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450 BBs with AKo vs a super LAG in a bloated pot preflop

5/10/20, effective stacks $8870.

Villain - Super lag pro, "street poker queen." Absolutely fearless and relentless with 3b and 4bs preflop. To a point where she is quite a bit out of line. Hero has battled with her a lot recently in many 3/4/5bet pots.

Dynamics - Hero has run very well against her recently and has won a lot from her. Hero is also playing very aggressive this session and has a borderline maniacal image. We already played a big 3bet pot earlier that she won.

2 recreation players limp, Hero $150 from the SB with AKo, Villain 3bets to $550 from the straddle, and BOTH limpers call!! Hero??? Call? Fold? 4bet-fold? 4bet-call? sizing? and why?
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Comments

  • MonadPrimeMonadPrime Posts: 803Member
    I guess it's a question of 4b & collecting both limpers dead money, or just flatting & allowing all players in with weaker ranges that hopefully we dominate & can stack w/ TPTK+ in a 4 SPR pot.

    I'm usually an advocate for the aggressive dead money grab pre, especially considering main villains bluffing freq w/ their suited connectors, etc. post flop will go way down OOP 4 way, & won't get trapped w/ their Axs as much either on Axx boards, so we should be less inclined to take a flop in that case iyam, & were actually not unhappy if JTs, 76s, etc. folds their 43% equity share pre.
  • KiLeeKiLee Posts: 204Pro
    edited January 6
    MonadPrime said:
    I guess it's a question of 4b & collecting both limpers dead money, or just flatting & allowing all players in with weaker ranges that hopefully we dominate & can stack w/ TPTK+ in a 4 SPR pot.

    I'm usually an advocate for the aggressive dead money grab pre, especially considering main villains bluffing freq w/ their suited connectors, etc. post flop will go way down OOP 4 way, & won't get trapped w/ their Axs as much either on Axx boards, so we should be less inclined to take a flop in that case iyam, & were actually not unhappy if JTs, 76s, etc. folds their 43% equity share pre.
    I like your analysis. Now are you 4bet-calling or 4-bet folding? Why? And what's your sizing? Anybody have other thoughts?

  • MonadPrimeMonadPrime Posts: 803Member
    KiLee said:
    MonadPrime said:
    I guess it's a question of 4b & collecting both limpers dead money, or just flatting & allowing all players in with weaker ranges that hopefully we dominate & can stack w/ TPTK+ in a 4 SPR pot.

    I'm usually an advocate for the aggressive dead money grab pre, especially considering main villains bluffing freq w/ their suited connectors, etc. post flop will go way down OOP 4 way, & won't get trapped w/ their Axs as much either on Axx boards, so we should be less inclined to take a flop in that case iyam, & were actually not unhappy if JTs, 76s, etc. folds their 43% equity share pre.
    I like your analysis. Now are you 4bet-calling or 4-bet folding? Why? And what's your sizing? Anybody have other thoughts?

    So presumably I'd 4b to ~ $1250 if it was HU, but in an attempt to leverage more FE against the two sticky-recs, I'd probably assume going bigger to about $1600-1700 is the best route. If main villain is notoriously out-of-line, even in 4b/5b pots, then I'm not sure how we get away from our hand if we get small 5b or 5b-jammed on by her. If on the other hand, she flats & a rec springs to life with a 5b, we can probably safely fold. Finally, I'm not 100% sure whether jamming vs a small-5b from main villain, or simply calling w/ the intention of stacking off on basically 99% of flops in a 1 SPR spot vs her CBet, is optimal. I suppose it depends a bit on what her exact sizing is, but it's still not clear in my eyes regardless.
  • maphacks Posts: 1,962Subscriber
    edited January 6
    I don't like those preflop wars but we just have to 4b this hand with given dynamics. Vs 5b it gets really dicy and probably still folding. It's too good of a chance we are either ahead vs limpers when called or get a fold which is also nice (80bb uncontested pre lol) ). When squeezer calls we obviously have to be really cautious since it makes perfect sense to flat AA/KK.

    I would make it around 2,2k and puke fold vs shove unless i pick up something. Could be a 4b call as well, depending on the exact dynamic. Not able to answer this in a forum.

    Is this game in LA area? So that I can guess who the villain is..
  • alambic49 Posts: 87Subscriber
    I definitely 4bet. Around 2k. I don't want to leave the two limpers in the hand since we are likely to have a better hand but would hate them to see a flop : let's pick up the dead money now.

    Now, it is really hard, with so little info, to know what to do on a 5 et from vilain. You say she is out of line often and your image is one of a maniac.. In that case, hard to get away from the hand if you get 5bet. It would depend of what kind of tell you pick up from her sizing of 5bet. Also, what if she 5bet and you "only" call? Do we shove on any board with a A or K and fold on the other ones? Do we check raise any board? There is so much money in the pot already, it is hard to get away.

    Final answer, I 4bet to 2.2k, then call a 5bet because of the table dynamic. Re-evaluate on flop.
  • Letmewin1 Posts: 1,221Member
    edited January 6
    We have to take into consideration V post flop tendencies not just her “out of line 3/4Bets pre”, even tho there’s a decent amount of BB’s/dead money in the pot and an aggressive 4! seems atractive IMO it’s not necessarily the best option in this spot.
    I think making 2k+ is a cool sizing but it’s not getting her to fold often enough it might the other two but not her.
    Playing a bloated pot this deep with a drawing hand OOP is not my fave option especially vs a V that’s capable.
    I’m more in the call camp, the other two will/should play straight forward post and she’ll define their range for us and she might bluff A or K high boards and maybe even bet worse for value on same boards, keeping the pot manageable is not a bad thing it will let us continue on several run outs especially when/if she bets and gets two folds behind her, with us having good relative position here is a plus.
    We can get into on how we could/should split our range here but I’ll leave that to the professional
    section.

    My writing skills have gotten worse over the years, sorry.
  • maphacks Posts: 1,962Subscriber
    once we 4bet, the only 5b size will be allin fyi
  • DrSpace Posts: 712Subscriber
    edited January 6
    Pretty flexible spot with AK but awkward stacks. Depending on villain's tendencies can make a realistic case for calling or 4b folding or calling or even jamming preflop if tendencies are correct. It so depends on how the villain plays post flop and again tendencies. Going 3-4 ways with SPR of 1-1.5 is not attractive so its a sticky spot. Ive been known to jam these spots with a balanced range. AKo is in there some at least. Course I get called when I jam AA more often that one would think.
  • KiLeeKiLee Posts: 204Pro
    edited January 6
    Guys, do we realize that if we make any kind of reasonable 4bet, that once the Straddle shoves we are getting 2:1 or better? And we have 37% equity vs AK/KK+. We cannot 4bet-fold. The villain has about 0% chance of folding AK here. And by 4betting I’m leveraging stacks where I force her to make a decision for her stack. Also, @letmewin1 mentioned that 4betting is not gonna have her fold often. This is not true. The villain is 3betting very wide and light, which includes hands like AQ/JJ/TT/AJs/KQs/A5s, etc. She has way more folding hands here than most of the villains I might face in similar spots.
  • KiLeeKiLee Posts: 204Pro
    Also, if we don’t 4bet AK here, what exactly would be our 4betting range here??? Only Kk/AA??? This will make it too easy for players to play against us
  • CycleV Posts: 679Subscriber
    A 4! is clearly for value, is it not? Obv can't ever fold if we 4!, not sure how that is a question, even if her 5! range is properly tight (which it might not be). And there's zero chance I'd care is a limper wakes up and shoves, that's a mid PP (or lol AK) 99% of the time. I think the only question is sizing. Getting the limpers out of the hand is pretty important, but shoving looks weaker (I'd love a shove with AA).

    This is me just being a keyboard warrior naturally. Like I've ever had 4500 to gii.
  • KiLeeKiLee Posts: 204Pro
    So I think this hand puts us in a tough spot. On one hand, we only have $150 invested, but 4betting can commit us to playing for stacks with $8870. But on the other hand, we have a chance to win $1800 uncontested(90bbs!). So it comes down to Math. I'll make some assumptions.

    Even though the V can be VERY wide for 3betting, I'm only going to assign her 3betting range to be TT+/AQ+/AJs+/KQs/A5s which is 54 combos and is top 4.5% of her range(in reality this could be almost double).
    Then we can assume that she will NEVER 5bet bluff(I think there is SOME chance that she will, but we will assume 0%)
    and that she will only 5bet jam KK+/AK. That is 15 combos.
    So out of 54 combos, she will jam 15 combos and fold 39 combos. So she will jam 28% of the time and fold 72%.

    When she folds we win $1800 and this will happen 72% of the time.
    when she shoves and we call, we will have 37% equity vs her range. So we will have 37% equity in a pot of ($8870 x 2) +$550 +$550. $18840. So we end up with $6971. So this is akin to risking $8720(we had $150 in already, so $8870-$150) and ending up with $6971. We lose $1749 when the villain jams and we call.

    So the EV formula is (winning% X money won) - (losing% X money lost)
    (0.72 X $1800) - (0.28 X $1749) = $1296 - $490 = $806.
    We have positive EV of $806 by deciding to 4bet and calling it off. That's 40bb +EV play. And almost 10% ROI.
  • KiLeeKiLee Posts: 204Pro
    And Keep in mind that I was very conservative with my assumptions - Pretty tight 3betting range for the villain, assigning 0% bluffs for 5bets, and assuming 0% chance of her slow playing AA(this will significantly increase our equity vs her shoving range)
  • KiLeeKiLee Posts: 204Pro
    Now not to throw a wrench in the mix, but if we were to 4bet and then fold, let's see what the math looks like - In the above discussion we looked at how if we 4bet and then call it off, we are losing $1749 on the play.

    Let's say that we made a 4bet to a reasonable sizing ($2500 minimum because of the 2 callers) and then fold, we are losing $2500.

    So when we 4bet and the V shoves and we call, we lose $1749, but when we 4bet to $2500 and fold, we are losing $2500 for making that play. So we are losing MORE money by 4bet-folding.

    Then you might ask - Why not make it less than $1749 and then fold to a jam? When we make a ridiculously small 4bet with deep stacks and multiple villains in the pot, we are forcing them to call with their entire range pretty much. So we lose fold equity vs the field and we can't accomplish the original mission of the play, which is to take down the pot.

    Hopefully this will demonstrate why 4bet-calling here is more profitable than 4bet-folding.
  • maphacks Posts: 1,962Subscriber
    edited January 7
    okay you are assuming she shoves AK as well. sure then it's a call.

    I just think this is not a typical "4b light" spot (even though it's not the worst to 4b bluff a hand such as A5s here, calling is so appealing with most potential 4b bluffing hands that it's very rare to see someone 4b bluffing here IME). even with the information you gave us, I am not convinced that the 5b is that much lighter than KK+ but that's on you to decide.

    I wonder what hands you 4b bluff here (if at all?) and do you think it would be a good shove from villain with AK? I am not convinced TBH
  • KiLeeKiLee Posts: 204Pro
    This is a great spot to 4bet bluff hands like A5s. The villain is wide enough where she has a rather large folding range, so our 4bet bluffs should be very profitable. I’m 4bet-folding A5s and 4bet calling QQ+ and AK here. And no, her 5bet jamming range is not KK+. It’s possibly QQ+ and all combos of AK, and even some bluffs.
  • KiLeeKiLee Posts: 204Pro
    edited January 7
    I really don’t think that just calling the 3bet is good here. We allow 2 other players to realize their equity and we need to play vs 3 players OOP and we are forfeiting any chance of winning 90bbbs preflop uncontested. This is huge. The 2 recs who called- that’s literally $1100 of dead money. And because the 3bettor is light, she has a much wider folding range than most villains. It’s hard for me to think of a much better 4bet spot than this, to be honest.
  • KiLeeKiLee Posts: 204Pro
    And obv we have the best blockers, significantly reducing hands like AA/KK/AK from her range.
  • maphacks Posts: 1,962Subscriber
    yes I would never flat AK, but A5s are pretty attractive calling hands as well. 4b is fine ofc. nice hand, what happened?
  • MXRider Posts: 53Subscriber
    From my point of view, what range do we put the limp/3! callers on? To me, this makes the situation much more complicated and maybe (probably) I'm thinking too deeply here.
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