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$5k decision preflop..

BartBart Posts: 5,835AdministratorLeadPro
edited November 2017 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Last night, Hollywood Park. Game is $5-$10-$20 with rock straddle. 6 handed.

V1 is a medium/large winning pro. Not a total crusher from the scouting but from what I know, way above average. He has been 3 betting more than anyone else at the table, but not a crazy frequency. V2 is a 5-5 guy taking a shot.

V1 and Hero $5000 eff
V2 $1000

6 handed. Hero has above average image and opens to $65 UTG with Q Q. Straddle is in the CO and folds. V2 in sb calls. BB 3 bets to $320. Hero calls. Sb back ships for $1000. BB takes about 1 minute with it and moves all in..

Hero?
Tagged:
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Comments

  • neverlearn2 Posts: 2,828Subscriber
    edited November 2017
    hero has 4680 to win 6000. If V2 has AK here for sure than im sure we can get the math for a call. KK+ and AK is 60/40

    If V1 has to be takin this line with a nutted range and we hold two Queen blockers. Than what is V1 and V2 making these plays with when the Qx hands are cut in half.

    Have to take the logical step of thining they would shove with maybe JJ as well to make the combos work. Seems too optimistic here to think they will shove with hands we crush here and not flip at best with.

    but i dont play this high. very interested in thoughts of those that do here.

    Edit. It's a fold for me.
  • 8BitJoe Posts: 13Subscriber
    3k of the pot is winnable by V2 so it's not as simple as assigning range to V1. But I do think you have the math to call, even if we considered V1 to possibly win the whole pot. Unless there's more info that's not being presented here, I think it's a close call/fold depending on whether u want to deal with variance and how much longer you plan to play for the session. The longer you're staying the more I like the call.
  • iamallin Posts: 1,173SubscriberProfessional
    Fold.

    Scneario 1
    Short stack : jj, qq, AK
    Big stack : qq+, ak

    Our equity 3 ways : 38.30%
    Our equity heads up : 40.20%

    Our total ev in the main pot and side pot : 4365

    If we fold : our stack is at 4700.

    So calling off has a total ev of -400

    Scenario 2
    Short stack : jj+, AK
    Big stack : qq+, AK
    Our equity 3 ways : 31.82% forget about it..it's even worse than what we saw above.


    For us to call here, we need a read that none of them are ever showing up with AA.

    Under that assumption, our equity 3 ways is 43.48% and 45.88% heads up and our call will be profitable if you add up the ev of main pot and side pot.

    So if you are sure they never have AA when this action has taken place, call it off. Otherwise fold.

    If you think the big stack is completely out of line and will show up with jj, tt, aq etc then call it off as well.

    From my experience, most people don't light $5k on fire with jj or aq in this spot.


    My final recommendation : Fold.

    We are obviously over folding in this spot. But 2 players are all in and one of them had to risk 250bb to get us to fold. So I don't mind it that much. We should mix in some AA, kk here ocassioanlly as a flat call.
  • ClockClock Posts: 1,098Subscriber
    edited November 2017
    I did the math (below)
    Obv, everything depends on how accurate the ranges are.
    Ok, so first V2, I think there's very little chance of him being too light here.
    What I like to do when I do calculations like this is make it worse on myself, so I will liberally give V2 range of:
    TT+, AQs+, AKo
    I reality I suspect it might be tighter than that, but lets go with this.

    Now V1. His range is obviously the subject of most discussion.
    First, I think he can't be light cause V2 is AI, so I think hands like A5s, etc are out of the questions.
    Now we're left to speculate how likely he is to do it with top of his range (AA, KK)
    Its debatable...

    I plugged in 3 diff ranges:
    - JJ+, AK+ (this assumes he will shove everything, including AA and KK all the time)
    image
    image

    - JJ+, AK+ (half AA) (this assumes he will only shove half his AA and slow play the other half to try to lure you in)
    image
    image

    - JJ+, AK+ (no AA, half KK) (this assumes he NEVER shoves AA, but will shove half his KK)
    I think it's reasonable to assume that V1 will shove KK at least some of the time, because if he flats he really giving you a decent price even if you have AK (very reasonable) and it will be very easy for you to play post flop because it's protected pot.
    image
    image

    You will see results below and you will see that EV highly dependent on how often V1 shoves AA.

    Results:
    image
    ***typo - should be "3way (V1 no AA, half KK)" ***


    It looks like if we think V1 is pretty balanced in his shoving range and will shove AA pretty often, it's probably a fold, cause we're barely winning (under most favorable range/frequency assumptions to us) and obv it's a HUGE variance.

    If we can somehow be sure that V1 is unbalanced and very rarely shoving AA - it becomes more of a call :lol:
    I think it's a fold...






    601 x 219 - 36K
    603 x 222 - 37K
    589 x 154 - 28K
    593 x 214 - 34K
    601 x 183 - 31K
    597 x 163 - 30K
    985 x 242 - 67K
  • DrSpace Posts: 716Subscriber
    The line you chose to take with the flat vs a vg pro 3! should make you favor a call. I would certainly exploit you from the bb if I think you are folding every single hand here. This is a professional balance spot where we call one of our best hands. If QQ is not good enough to call the bb is playing an exploitively tight shoving range. This does assume that the sb is either not crazy tight shoving here or not perceived to be so by the bb.

    An exploitive fold because we are not in a high EV spot is probably not a big deal either. This is especially true if you won't be in similar configurations with these folks on a consistent basis.

    I shoved 45s for 2.5K as UTG opener against a titled $400 blind in a $5/10/20 game where a good pro had flatted my open and was capped at AKo (his actual holding) because I knew he would fold every single hand in that spot and there were a few overcalls making my play profitable and good for my image.
  • Letmewin1 Posts: 1,238Member
    edited November 2017
    5-6 years ago I would have said fold but these days the youngster pros would shove Axs so often to iso 6 handed then this becomes a much harder spot to fold.
    Looking at how you played your hand/range he shouldn’t expect you waking up with near top of it here, I believe that you’d open wider and call a 3! with most of your continuing range at this stack depth, so if he expects you to fold all your SC all your PP 10’s and below maybe even JJ most of your suited Ax and AJo- then QQ kinda has to call for 250BB even tho you’re not really happy.
  • JKH Posts: 835Subscriber
    edited November 2017
    I see the math laid out above but from the description of the Villian, how the hand occurred and the action I feel like u are against the value hands of alot of AK”s, a discounted number of underpairs, obv the AA”s &KK”s and potentially some merged suited Ace high bluffs like aj suited, trying to squeeze u out b/c u show weakness just calling the 3 bet and small blind is clearly unlikely to be overly strong flatting original raise, but likely has a moderately strong hand ....for the 250BB I would favour calling it off.

    If u wanted to avoid this tough spot u could also use a 4 bet fold line, 4 betting to 800-1000, and if V1 shoved over that he is more likely to have the AA or KK imo.

    I think with the current action there is at least some frequency where V1 is squeezing u out of the pot with a strong holding that is weaker than QQ, making me more in favour of calling off...
  • Letmewin1 Posts: 1,238Member
    Thinking out loud,
    If the shot taker is aware of BB higher squeezing frequency then aren’t we able to discount big pairs more often from BB range?
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,316Subscriber
    edited November 2017
    Maybe I missed it but didn't someone find strange the SB flatted instead of 3b, then back shipped? If this was a normal player I wouldn't think much of it.

    But this guy just came from 5/5 to "take a shot". His money fear should be higher than normal here thus leaning his shove for stronger hands. At least consider it. So that $1000 has to be taken into account for the value of the call along with extra removal of Aces from the deck when considering the call.

    I know someone who is an amazing 5/5 and 5/10 player. But even he admits he would be squeamish in a 10/25 game. Which is the same effect of going from 5/5 to 5/10/20.
  • JKH Posts: 835Subscriber
    edited November 2017
    Fuzzypup said:
    Maybe I missed it but didn't someone find strange the SB flatted instead of 3b, then back shipped? If this was a normal player I wouldn't think much of it.

    But this guy just came from 5/5 to "take a shot". His money fear should be higher than normal here thus leaning his shove for stronger hands. At least consider it. So that $1000 has to be taken into account for the value of the call along with extra removal of Aces from the deck when considering the call.

    I know someone who is an amazing 5/5 and 5/10 player. But even he admits he would be squeamish in a 10/25 game. Which is the same effect of going from 5/5 to 5/10/20.
    I typically find shottakers think bluff frequencies are higher from regs than they are making it more like the shot taker is making a stand with a solid but weaker hand than qq I would expect a lot off 99 10 10 jj aq aj suited kq suited in shot takers range. Shot taker could even have a lot of Ak.
    by 1AJoff
  • iamallin Posts: 1,173SubscriberProfessional
    Keep in mind that the bb 3 bet to 320 knowing that the short stack was in the hand.

    At that stack size the bb is committed to calling it off against the short stack. This heavily reduces his "random suited ace" bluffs.

  • neverlearn2 Posts: 2,828Subscriber
    ^^^ I agree. The Shot taker when he shoves knows he has 0 FE. This is AK or AA IMO. maybe KK. When the other Vllain reshoves, that is when the hand gets hard. But Villain 2 isnt some rec fish, he knows Bart is pretty strong here when he calls his 3!.

    If Vil 2 has a bluffing range here because he thinks our range is capped by flatting the 1k shove, that mean Bart isnt balanced in that spot to Villain?
  • Letmewin1 Posts: 1,238Member
    edited November 2017
    @iamallin
    Isn’t the BB priced in anyway?
    Are you saying that his range changes because he shoved?

    @neverlearn2
    Knowing that he’ll be squeezed often enough I would think that Bart’s opening range in this spot will contain hands that are willing to call a 3 IP 250BB deep, that doesn’t necessarily mean he has to be “strong” if he thinks that SB is either shoving or folding if squeezed.

    quote="neverlearn2;106415"]

    If Vil 2 has a bluffing range here because he thinks our range is capped by flatting the 1k shove, that mean Bart isnt balanced in that spot to Villain?[/quote]

    Bart also has to have a range that folds to this action when he decides to flat, all he needs to do is decide what part of that range folds and what parts call the AI, folding the 3rd best starting hand when we can discount some high cards and some pairs might be a mistake, I’m no math genius so I will not comment on the math formula of this spot but IMO QQ falls into the call category more often than fold even if it’s for a small profit.

  • ClockClock Posts: 1,098Subscriber
    edited November 2017
    iamallin said:
    Keep in mind that the bb 3 bet to 320 knowing that the short stack was in the hand.

    At that stack size the bb is committed to calling it off against the short stack. This heavily reduces his "random suited ace" bluffs.

    I agree plus I think more importantly when he re-shoves, he's calling SB's 1K shove, who can't be light IMO.
    What's the lightest can SB shove here? AJ?
    I don't see how BB can re-shove some small Axs here, it just doesn't make any sense.
    I'll buy an argument that he has some suited connector hand like 78s faster than Axs here...
  • pocketzeroes Posts: 174Subscriber
    Hero’s pretty much at the top of his range, and V2 must expect almost all of hero’s range to fold - so I think it’s a call. Even if we discount stuff like AQs, AJs, 78s, TT, JJ a ton for V1, I think there’s still enough of those sorts of combos. If V1’s 3bet range is wideish, then he doesn’t need a very high frequency of shipping any of these combos individually for him to show up dominated against QQ enough to get our equity to the right place for a call. I say call... Also, I just kinda think that if I see a tank/jam here, I’m really discounting KK+; it seems more like he’s working out how often hero is calling and equity against hero’s calling range. This obviously isn’t to say he can’t balance his tanking with KK+, but I think we should discount it.
  • JKH Posts: 835Subscriber
    edited November 2017
    I think there is another level not discussed here .....is the 5-10-20 game the regular game where players come to the room expecting 5k to be 250bb or is this a 5-10 game morphed into a 5-10-20 game where players come to the room thinking 5k is 500bb. If it’s the later scenario where this kind of money only goes in preflop once a night then I would be more inclined to fold the QQ.
    If this is just another 250BB pot and action like this is not all that uncommon then I am more opt to call with QQ.

    I don’t like QQ for 500bb preflop against most sain villains but I don’t mind it for 250BB
  • Letmewin1 Posts: 1,238Member
    If this hand will be discused in depth only in the Top Section then I don’t see the point of posting it here.
  • iamallin Posts: 1,173SubscriberProfessional
    No I am talking about his initial decision to 3 bet to 320 facing an early position ( although only 6 handed) raise and a flat call from a short stacker.

    That initial 3 bet is already pretty value heavy or rather should be if bb understands the dynamics.

    The 5 bet range is derived from the 3 bet range. If the 3 bet is tight to begin with, hands like "random suited ace" aren't going to show up in the 5 bet range.
  • BartBart Posts: 5,835AdministratorLeadPro
    Letmewin1 said:
    If this hand will be discused in depth only in the Top Section then I don’t see the point of posting it here.
    Who said that?
  • maphacks Posts: 1,999Subscriber
    without doing any math I think we have to call this. we slightly weaken our range by just calling (at least in his eyes I would say) the 320. I would also say that there is at least a chance that villain does not backship all AA combos here.

    having said that, it would be nice to know if he feels absolutely comfortable playing that limit. if his main game is 5-10, I imagine he will rarely slowplay AA and more often just call AK/QQ (JJ) here. that information might actually be the most useful TBH
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