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$1/3 Bad Fold?

FuriosusFuriosus Posts: 21SubscriberProfessional
$1/3 NLHE at Derby Lane. $500 cap game. $400 effective stacks.

Villain is a good winning player. He is a decent hand reader, and is able to put pressure on people in the rights spots. I have seen him three be squeeze, preflop, in very good spots. He has also been at the table long enough to realize that I have been playing very tight.

Villain UTG open raises to $12. There are four callers, including the small blind.
I decide to complete in the BB with Ah3h. We go to the flop six ways.

The villian then makes to comment, "Well, my aces are no longer a statistical favorite against this many people!"

POT = $72

FLOP is Ad4c3c

SB checks

I bet $50

Villain, who is next to act, raises to $150. It then folds back to me.

I was tempted to call or push all in, but then I remembered what he said before the flop. At the time of the comment, it seemed like he was genuinely frustrated at getting five callers. Additionally, since he was next to act, his hand had to be pretty strong.

After long deliberation, I ended up folding.

How bad was my fold?

Comments

  • ohsnapzbrah Posts: 549Subscriber
    We have to look at this from a statistical point of view. There is one AA combo, one 33 combo, and 3 44 combos. In addition, there is only 1 A4s combo. Note that AQcc, AKcc, AJcc, etc are all out there.

    It's also odd for villain to mention AA before the flop. If you had AA, would you want to bring attention to that possibility? Not usually. We also donk bet. That's often viewed as a weak line to take. In this instance, a donk bet feels right as it is going to be difficult for this opponent to cbet this multiway.

    I'd jam. His strong hands are just too unlikely, and there are probably more Ax hands than hands that beat us.
    by 1CycleV
  • MonadPrimeMonadPrime Posts: 790Member
    edited December 2017
    Call or jam. Since he's winning/thinking I'm more likely to call & not let AK/AQ fold to a shove. Ignore the table talk without history.
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 1,956Subscriber
    Easy fold. The range you are up against has you destroyed even including A K and the like. There are so few combos of that that vs the sets and better 2 pair that this is an easy fold. If I toss in all combos of AK playing like this you are STILL behind. This is the math.

    Now the intangibles.

    You just bet large into a board that hits the preflop raiser's range into everyone 1st to act. Then the preflop raiser raises. So you think he is bluffing? Usually in these cases it's very rare for him to bluff with everyone behind.

    His table talk of AA can be ignored. But let's say he is lying. You are still behind his range removing AA. If you include some crazy bluff then you are closer to 50/50.

    He also raised more than $100 in a low stakes game. Another clue he is showing strength.

    If he bluffs you fine you lost little, but it's very unlikely in this spot. You put in 15% of your stack so far. You have to risk 100% for a borderline situation.

    You are also OOP.

    This isn't high stakes poker. These guys aren't making fancy plays thinking about equity, combos, ranges. Most of them are ABC players vs a field of unsophisticated superstitious players.
  • Sonny Posts: 153Subscriber
    I dunno. I think this is probably more of a call or shove. I really don't see many sets in his range. We block AA somewhat, plus his comment about actually having AA leads me to believe he doesn't have it. Not only that but I think a certain amount of the time hes just going to flat with AA since he has the board pretty crushed and might want our hero to keep barrelling. He's not always going to flat with top set, but I think he does maybe 1/4 of the time. I don't realistically see sets of 4's or 3's in his range. We block 3's and on top of that most $1/3 players don't open low pocket pairs utg.
    I really think he is probably overplaying a strong Ace here. Since he opened utg he should have a strong range, so I can see him having AK or AQ here. AXcc isn't great for us, but we still are narrowly a head.
  • FuriosusFuriosus Posts: 21SubscriberProfessional
    It is hard to explain, but I have a lot of experience interviewing people tell a lot of lies. When the villain made his statement preflop, there appeared to be no attempt at sarcasm or deception. It was if he was a simply stating a well known statistical fact about his hand.

    I either made the best soul read of the year, or I am a complete donkey and made a bad fold. LOL

    No need to feel bad for me though. I played three days in a row, before flying home, and made a very nice profit!



    .



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