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2/2 - flop nuts, but running bad

Vans14 Posts: 66Member
edited September 2017 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
So I'm definitely playing scared after getting rivered multiple times this session.

8 players limp to Hero in the SB.

Hero in SB ($400) JTo raises to $25
BB calls ($500)
MP calls ($500)
everyone else folds

Flop $80 Ad Kd Qc

Hero bets $40
BB thinks for about 10 seconds and calls
MP calls

Turn $200 Ad Kd Qc 8s
Hero bets $175
BB tank calls
MP folds

River $550 Ad Kd Qc 8s 5d
Hero checks
BB snap shoves

So I have to call $160 for a $700+ pot. Is this a call even if I put my opponent on a flush? Like do I just pay it off here? Or can we actually fold given if we put him squarely on flushes? Obviously the 1 card I was begging the poker gods not to drop was a diamond. Am I pot committed even? I still have about $160 behind which doesnt necessarily seem like "aw fuck it" territory. I mean thats still a decent 80BB stack.

Results: Hero folds, BB shows mercy and turns over AKo

His showdown kinda reinforces my paranoia in live games of being unable to properly range opponents since they just show up with hands in situations that make no sense to me.


  • neverlearn2 Posts: 2,827Subscriber
    Did you have a diamond?

    What did you put him on when he called and on flop? Only a few flush combos right?
  • Vans14 Posts: 66Member
    edited September 2017
    On the flop I think either villain can have virtually any flush draw, a few gutshots, a few top pair rag kicker type hands, and occasionally 2 pair since a lot of live fish just open limp hands like KQo and AQo.

    No I do not have a diamond

    On the turn my thought process is now "mostly flush draws" which is why i went from 1/2 PSB to betting nearly pot for value since I know live players will basically never fold a flush draw.
  • sanox Posts: 82Subscriber
    You could have started to bet pot flop. When you flop a straight, you never block strong hands such as sets or two pair, so there is lot of value to be taken.

    River, it's a call with the odds you are getting.
    by 1CycleV
  • psi1122 Posts: 130Subscriber
    edited September 2017
    Not trying to be an ass here, but please don't post results in the original post because I think it's going to bias results.

    I'm not sure if we can say mostly flush draws. I think he can show up with alot of pair+gutter (AT,AJ, KT,KJ,QT,QJ) lots of combos there. Two pairs, (AQ,KQ,A8 (probably both suited and offsuit)etc.

    In all honestly, I think we should just shove river with a 1/3 PSB left, I highly doubt villains folds that many pairs if you think he's a sticky player.
    by 1CycleV
  • markmanzino Posts: 1Member
    not band, i think it had to be published somewhere, maybe at some sport service
  • ohsnapzbrah Posts: 632Subscriber
    I'm surprised that noone else has mentioned this, but the raise preflop leaves us very vulnerable. We have the worst position, against a bunch of limpers, with a hand that is never going to flop well unless we get specifically this flop above. We don't have the suitedness to give us that additional playability with the hand. So I'm not entirely sure what we're trying to accomplish by raising preflop.

    Bet a bit larger on the flop. This is a board that should connect very well with people's ranges calling a 12.5xBB preflop raise, so they will call with more hands and wider as well.

    Turn bet seems fine imo.

    River, we should look combinatorically at the possible flushes. With the A and K being flushes, it becomes very unlikely that the player is on a flush himself because players are more likely to play the suited As and Ks rather than Qs and Js preflop. We have QJdd, JTdd, QTdd, maybe a couple of lower suited connectors like T9dd. And this is assuming the player, with those combo draws, doesn't try to just get the money in. So flushes should make up a very small portion of his range. More likely is the hand that he shows up with, AK or AQ or AJ or KQ, which we block none of. We also don't lose to 8 of the remaining 9 JT combos. I think we just jam ourselves, worse will definitely be calling.
  • Vans14 Posts: 66Member
    Yeah I actually said out loud "wtf flush can you have? Watch him turn over 97dd or something". I think ultimately this was probably more of a case of playing scared money (rebuilding roll) than making sound decisions. I had made a few bad river calls vs gayraises because I just had to see how I was beat and figured me paying off this river shove was just more of the same.
  • MonadPrimeMonadPrime Posts: 803Member
    Why bloat the pot out of the SB with a hand that barely qualifies as playable against a legion of players? Just complete 99%. Sizing is good pre but this is very gambly maneuver against the call down artists who haunt 1/2.
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