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Flop top two, worst river in the world

abstractls Posts: 24Subscriber
edited December 2017 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
2/5 in Columbus. Villain 1 is one of the more solid regulars in the game. As far as I know a deep thinker and very aggressive but we have rarely battled together.

Villain 1 is UTG+1 (Ihave already seen him raised JTos from this position) effective stacks $1500
Villain 2 is BB
Villain 3 is CO
Hero is SB with KsTs

Villain 1 opens to $15 UTG+1 Co calls I complete in SB and BB completes

Flop is KhTh3d

I bet out $45 with top two as I expect this to get checked through a lot, and its a line that I think the main villain could see as fishy

Villain 2 folds, Villian 1 calls and villain 3 folds.

Turn is a blank, I believe a 4 or 5 suit doesn’t matter, I bet $125 and villain calls

River is Ace of hearts, the worst card I could possibly see. I think for a bit and check and villian takes his time and counts out a stack a few times and finally bets out $350. Hero?


I am having a hard time putting him on hearts unless he has exactly the royal flush. AK maybe, possibly QJ going for value? It’s a pretty big bet here and not sure a hero call is ever good here.

Comments

  • MonadPrimeMonadPrime Posts: 803Member
    Tough spot. You'd expect Kx to check back, but I think he has more AQ/AJ in their range than you'd think to balance out QJ/AK, so a thin call is arguable. Fold is also valid but I think pretty weak/tight generally speaking.
  • abstractls Posts: 24Subscriber
    Sorry I corrected the flop, it was two hearts on the flop.
  • z7 Posts: 219Subscriber
    Well I think this is a fold if it wasn’t the Ah you could be more likely to be good here. But hearts QJ AA AK AT all got there. So sucks but I think it’s a fold. Like if it was a 7h etc you could call here maybe. But yeah.


    I also think if he’s opening as wide as JToff in UTG+1 this is a perfect spot for a 3-bet

  • CrushLiveDegensCrushLiveDegens Posts: 63SubscriberProfessional
    edited December 2017
    First reaction is that this indeed is the worst card in the deck. However, I would expect a very aggressive player to raise QJhh/J9hh on the flop. Also if he's good he's probably raising his low quality draws like QJo and baby hearts. He can't have A3hh which is good for you. Some guys would take this line with JJ/QQ and turn it into a bluff here, especially with a, I know I would. Because this appears to be the scariest possible card, I expect a good player to turn a lot of hands into bluffs. I think his most likely value hands are AT/AK but IDK if AT even bets this particular river. I probably toss in a call here and expect to be good at least 1/3 of the time.
  • abstractls Posts: 24Subscriber
    I think my lead out on the flop is enough to possibly keep QJo from reraising, it wouldn't make sense to have much fold equity for him. His bet is so large that I feel like it's squarely a bluff or a huge hand. Very confused for sure
  • Rysher8 Posts: 234Subscriber
    Hey Abstract,

    If your read here is that this is squarely a bluff or a monster (and I tend to agree with you) then this might have to be a fold. The question becomes what bluffs does he have? AA that doesn't raise on the flop gets there, same with AK, QJ gets there, all hearts get there. I mean he would need to be calling two streets as a float with JJ/QQ or some kind of naked gutshot for you to be ahead--and then chose to use the pocket pairs as a bluff. I'm having trouble finding a case for a call.
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,263Subscriber
    It's a polarizing bet. You just need to construct a call 2 streets and bet the river as a bluff range for his hand.
    AT (6)
    AK (6)
    FD ~(15)
    QJ 15

    TOTAL 42 bad

    KQ, KJ, K9s (14)
    Spazz (6) 10% of all combos
    TOTAL 20 good

    It's a zero EV call if I include the spazz. Maybe he has AA

    But I think it's a fold.... Most of those strong combos get weighted down in this spot.
  • CrushLiveDegensCrushLiveDegens Posts: 63SubscriberProfessional
    edited December 2017
    Regarding the flushdraw combos: There are only 11 possible combos of connected or 1 gap [54s-QJs, 64s-J9s]. You could add in Q9 and J8 for a total of 13 but I can't imagine any more 2 gappers in a reasonable UTG+1 opening range. I really don't expect most players to be opening every single one of those combos UTG so I would discount at least 20% of those so 10 combos max. I would also expect some of those combos to raise the flop sometimes, I'd guess at least another 20% leaving us with at most 8 combos of flushes which seems somewhat high but reasonable.

    Regarding the QJ combos. I wouldn't expect most players to open all 12 combos of QJo UTG+1, I would reduce that to maybe 3 combos max. So that is a total of 6 combos when you include the other 3 combos of QJs that isn't hearts. (Although realistically QJ is going to fold turn some times for this sizing but we'll give the benefit of doubt and not discount further)

    He obviously can play AK like this, although I would think he raises flop some percentage of the time, maybe 33%. So I would give him 6 of the 9 combos of AK.

    Of the 3 possible combos of AA, I would generously give him 1 combo that would just play it as a calldown on flop/turn.

    Also I really don't expect AT to bet this river, it seems quite thin (especially with this sizing).

    So this is a total of 21 value combinations and we need ~32% equity. If we can come up with 10 or more combos of bluffs it's a call.


    Edit: I just noticed that he's opening JTo in this position so maybe he has more combos of QJo but I'm not going to change the numbers above or below because other arguments could be made that either increases his bluffs or decrease his value hands and it would probably be a wash anyway. Plus I'm lazy and I don't want to go back and edit 2 posts.
  • CrushLiveDegensCrushLiveDegens Posts: 63SubscriberProfessional
    edited December 2017
    As far as bluffs go, this is going to be player dependant. But you say this guy is a deep thinker and very aggressive so I would definitely give him credit for bluffing with any hand that contains Q or J. So that means 2 combos each of KQ and KJ. I think he could also call flop/turn with QQ/JJ sometimes planning to turn it into a bluff; 6 combos total. Now if he is capable of floating 2 streets with AQ/AJ with a heart then that gives us another 6 possible combinations.

    Now, as per my previous post, we need to find at least 10 bluff combos. Of the hands that contain Q or J he, definately imo, can play the 4 combos of KQ/KJ like this. That leaves 12 combinations of QQ/JJ/AQ/AJ and he needs to have 6 of those. The question now boils down to: does this player show up to the river (and bluff) with those hands at least 50% of the time?

    Edit: Realized I miscounted bluff combos above (edited).
  • abstractls Posts: 24Subscriber
    I ultimately decided on a fold for one main reason, even though I know about him, we don’t have much history ourselves. It would be a bold bluff into a player he doesn’t know can fold. I ran through much of what everyone has said here and I appreciate the feedback as I wanted to confirm my thinking. It is somewhat close but I leaned more towards fold in this spot.
  • JKH Posts: 819Subscriber
    edited December 2017
    There are no hands u beat that he is betting for value. He needs to be bluffing 1/3 of the time to make the call profitable. Unless u think he has an abnormally high bluff frequency or make a really big live read this is a fold imo.
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