ClockClock Posts: 1,098Subscriber
    Spoiler:

    HERO folded. Villain showed A9o
  • neverlearn2 Posts: 2,827Subscriber
    This OMC would have owned all of us. Hahaha
  • MonadPrimeMonadPrime Posts: 803Member
    Clock said:
    Spoiler:

    HERO folded. Villain showed A9o
    LOL. Lesson learned.
  • BKismBKism Posts: 203SubscriberProfessional
    I don't like your play PF, which leads to this outcome.

    If this is CO v button, less atrocious, but if this HJ v CO, this is a clear fold or raise. For me, preflop,this a fold way more than it is not.

    I don't like flatting non-suited cards vs LP raiser, because an aware player in the blinds can print money 3!ing this spot.

    That being said, I fold some turns vs the villian you described and most rivers, unless I have a history with him that gives me a solid read.

    The fact that there are little draws, he would have to be barreling little to no-equity for three streets. If he can do that vs me, take it.

    I doubt it, but if he is aware enough to know that your range includes a ton of KJ through JT's, which he does not block, and then he pressured you into folding. Wow! He might not be an OMC but stealthy, hoody at heart, backpack toting "superstar".




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