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Wanting another perspective on my maybe poker career.

Hello! I attached my results for the 2017 year and was hoping to get some opinions on my maybe poker career. At the moment i work a full time job which i hate and can't wait to quit. It pays 50K nothing stellar but decent. Im currently playing part time and on schedule to go full pro in Aug 2018, ill have about a 60-70K roll. Monthly expenses won't be more than $1200. I plan to move to a casino up north which is where i have the biggest sample by far this year as a baby step into my poker career. I will mostly be grinding out the only game that runs full time which is 1/3 NL. My plan was to Average 70 or more hours a week for a year. The goal is to Average $28 an hour for a Rough $100K for my first year and move up from there. Im 19 at the moment figured since i didn't study much at all during 2017 and have only been playing seriously this year that i have allot of room to improve my game between now and Aug to make this plan bullet proof! Does this plan seem reasonable? Or am i out of my league here? Figured since im 19 and miserable here at my current job that it can't go too wrong? Let me know what you guys think, Thanks!
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Comments

  • workinghard Posts: 1,573Subscriber
    I think you have enough of a roll to just go straight to the 2/5 limit games. Overall, you'll find a much better return on your money. The rake is a lot lower/pot.
    It's great that you've had a very profitable first year playing poker. I'd say you need at least another 1,000 hours of play to get a firmer sense of what your expected hourly is. However, you're young with minimal expenses so I'd say if you want to take a shot, go for hit. Just be sure to have some idea what your backup plan is if you burn out of poker or things don't go according to plan. Don't burn any bridges. Also, $50/yr at 19 years old is super solid. Perhaps look into a part time job to allow more time to play poker?
  • Jesse_The_Suit Posts: 493SubscriberProfessional
    Obviously I already chimed in on your other thread with my two cents about leaving the work force. I'd recommend you think hard about why you hate your current job and whether you could change jobs to another one you might like. I certainly have had jobs I hated, and I wouldn't recommend staying at a job you truly hate unless your other options are truly awful.

    I would also seriously reduce your expected poker volume. I am not a full time player by any means so I am just passing along second hand information, but Rob talks a number of times on his podcast about how of all the guys he knew on vegas, only like 1 steadily puts in close to 2k hours a year. Your goal of 70 a week would put you at over 3k. There probably a person on earth who has done that, but I wouldn't plan on the assumption you going to be him/her.

    On the bright side, with your killer win rats you only need to log like 100 hours a month to keep your head well above water. Good luck!
  • TanyaTheEvil Posts: 54Subscriber
    My plan was to go to 2/5 but i have a really small sample in those games. Its not about the money for me to play them, its that i don't have as much opportunity to play them. I live in Nashville and have to drive 2.5 hours every Friday to Indiana to play poker. I normally just play a straight 20-30 hour session or until my caffeine pills start wearing off. Only game that spreads there consistently is 1/3NL. Only time i play 2/5 is when i go to South Florida for family. Figured its better to start at a game where i have te biggest and decent sample size since the difference between being semi pro and full pro isn't really that huge but for your first year would feel like a whale on your shoulders. And about the part time job i think that would be -EV. Maybe get paid $10 an hour while i could be getting $28? And not just that but the commitment is what would hurt the most, I thought about it but i said its either go big or go home, in a sense its either All In or Fold.
  • MXRider Posts: 53Subscriber
    At 19, and low responsibilities, if you want to go for it, do it.

    With that said, 70 hours a week is a lot! That is more than double the highest number of hours you put in during a single month. As much of a poker nut that i am, i don't think i could do that on a consistent basis.

    I would figure out your living expenses for the next 6 months and put that amount aside from your bankroll and see if you can live off of your poker winnings without touching that money.

    Good luck!
  • neverlearn2 Posts: 2,862Subscriber
    50/hour at ur age and u hate your job.

    Good luck on keeping your vices in check.
    by 1Clock
  • Jesse_The_Suit Posts: 493SubscriberProfessional
    That would be an upside to playing 70 hours a week: no time for vices.
  • TanyaTheEvil Posts: 54Subscriber
    edited December 2017
    I only hate my job cause i know that the most ill ever make here is 60K. At the moment i work 50hours a week + the 20-30 i spend playing poker so in a sense im already at 70 hours a week. Thats why i believe thats possible. I think of it like this, when i leave this 50/60k job im not leaving it to make 100k. If i was i dont think it would be the worst decision ever but not the greatest. Risking 50/60k to win 100k? But there's implied odds, let's say things go according to but we hit Bumps in the road and end up only booking $80k the first year, but allot of time has past and i dont think i can become a worst poker player by then so let's assume i study hard and get better every day. Now comfortably sitting on a decent Roll and ready to move up to 5/10NL. Let's say im mediocre in these games and i only manage to scrap up $70 an hour, i imagine in Vegas/LA its hard to put in 60 hours a week of good qaulity Games. But i believe 40 is definitely possible. 40 x $70 x 52= $145,600. So its really more like 50K to win 150k to make it simple. Does this make the plan sound better? If i stay at my job right now the chance of me making 150k is zero. Thanks
  • BlackBoxEquity Posts: 165Subscriber
    Only thing I will add is...50 hours/week at normal job + 20-30 of poker <> 70 hours/week of poker. When I "work" 50 hour weeks, there is a lot of downtime, meetings that don't require me to be engaged, emailing, surfing, etc. If you expect to play your "A" game for 70/hours week...good luck.
  • alambic49 Posts: 87Subscriber
    Don't forget that you need time to study to improve your game. 1-2 hours of study for each session you do seems right to me (previous session hand review, listen to new concepts, read some hands history on forums, etc). So already it should be 8-12 hours of study a week.

    Otherwise, you are young, why not trying!
  • Jesse_The_Suit Posts: 493SubscriberProfessional
    Yeah, I hadn't thought about the age thing. The keep a real job crowd is almost certainly a bunch of old dudes like me.
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,546Subscriber
    You have 1000 hours? That's ~30k-33k hands. That is nothing on the radar.

    I'll put it in perspective. From 2014 to 2015 I kept ever improving on Bovada to the point I had a top notch winrate ending in 2016. 2017 so far I have barely been making it with very little profit. I am incredibly well under EV in every category. And this is way more hands than you played.

    Go to pokerdope and punch in expected calculations for variance. You will see how far of a stretch it can extend.

    Now lets put this in real perspective. Lets say you play 2/5 and make $40 an hour. You play 4 sessions of 6 hours each during the week. That's 24 hours = ~$960 on average. Losing just one more all in For a 100BB stack than you should in this 24 hour period costs you your winnings. Just one .... single..... all in for stacks. Let's say this happens every other week. Now your income is cut in 1/2.

    And playing poker is not all fun and games. Sometimes I don't go play because I don't feel well. Have a headache, family has irritated me. We have some bad news. We aren't all 100% tip top ready 100% of the time.

    If you have plenty saved, or are retirement ready, then play. If you have money to live then play if you want.

    But also keep in mind if you quit your job, then play poker for 2-3 years and don't make it how will you explain the gap if you go back to work? What skills and experience have you lost? If you work in I.T. for example people won't hire you because you haven't been around.

    I know I sound like I am being negative but I am just making sure you consider everything before taking this leap. I see regs come and go. As one CLP subscriber told me

    Many of the regs you see that are bad just experienced positive variance. You don't see the many others that failed.
  • pokertime Posts: 2,194Subscriber
    70 hour of poker a week may not be as fun as you think espesically during a downswing so I wouldn’t push myself too hard on that goal. Also playing full time means playing non-peak hours which may mean a lower win rate during that time. However, you are young and you have money saved so stay honest with yourself and contstatly evaluate as you go along. GL!
  • TanyaTheEvil Posts: 54Subscriber
    As for the peak hour concern ive done some scouting missions during the week and have found the Games just as soft as on the weekends. I don't understand your math @Fuzzypup what do you mean by losing $500 every other week? Im aware mistakes happen in poker and im not immune from them and part of poker is plugging up leaks. Everytime i lose a pot i feel i didn't have to i evaluate the hand and learn from it so it dosent happen again as we all. I look at it as poker Tuition. But i dont see how it would cut your winrate in half if your constantly learning and improving your game. Im not saying it dosent affect your winrate it does but losing a couple hundred here and there is factored into my winrate. I Rember one day this year where i basically gave away 2K in a session. It affected my win rate as i could have 2K more now but it didnt Crush me since i identified the problem and corrected it. If i wasnt learning and was the poker player i am today from the start of this year i believe my winrate would be even higher. Online poker is allot tougher than Live and thus you will experince More variance. I experienced my fare amount of variance this year i believe as im in a $1800 downswing right now but have found them to not last that long and before i knew it i was back on the upswing. To be fare allot of my variance is minimized visually due to the fact that i play 24 hour sessions in which ill be down 1500 and make a come back to being up a 1000 and that never makes the graph. Maybe im still too new to this game to have properly gone through variance? Appreciate all the Feedback everyone! Thanks.
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,546Subscriber
    So lets say you play 10 all in pots in a 2 week stretch an EV 70%. You should win 70% of the time. 7 of10 allins.

    All i,am saying that it just takes winning only 6 of 10 to damage that winrate tremendously. Just a slight shift in variance drastically changes winnings

    Variance is a lot more than people think and can extend over 1-2 years live even.

    Just have enough money to compensate for variance.

    I know tbis from experience and data
  • Jesse_The_Suit Posts: 493SubscriberProfessional
    I wonder Fuzzy, what's your worst live downswing? I'd think that downswings could last longer(as measured in hands) online as compared to live--just because live edges are often so much bigger.
  • TanyaTheEvil Posts: 54Subscriber
    Ok now i see what your saying, i understand what you mean, i Rember many $1500 pots that i had 70-80% and lost a bunch of those which if i had won just 2 of them it would've boosted my winrate by a decent amount. But to compensate for variance you just need to be well rolled right? And in the long run it'll all just even out? @Fuzzypup i know this is off this topic but are you an Online Grinder? I ask because i play on ACR and find myself not being able to beat the 10NL games. Do you think that being an online reg and being able to beat these though online games translate to being a better live poker player? The only reason i play on ACR is because i feel the investment in time and effort to beat these tough online games will pay off allot on the live felt. And as to what @Jesse_The_Suit said what is your worst downswing and over what sample size in hours? And since like he said edges are much bigger in the live realm dosent that decrease the affects of variance? The same way a player with a 5bb/hour Winrate will have more variance than a player with 10bb/hour.
  • JKH Posts: 835Subscriber
    Another factor to consider is that the US economy is really strong right now meaning that poker games in the US are softer than they can be expected to be when the economy flips.
    Tougher games will mean a person has to be a better player to maintain there winrate.
    I would recommend taking this into consideration before making a large life decision.
    How hard poker games is varies significantly with the economy.
  • TanyaTheEvil Posts: 54Subscriber
    The thought of the economy has crossed my mind now and then but i think its really minimal, i was 9 at the time so i wouldn't know but was a 1/2 or 2/5 Game tougher in 2008? I would figure the Games right now are the toughest they've ever been. Is that a correct assumption?
  • sivaddivad Posts: 341Subscriber
    I'm sure you will do fine from a monetary standpoint. You're well rolled enough, and live is soft enough where you can literally go years without hitting a major downswing.

    Remember that career choices are about so much more than money. Balancing personal relationships--especially if you have a significant other--can be very difficult with the emotional ups and downs and weird schedule of poker. Also, if you are like me, winning at poker will never really give you a sense of accomplishment (at least not a lasting one)--which you can get from other careers that you may enjoy.

    Also, you appear to be a sharp kid, so your options are more robust than just (a) staying at dead end job or (b) pro poker career. You could play poker while going to school, or while trying your hand at a job you think you might enjoy.

    My recommendation is to take a more holistic view of all of your potential options and write down the pros and cons of each from your perspective.

    If you do go ahead with the poker career, at the very least make sure your life isn't only about poker and that you are taking care of your health and doing at least some activities away from casinos.

    Best of luck!
    by 1JKH
  • ohsnapzbrah Posts: 632Subscriber
    I made this decision about 5 months ago. I did this after beating online poker and then having an observed winrate of about $40/hr over 800 hours live (mix of 1/2 and 2/5).

    I was in a dead end job at a company I thought, and still think, will be exiting my region fairly soon. I saved up roughly 7 months living expenses, separate from my bankroll.

    Given everything I just said, since turning pro I've had a $13/hr winrate. A lot of it is awful variance, such as getting AA all in on a 973 flop against KK $700 deep and losing both runs.

    Are you mentally prepared for that possibility?

    As for 70 hours a week, forget about it. That's 10 hours a day, 7 days a week. Or, if you're like most people and want time off, 14 hours a day for 5 days. You don't want to burn yourself out.

    Good luck with whatever you decide!
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