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*** 2/5 Flop a set/River a boat when flush comes in

ClockClock Posts: 1,064Subscriber
2/5 1K cap
V is younger Asian reg who is pretty tight, thinking player.
It looks like he's not having a great night, but he's playing very tight (and/or card dead) and mostly not involved.

HERO has great image (9/10) up huge.
I'm pretty sure V knows I'm a winning reg, so he should have respect for my game.

~1K eff
HERO raises 99 to 25 from UTG, only V calls on BU
Flop (50) - Q J 9 HERO bets 35, V calls
Turn (120) - 3 HERO bets 80, V calls
River (280) - 3

What's your play?
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Comments

  • pokertime Posts: 2,179Subscriber
    I might go a little bigger each street but it doesn’t change much. As played pot river as he should never fold a flush he was chasing. Maybe even $300. It’s whatever I think he calls.
  • neverlearn2 Posts: 2,739Subscriber
    Think we should be targeting his Qx hands here so I'd go half pot or smaller.

    If he has a flush he's raising us more than likely.
  • ClockClock Posts: 1,064Subscriber
    neverlearn2 said:
    Think we should be targeting his Qx hands here so I'd go half pot or smaller.

    If he has a flush he's raising us more than likely.
    You think he's raising what he likely perceives as good player with something like J high flush ?
  • neverlearn2 Posts: 2,739Subscriber
    edited January 11
    Should we bet large and target flushes than?

    I could be too optimistic here and think villain will but maybe ur right. He could just call with lots of flushes.

    We are saying than the few combos of flushes he has will always pay off a big bet which I agree. But how many would call a big bet with Qx?

    I think we should be betting bigger than what I originally stated but I don't think we should be potting it.
  • Beatsme Posts: 536Subscriber
    Clock said:
    neverlearn2 said:
    Think we should be targeting his Qx hands here so I'd go half pot or smaller.

    If he has a flush he's raising us more than likely.
    You think he's raising what he likely perceives as good player with something like J high flush ?
    I'm kinda on this line of thinking. Target his Qs and hope he has a flush and raises. I mean he should hane plenty of Ax suited combos as well as AKdd and AJdd. He is having a bad night so he might not feel like raising here with nut combo draws.

    And if we bet small he may think we are trying to squeeze thin value so raising may make since in his mind

  • ClockClock Posts: 1,064Subscriber
    So nobody going for x/r here?
  • pokertime Posts: 2,179Subscriber
    Not enough people bet their hand with better hands showing and/or bluff IMO. So we just have to value bet everything unless we’d have a lot of history.
  • ClockClock Posts: 1,064Subscriber
    pokertime said:
    Not enough people bet their hand with better hands showing and/or bluff IMO. So we just have to value bet everything unless we’d have a lot of history.
    So if you're in his shoes and you river a flush, and you're checked too...are you saying you're not gonna bet?


  • pokertime Posts: 2,179Subscriber
    Clock said:
    pokertime said:
    Not enough people bet their hand with better hands showing and/or bluff IMO. So we just have to value bet everything unless we’d have a lot of history.
    So if you're in his shoes and you river a flush, and you're checked too...are you saying you're not gonna bet?


    I can’t know how the guy thinks I’m just making generalities. It depends on the value of his flush first. Many non nut flushes will just check back afraid. Even the nut flush may bet small then fold to CR. I just feel the jig is up if we CR so I’d rather bet the amount I want and not risk him checking back or bet folding smaller. If he’s 100% convinced his flush is the nuts he’ll jam over anyhow with an overplay. Like I said I’m just throwing out various player types as I can’t know exactly.
  • Letmewin1 Posts: 1,214Member
    edited January 14
    Clock said:
    pokertime said:
    Not enough people bet their hand with better hands showing and/or bluff IMO. So we just have to value bet everything unless we’d have a lot of history.
    So if you're in his shoes and you river a flush, and you're checked too...are you saying you're not gonna bet?


    You can not make this statement in a vacuum.
    AP
    You should pick a line that nets you the most value taking into consideration ranges and bluff frequencies when it comes to river x/r or betting all 3 streets in the games you play in.
  • RyanRising Posts: 19Subscriber
    Sometimes in this situation a small river bet will either induce a bluff, or if he did hit flush allow him confidently raise thinking he has best hand. Especially if villain is having an off night, possibly even get paid when you reraise.
  • ClockClock Posts: 1,064Subscriber
    edited January 16
    Spoiler:

    I checked because I figured a good player is never calling with a Q 'cause It looks like I have KK-AA minimum here with this line if I bet river.
    For the same reason, I figured any good player would v-bet ANY flush here when I check and after that it's a matter of tilt/leveling/"I'm at the top of my range" :wink: whether he calls off or not...

    V checked back very quickly, I showed and he claimed AQ

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