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$5-10 Flopped a House But.. Hollywood (Podcast from 9-26-17)

BartBart Posts: 5,831AdministratorLeadPro
edited September 2017 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
5-10 11:30PM at Commerce. Hero with above average image and sits with $2500. Villain is early 30s unknown an obvious recreational player. Making mistakes, missed value bets wrong sizing etc. But hasn't put big money into the pot over a few hours.

Many walkers so 6 handed and Hero opens T 8 to $35. Button ($800) rec calls. V1 calls in BB ($2200).

FLOP: T 8 8

V1 leads $25.. Hero raises to $75, Button folds and BB calls quickly.

$255 TURN: Q

BB checks. Hero bets $200. V1 pauses, then starts to put on a huge Hollywood act. Literally gives a pained look, looks at his chips and raises to $500 after 2-3 minutes. Hero, not wanting any action killing cards to come and not wanting V1 to check river from upfront raises back to $1000 total. V1 repeats the same act and ceremony takes two more minutes and calls. The turn action takes at least 5 minutes.

$2255 RIVER: J

Villain quickly moves all-in without a care in the world.
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Comments

  • MonadPrimeMonadPrime Posts: 803Member
    A rec couldn't overvalue/play J9 here?
  • BartBart Posts: 5,831AdministratorLeadPro
    MonadPrime said:
    A rec couldn't overvalue/play J9 here?
    It's possible although I would expect that hand to get it in on turn or play defensive if turn just a call and a check on the river with a T88QJ board.
  • MonadPrimeMonadPrime Posts: 803Member
    Bart said:
    MonadPrime said:
    A rec couldn't overvalue/play J9 here?
    It's possible although I would expect that hand to get it in on turn or play defensive if turn just a call and a check on the river with a T88QJ board.
    Sure, fair points. So we're only worried about 6 combos of Q8/J8, right? How much are you discounting the 12 combos of J9? Even if this line represents only 25% of J9, don't we still have to call?
  • maphacks Posts: 1,999Subscriber
    Commerce random factor too high. Call

    Also IMO it makes it a bit less likely that he has it when he takes that ridicolous amount of time
  • brick Posts: 127Subscriber
    edited September 2017
    I'd also add a few discounted combinations of a slow played QQ to the mix, but then I'd add a few combinations of "opponent just took a hit of cocaine in the bathroom", and call for the reasons MonadPrime stated.

    Might be a live read situation where you are sure he's not off his rocker and you can also tell he is actually very very stong and not acting.

    I could see a case for folding but would be mostly based on 10+ years playing live poker and just knowing that he has it. This would help confirm that calling isn't that profitable. Which means folding isn't a huge mistake.
  • brick Posts: 127Subscriber
    Just thought about this a little more.
    ~1100 to win 4400.

    My current estimate is that we are only good about 1 in 5, so if I could find a tank then maybe I could find a fold.
  • BartBart Posts: 5,831AdministratorLeadPro
    brick said:
    Just thought about this a little more.
    ~1100 to win 4400.

    My current estimate is that we are only good about 1 in 5, so if I could find a tank then maybe I could find a fold.
    Its 1100 to win 3400 not 4400. Although I see this mistake a lot when players are trying to shortcut calculate equity of 1100/4400 or 25%.. But thats good 1 in 4 times not 1 in 5.
  • BartBart Posts: 5,831AdministratorLeadPro
    Bart said:
    [quote="brick;105212"]Just thought about this a little more.
    ~1100 to win 4400.

    My current estimate is that we are only good about 1 in 5, so if I could find a tank then maybe I could find a fold.
    Its 1100 to win 3400 not 4400. Although I see this mistake a lot when players are trying to shortcut calculate equity of 1100/4400 or 25%.. But thats good 1 in 4 times not 1 in 5. The pot odds are 3 to 1.

  • iamallin Posts: 1,173SubscriberProfessional
    Not a fan of the 3 bet.

    Described player type dosent strike me as someone who bets his draws into the pfr.

  • TastesLikeBurning Posts: 429SubscriberProfessional
    Call AINEC, rec player is gonna have several 8x suited combos closing the action pre, not to mention potential overplays of straights and some unsuited 8x hands like unsuited connectors. We are easily good here 1/4 times.
  • BartBart Posts: 5,831AdministratorLeadPro
    iamallin said:
    Not a fan of the 3 bet.

    Described player type dosent strike me as someone who bets his draws into the pfr.

    Fan of the three bet where? On the turn vs the check raise?
  • ddz Posts: 150SubscriberProfessional
    Obviously this is quite a tough and close spot, but I think i lean to a fold.

    Is a player that hasn't put significant money in the pot and missing value bets going to casual jam river with A8 or K8 after it goes bet, check-raise, 3-bet on river and he tank calls.

    The main question is if he somehow thinks 89 (for the straight) is the nuts here.

    I think most players with nonboated 8's are just trying to get to showdown as cheaply as possible on river after that turn action, not Hollywooding turn and then open jamming river

    Based on the limited reads you've given us, I think this is a sigh-fold
  • brick Posts: 127Subscriber
    Apologies if my description was confusing but I did do the math right. Being good 25% would result in a break even or 0 EV call. I was thinking you might be good 20%.
    by 1Bart
  • iamallin Posts: 1,173SubscriberProfessional
    edited September 2017
    Yeah..I think the turn 3 bet will scare even the most obtuse of rec players..I much prefer calling the check raise and raising his river bet depending on the river card and his sizing. .

    We have position on the river ..I can see an argument for bet 3 betting turn if we were oop since many times a rec player will raise turn to check back river ...trying to buy himself a cheap showdown.
  • jwit Posts: 35Member
    Going without tells, preflop, this villain would 3 bet JJ and QQ at least a decent amount of the time, leading me to discount these holdings from his range a bit. only one combo of 10 10. J8s Q8s certainly in range, so are more combos of A8 and K8s. Also, being a rec player, he may just never give you much credit for an 8 here and think you are taking advantage of him, leading him to get overaggro. So without any other information and given the odds, this is a call.

    Given tells, why did you 3 bet the turn? Your reasoning and you read (instincts) betray one another. If a guy hollywoods that bad and puts out a 1.5x 3 bet, he's not checking the river
  • kaboojiekaboojie Posts: 360Subscriber
    Do you think V could be flatting TT or QQ pre? I see some players do this at my level, but maybe this just doesn't happen at 5/10. If so, that adds 6 combos to what I see as a pretty narrow value bet range on the river. The other value hands I see are 1 Q8s and 1 J8s.

    V could also be overvaluing 3 combos of J9s here. I don't think we can completely discount A8 here either.

    With the strength you showed on the turn, I can't see any bluffs here. To bluff this river, V would have to be either very sophisticated or very bad.

    Getting 3:1 on your money, I would call here.
  • ClockClock Posts: 1,098Subscriber
    I think we have to call.
    The only hand I'm worried about is Q8s - 1 combo!!!
    Would a rec player donk top boat (TT) into preflop raiser here - that's just soooo unlikely.

    Would he not 3bet QQ (ok possible...) and lead super tiny into 2 people?
    I mean I would be shocked if he did that... :eek:

    He cannot have JJ with turn action almost ever - that's insane. :eek:
    J8...I guess possible :???: , but turn is still pretty insane and if he does do it with J8 (1 combo also btw) he does it with many other 8x as well...

    So that leaves us with 1 combo of Q 8 maybe A8 and overplayed str8s.
    River is very interesting because AK comes in.
    I know we can never have AK given this action, but it may not matter to a rec player just starring at the final board.
    I think we have to close our eyes and call this one.
  • BartBart Posts: 5,831AdministratorLeadPro
    edited September 2017
    iamallin said:
    Yeah..I think the turn 3 bet will scare even the most obtuse of rec players..I much prefer calling the check raise and raising his river bet depending on the river card and his sizing. .

    We have position on the river ..I can see an argument for bet 3 betting turn if we were oop since many times a rec player will raise turn to check back river ...trying to buy himself a cheap showdown.
    Yeah on this one I disagree strongly. And I have discussed this quite a bit on the podcast in the last 6 months with nuttish hands on the turn facing aggression.

    In this case, the check raise turn, fold to a 3 bet line from a rec who is OOP is almost non existent IMO, so the issue here is how often we get a bet out of him, and then a call of a raise on the river. A lot of recs will check scare cards at the end, so if a guy has A8 or J9 here he falls into a check call shell and we never get the extra bet. If they aren't folding to the 3 bet on the turn and have a partial frequency of not betting river, why are we not 3 betting the turn ?
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,313Subscriber
    Smells so much like TT assuming he doesn't 3b you out of fear or QQ. He wont put you on an 8. His quick action on the flop tells me he has a hand easy to play. I don't even think he has an 8 here. At best Q8s?!? But even then I think he takes time and thinks about how he wants to play it.

    I think I would fold because I don't think he overplays a straight. And an acting job to bluff? Act twice then insta shove? Smells like nuts to me.
  • ClockClock Posts: 1,098Subscriber
    Fuzzypup said:
    Smells so much like TT assuming he doesn't 3b you out of fear or QQ...
    I think TT makes the least sense here.
    What rec player donks out with top boat?
    OK, lets say he's a tricky one and trying to induce with TT by betting super small...
    OK, fine...he got it - he got raised, now he just flats the 75 raise with so much $$$ behind?
    It just doesn't make any sense no matter how he thinks in his head....

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