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Holy moly variance a rolly

On Bovada I have done incredibly well for years. But this year I have been on a negative EV downswing I have never experienced. I had one up period for 2 months.

Between both limits and 41k hands I am down 24 buy ins in -EV. And still profitable.

-20 BIs @ $100 NL FR in -EV
-4 BIs @ $50 NL FR in -EV

Yes, yes 41k isn't much for a year but I transitioned more to live play. And you can only 4 table on Bovada. But consider that playing 4 tables increases your win rate with notes and observation. I'm blown away that I am actually up for the year averageing 4bb/100 between both limits. They both have very similar winrates. Only slightly different @ $50 NL due to rake.

I import the hands into HM2 via a converter.


  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,513Subscriber
    2018 same shit 1st month. Never seen anything like this in my life. Now running 12 of 14 months bad.
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,513Subscriber
    I am seriously starting to think I am riding a long, very long, the longest, curve of bad variance live @ 2/5. I record information on my play and my hands to keep my sanity. Unlike FreeLunch which advises against keeping track of made hands I can directly see what % my hands are winning so it affects my confidence less.

    As of this date after a good 4 years @ 2/5 I am making $20 an hour. My 2 largest contributors for my low winrate are the following.

    Sets are winning less than 50% of the time
    Double draws or large combo hands are hitting less than 25% of the time.

    2nd largest is the flush cooler factor. I have more flush coolers (1st to 2nd NF) live than I do online which is mind blowing to me.

    Then there is the frustration that impacts my play.

    And the variance live is a longer time run that online when you consider hands per time. 2000 hours players ~33k hands. Yea I play part time live.

    Online I have had a 40k run of pure bad variance with a -10 BI downswing impacting my winrate down to +4bb/100. I play exclusively full ring online. But the rest of the time I do very well for myself.

    I also play 1/2 when it is deep. I run $30 an hour there. I have way more hours there though and I only play deep tables.
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,513Subscriber
    So 2018 Bovada. Break even sets running below pair, big draws below par.

    Today... literally 1st hand KK in BB into AA from MP
    8th hand AA shoves flop someone calls on a draw hits I lose and he only had 6 outs.
    15th hand get KK from BUT runs into AA from BB.

    All in 10m WTF!?!?!
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,513Subscriber
    edited October 2018
    So far for live play in 2018 I am -$100 an hour @ 2/5 and +$30 an hour @ 1/2.
    I mostly play 1-2 times a week on the weekends. I'm just wowed.
    So far this entire year if I had not been at a casino I'd say there was some cheating going on.

    Last week was the same group of clowns who limp overplayed big pairs at my table from the last time. I only lost $350 and I was surprised I didn't lose more. No big pots, no hands, and when I did get a good hand I didn't hit and couldn't bluff 3 people. Drained away in 5 hours of play winning only one all in vs a $250 short stack and a couple small pots I bluffed at.

    This Friday - Nightmare in Elm Street

    @2/5 $1000 cap. I buy in for $600 because my confidence is low due to this year being exactly what the title suggests

    Last night I lost my 1st stack bluffing in a spot where there is no way I could be bluffing vs a competent villain I have history with that I have never been caught bluffing when I was all in. I always had it vs him in our previous history. He snap called a 3b shove post flop with TPWK. I read his hand exactly for what it was when he raised me. When the hand was over he claimed he couldn't fold due to pot odds. Really? 1.5:1 is pot odds with TPWK?? Competent player downgraded in status.

    2nd stack lost. Player raises, 2 callers, I call OTB 7 7 FLOP 7 3 2 - PFR bets, Call, fold, I raise, PFR back ships all in. Fold.... I call..... He has A Q ..... diamond hits river. CHIPS!!! I changed tables because the player on my left that just won this pot wouldn't shut the fuck up after he won and he talks IN ALL CAPS WHEN HE IS WINNING!!!!!!!! CHIPS!!!!

    3rd stack lost. I 3b a player with JJ, flopped top set. He overplayed XRAI on the flop with a pair of QQs, I sing call while rainbows bloom out of my head and happy rainbow sprinkles music emits from the dancing unicorns on the rainbow. He hits a 2 outer OTT. The music changes to the Adam's Family and a rain cloud over my head, all the unicorns get the plague and die. CHIPS!!!

    4th stack lost. I flop 2 pair vs a very sticky player in the BB after raising from HJ. A 6 on A 6 5 X-POT-C, 9 X-OVERPOT 1.5x - C he never folds an ace, 2 X-ALLIN (2/5psb left). He sighs takes time and calls. I have a 5....... Dealer scoops the chips to give to me....... then he shows his hand..... and a flush showing T 5

    How I didn't snap I don't know. I literally said what the fuck? and even the players at the table had a look a painful look on their face of WTF?! I promptly got up and left without much of a word. All this in 80m.

    I am in the black hole Gargantua from Interstellar without Matthew McConaughey to save me.
  • neverlearn2 Posts: 2,862Subscriber
    sorry fuzzy. and 1st! what a lonely thread on top of that, beats all around!!!!!!

  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,513Subscriber
    edited October 2018
    All of this is at one particular casino. If I have a winning sessions it's small and by bluffing. Rarely if I get it all in I win ahead. My set winrate there has dropped to 38%. Hard Rock I do fine.

    I go to Hard Rock and it feels normal. I've had great days, good days, bad days. But the Isles..... man I don't believe in luck but the Isles sure feels like it's working against my mojo. I only play when the shit players are there too. This year I have only played there and I'm down $100 an hour due to basically the above.

    I have 2 different slots in my poker sheet for Isles and Hard Rock for all the stakes I play. Isles I have a 40% winrate. Hard Rock a 65% winrate per session. Just weird man. Sadly Hard Rock is twice the distance.

    Anyways this thread is more for me to vent my frustrations. So I don't expect comments. Next time Hard Rock.
  • neverlearn2 Posts: 2,862Subscriber
    im more in awe of ur note taking skill. i really wish i was more diligent here with notes and stats but cant seem to be able to do that consistently while playing a good game.
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,513Subscriber
    I literally do it to keep my sanity. Because if I just see a naked -$100 an hour I am thinking it is me.

    I keep track of VPIP and and all in pots with what equity I have. I know FreeLunch thinks its counter productive but I think if I can actually measure where I am losing from then I know if it's me or not. If I have a shit winrate and I am winning more than my fair share of big pots I am doing something wrong. In this case at the Isles I am running shit bad in large pots and it shows in my winrate of $20 an hour. I make more @ 1/2 than at the Isles 2/5. I know bluffing isn't a problem for me :D

    I keep notes on players too.
  • neverlearn2 Posts: 2,862Subscriber
    the work seems to be paying off for u man.
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,513Subscriber
    So far 5th session in a row lost. Started off down 1.5 buy ins in 90m as this one player flopped FDs every time he was heads up with me and for 4 hands in a row hit every single one. He did beat me in a 5th pot when he flopped trip Kings but I lost the least.

    Each hand I hit went like this.
    I FLOP TPGK, I pot it. He snap calls (realized this is 100% a draw always),
    TURN I pot it or overpot it, he snap calls
    RIVER 3rd flush card comes, he goes into painful acting mode, then shrugs and overships the pot. I fold someone hands him an Oscar. I know this is the case because I saw him do this same thing twice and get called twice before. Once I hit 2 pair OTT.

    One of the hands was really interesting because I had hit trips in a limped pot. There was a bet and raise in front and the player again snap called. The better was weak and indicating fold, the raised I was fairly certain had TPGK AQ or KQ. So I made a decision to delay bet/raise to the turn because I knew Capt FD had a FD and the raiser had TP. The stacks where such to where neither could fold the flop if I raised or the turn if I raise. So I just called knowing I had to fold if a spade or Q came on the turn. Sure enough spade... Capt FD goes into his acting mode and stacks the other guy with A Q and the odds were not enough knowing a Q was dead for me to call. I fold and it didnt matter a 4th spade came on the river and I would have lost to both players.

    One hand I will post which was interesting.

    Eventually I swapped tables because there was a larger stack table next to mine. I was down 1.25 BIs at this point. Worked my way up close to even. Then the key hand of the night happened. Table was full of some really terrible players.

    Straddled pot, limps around. The limpers were mostly short. So I raised AA from the SB to 1/6 their stacks. If they all called it didn't matter because I would have had 1.5 PSB left on the flop. The hand played itself. Well they ALL CALLED. The BUTTON was a tighter player so I knew his call was pretty much exactly a pair thinking he had set mining odds.

    FLOP comes 662r - I X, they all X to the guy OTB who bets 2/3psb. I call, rest fold.
    TURN 3 - I just put it in. He calls with 22. I lost a massive pot. Down 2 BIs again. WTF can I do?

    Bluff caught in a medium pot on the river as I induced it. I knew the player was weak and I wasn't getting a bet from him but he is known to bluff if checked to.

    Some small value bets with TP. But what got me even was 2 large bluffs, and a small one.

    HAND #1 straddled pot - limps around I check T 7 in BB. (4 to the flop)
    FLOP Q 5 2 - I notice one limper not interested anymore, I pot it because I have been potting all my value hands. This will also allow me to price my bet on the turn and get to see 5 cards. The pot is getting large and players are uncomfortable. All fold to a tight player OTB who snap calls and doesnt look at his cards. Hmmm.
    TURN 8 - I bet 3/5, he snap calls. Again doesn't look at his cards. Normally at this point I will give up because so much of his range is TPGK. But in this case because he didn't take time to think about anything and since I have only shown value I highly suspected he had the same FD with higher cards.
    RIVER 9 - I bet 1/2p, he snap open folds in disgust A 2

    HAND #2 straddled pot - limps around, I raise enormous A K ... get one tight player caller. Ahh there is the pair to set mine or a possible suited paint hand. Due to his position there is no way he has limped big Ace paint... he would have raised it.

    FLOP Q Q 9 - he bets 2/5p. Due to the SPRs I decided not to raise here as it would put me in a weird spot OTT. I think and call. Let's see what he does on the turn. This tight player tends to play weak.

    TURN 3 - he checks doesn't look happen. I bet 2/3psb he folds.

    A few more hands not much changes but after 6.5 hours I am mentally tired. Sadly the table was good. I leave.

    Only $76 loss this time but I should have lost more if I played this more standard. That AA hand was the key hand of the night despite all the beatings. No sets, no flushes, no straights, 2 pair beat, trips beat.
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,513Subscriber
    4.5 hour session. Small loss.
    Only big pot i got bad beat.
    1 good river bluff and 1 very good lay down prevented me from losing way more.

    1 trips dry board didnt get paid limped pot
    1 two pair hand didnt het paid limped pot.

    Spent most of the session bluffing my way back to close to even.

    6th losing session in a row down $4500
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,513Subscriber
    5.5 hour session. Medium loss... Last entry.

    I worked my stack up some by winning small pots, small bluffs, and one triple barrel bluff. Losing larger pots.

    2 Key hands of the night...

    2/5 ES $375 (not me)
    3 limpers, hero raises $45 A A, Old White Man Coffee snap calls directly behind me. All the limpers call.
    $225 FLOP 9 8 6 - X, X, X, Hero checks, OWMC bets $75 (he has $255 left in a pot now of $300, fold, fold, fold, Hero XRAI, OMC snap calls with 88.

    Here was assume since VERY likely has a big pair which out numbers sets and potentially 1 combo of some combo draw with stacks this short I decided to X and see the action changing my relative position. Since I hold 2 aces his combos of AK are only 8 vs the 24 combos of TT+. And yes he flats KK. The hand plays itself heads up vs this guy when he calls 1/8th of his stack to set mine. There was one other player in the hand that if they continued I could easily fold my AA

    So once again I work my way back up to a positive stack.

    Villain in this next hand is another fish OMC. He has been my nemesis the entire time so far. I raise black AK, he calls in a 3 way pot then donks out at me on a red board. I fold. He does this repeatedly in my 3 way pots. Once I saw him call a large raise with K8o and do the same trick but this time someone called 2 of his bets. Might have been K8s and I misread it. His pattern is really fucking bizarre. I caught him in another hand bluffing on the river. I called him with 3rd pair vs his Ace high.

    2/5 ES $450 (villain)

    2 limpers, I raise $35 A Q (this table has been calling large raises with weak hands so I have been raising more preflop), tight older players calls OTB, V calls in the BB, rest fold.

    $115 FLOP A Q T - V donks out for $50, I raise $150, BUT folds, V calls uncomfortably.

    I took some time to gauge the player on my left and his action before deciding to do. He gave off tells of discomfort sliding his cards slightly forward and I suspected he was folding. V can have a wide range of hands here since he is donk betting every fucking flop into me. I did not think KJ would bet this small on this board or at least XR.

    $415 TURN 8 - V checks and looks incredibly uncomfortable. Now I am fairly sure he didn't have a FD. He has $305 left. I put him all in because I don't think he can fold A x K or 2 pair. He didn't ship the flop so he doesn't have KJ. He calls, has QQ. He leaves after this hand and my blood pressure skyrockets. I've been very nice at the table BTW hiding my frustration inside.

    Still down only $200 at this point, AGAIN. But I am fuming beyond belief. It takes me winning a dozen pots with complex maneuvering and bluffing to build up a stack then in one large pot I lose it all and have to start over. Same story all year.

    Rest of the night my luck turned sour post flop. Bad flops, fish calling with naked aces to spike an ace, couldn't bluff, no large hands, etc. Slowly drained away.

    The final hand was me having trips hitting the top of this kid's range that he of course slowplayed on a board he shouldn't have. I lost the least in the hand as the kid didn't value bet enough of his nuts. I internally snapped and left down 1.5 BIs. I made a decision to give up live play for a few months.

    I only get to play on the weekends because of family responsibilities. But this is my 6th losing session in a row within a year. I have more large bluffs this year than large won pots. If I didn't bluff so much I would be losing more. This is the 1st year I am actually down for the year in 8 years. Mostly my losses are in large pots ahead or with very high equity that simply lost by the river. With some scattering of redonkulous coolers. Needless to say it is frustrating.

    I am leaving live play for several months because currently my level of contempt for my opposition is really high and affecting my game. I am making small mistakes I would normally not make that most people wouldn't even notice. I am not paying attention to behavior as often as I should and it's one of my talents, along with observation, and table talk.

    Now why should this even impact me it's silly. I am a good player and I have made over 6 figures in my lifetime playing poker online, live, SNGs, MTTs ~12.5 hours a week. Every once in a while someone on the site sends me a compliment. My family has literally drained my bankroll, not their fault though. One year we had 7 medical procedures, another year a lawsuit, another year a failed business, another year loss of work, this year was a string of catastrophes that hit us all at once that cost a lot of money to correct. Bye bye bankroll again.

    I quit online for a while to play live and other reasons. But recently I am back on again after cashing out to fund live play. I had all these poker points, used them to play SNGs, won some money. And now I am back building up an online cash bankroll. Online I don't have contempt for players because it's I don't see them. So my new goal is $0 to $10,000 online.

    A few lessons to take from this for anyone reading.

    As Andrew Brokos said in his material. If you plan to play poker seriously and don't have a bankroll you can't play effectively. I am a prime example of that despite my skill. I should be playing 5/10 but I can barely play 2/5 comfortably if at all. I don't even have a bankroll for 1/2.

    2nd lesson is the effects of variance. While I only play on the weekends and occasionally 2x a weekend the # of hands is so tiny compared to the variance. Online I have had the equivalent of 1,000 live hours of extreme variance. Players can have twice this much. This year I didn't play many hours live comparatively so of course the variance is high. So if you play just on the weekends and have a frustrating year realize that the physical number of hands you have played this year is a blip on the variance ride.

    3rd lesson is to realize when the above is affecting your emotional state and it's time to take a break and do something constructive and positive to regain your balance. Do things that will make you succeed if the chips are down. Start with something simple like organizing your home, painting a wall, washing and waxing your car. Something that you can easily accomplish and see the reward of your work to reset your brain. Keep doing these little things that improve your life that you can control without variance and it will improve your confidence and mood.

    So I am done for now with live. I will keep posting replies to hands.
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