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1/3 -- Contemplating a River Bluff

MonadPrimeMonadPrime Posts: 803Member
edited September 2017 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Villain is same Middle-Aged Lady from the Q9hh hand. Still relatively readless, as she left the table for awhile and only recently came back. Her raise on the flop made me think she had a lot of Kx, occasionally Jx, some nut hands like 55/JJ/KJ, and basically no draws. So my intention on turn was to either hit my gutshot or A, or pick up FD equity & bluff her with diamonds. On river I contemplated overbetting, but wasn't sure whether a Kx would make a stubborn call, and didn't know if I could actually represent Jx here, as my original plan was just to bluff diamonds, so I just check intending to give up. Her tiny river bet looks a lot like Kx trying to get thin value, but I really have no idea if a random rec is capable of doing that in position on this board? Also stack-to-pot is a little on the shallow side. So I got a little out of my element not knowing how exactly to weight her range & my fold equity and curious what others would have done. Thanks.

Hero ($330): Ad Qc

fold, Hero raises $20, fold x 4, Villain calls OTB, SB/BB fold

Flop ($44): Kd Jc 5d

Hero bets $25, Villain raises to $55, Hero calls

Turn ($154): Js

Hero checks, Villain checks

River: 5c

Hero checks, Villain bets $55, Hero ???
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Comments

  • psi1122 Posts: 130Subscriber
    How confident are you in the villain having sizing tells, given the history from the past hand, it looks like she has a sizing tell.

    And if you think she's not going to level herself into (It looks weak, so I looks like I induced a bluff here by betting so small on the river) a hero call with a Kx. Then I say we can go for it.
  • neverlearn2 Posts: 2,827Subscriber
    This is a tricky spot and I get in trouble here alot. I push these edges a lot where I play and I get called a lot tbh.

    To me. To a rec. She passed her infliction point already and she's not folding here. She's not deep enough
  • sanox Posts: 82Subscriber
    Was there a straddle or is 20$ an exploitative raise size ? This is important as it could narrow her pf range

    This is a funny spot because you are both very unlikely to have a J or a 5 here. You would probably check on the flop and that would not make send for her to raise. You have a slight range advantage as you have 3 combo of KK and 1 combo of JJ that she should not have given the pf.

    Overbetting with AQ here is tempting , but I would do it with the ones that do not contain a diamond , or at least not the A of d as you can make some splits fold if she has Axdd. But still you cannot overbet all your AQ unless you have a read that vilain overfolds otherwise you would be unbalanced .
  • Acidhauss Posts: 291Subscriber
    As long as villain isnt completely clueless I would 3bet the flop vs this weak sort of raise. Sometimes youll run into a strong hand but more often than not its some weak top pair, Jx or silly hand like 77.
  • MonadPrimeMonadPrime Posts: 803Member
    edited September 2017
    Spoiler:
    Hero folds. Villain shows K8o.
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